unlocking the “age of gas”gotcp.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2014-10... · ge oil and gas...
Post on 25-Aug-2020
2 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
GE 2014 All rights Reserved
Unlocking the “Age of Gas”
GE Oil and Gas
International Energy Agency (IEA) Gas & Oil Technologies Implementing Agreement Colorado School of Mines | October 29 2014
Michael Farina Senior Manager, Strategy and Analytics GE Oil and Gas
175 176
131 126
60 56 61
0
100
200
Global Impact 2025:
What is the “Age of Gas”?
Source: IHS, Sept. 2013 2
Key Benefits
SUSTAINABILITY SECURITY - RESILIENCE COMPETITIVENESS
Global gas consumption growth ‘13-’20 Bcm per year
China ME Africa Lat. Am
EU-Eurasia
Asia US-Can
200
100
Primary Global Energy Production %
1990
20%
2025
26%
Natural gas has increasing role in global energy mix
www.ge.com/AgeofGas
Source: GE Age of Gas Outlook update June ‘14
“Age of gas” scorecard October 2014
International
connections Coordination between states on big LNG and pipelines
UCR
unleashed Shale development with technology & sustainable practice
Distributed
pathway Small scale gas solutions
Mega project
progress Cost control & execution
Network
focus Connectivity & investment
Pricing and
contracts Subsidy management & flexible contracts; new models
Australia & Deep-water
inflation
Russia – Ukraine
Crisis
North America &
China progress
Have signposts toward the “Age of Gas” strengthen or weakened?
Africa & South east
Asia, Upstream
North America
US gas cost remain low, Expanding
discussion on new pricing models for Pacific Basin LNG
Steady, but no major changes in
Gov’t policy or focus that would
accelerate NG (eg. EU, US, gas
master plans etc.)
Source: GE Oil and Gas Strategic Marketing
LNG industry evolution continues
4
+7-8% CAGR
‘20 ‘10
105
220
360
+40
‘00
Global LNG demand MTPA ’00 - ‘20
+11% CAGR
Source: GE, CERA
Industry poised to grow 60% over next 5-7 years … but will look very different
LNG designs evolve
Feedstock slate growing
Small-scale LNG
LNG Mega-trains
Floating LNG
Brownfield Regas plant Conversions
LNG 1st gen
Next gen onshore LNG
Stranded gas (big fields)
Offshore Sour Associated
CBM Shale &
tight gas
Arctic Stranded gas
(small fields)
Upside
potential
‘00 ’10 ‘20
LNG network expanding
Europe
China
India
Asia-Pac
LA
JKT
1GE Age of Gas
LNG
LNG demand growth MTPA ‘14-’20
+145
35
32
31
23
12
8
Strike zone for natural gas
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2 4 5 7 8 10 11 13 14 16
Do
lla
rs p
er
MW
Hr
Lower efficiency
Highly efficient
US
EU
Asia
Price
competitive area
Gas Less competitive
Dollar per MMBtu
US Cts/KWH Variable cost basis
GE Global Strategy & Analytics, 2013
Note: Estimates of high efficiency natural gas are based on 10,000 heat rate, while lower
efficiency estimates are based on a 6000 heat rate.
Competitive landscape versus coal …
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
• Competitive landscape different
by region
• Recognize peaking and load following benefits of gas
• Recognize environmental benefits
• Pricing outside the strike zone will
limit market growth … particularly
in Asia
Key Issues
.18
.12
.10
08
.06
.04
.02
.16
.14
Recent spot prices have been in the “strike zone”
Distributed pathway … small gas-to-power
Oil substitution and energy access are drivers…
Key regions for small gas-to-power Key metrics: % oil generation ‘13 est . CAGR elec. dem. ‘14-’20
Indonesia
GCC
Australia- PNG (mining &
remote)
SSA (ex SA) Caribbean
65% +3% 35%
+4% 35% +5%
LatAm * 14% +4%
18% +9%
* Chile, Argen., Colum., Venz.
Sources: GE Oil and Gas , GE PW Feb ‘14 Outlook , IEA
North America (Upstream, mining &
remote)
Large growth opportunity with right structures …
6
Distributed gas … rail and small shipping solutions Cost of small LNG continue to fall … industrial fleets and power opportunities
NGV … Railroad opportunities
Integrating value chain to create comprehensive solution is key
Sources: GE Oil and Gas , GE Distributed Power
Global diesel use in Rail ~ 620K bbl/d
Sources: GE Oil and Gas , GE Distributed Power , IEA 2012, EIA
US Class 1 diesel use in Rail ~ 240K bbl/d ~ 7% US diesel Demand
Generation … Island power examples
US LNG/CNG
Trinidad
Indonesia
Caribbean & Cent. America
Gas to Power potential
2.5 GW
2.7 GW
LNG potential by ’20 *
3.5 MTPA
3.7 MTPA
* Assumes replacement of 30% installed oil capacity & gas captures 50% recip growth . 3-5
Year potential
Sources: EIA, Office of Oil & Gas and CSX,
2013
Example Integration:
Multi model hubs for LNG/CNG USA
Gas pipe existing
Gas Pipe proposed
Marine CNG/LNG
7
0.9 2.1 2.3 2.2
(0.5)
2.9 1.5
6.4 0.4 1.0
2.2
(1.4) (0.9) (0.6) (1.6)
2.5 6.4
11.6
0.2 0.7
4.8
8.1
5.0
US Gas demand trajectory uncertain Power sector use and exports will drive US gas demand
65.7
‘25 ‘20 ‘15 ‘14 ‘18
Total US Gas Demand*
73.5 84.8 ~92 ~100 72.9
Changes in demand by sector from 2013
Mexico Exports
LNG Exports
Canada Imports
Vehicle
Power
Industrial
Res/Com
Power sector gas demand has biggest growth potential … will be sensitive to price and policy
Demand side issues
1
2
3
LNG exports could be big US Gov’t policy and gas
prices will dictate how fast Transportation, Industrial sectors are all lining up for lower cost NG
Sources: GE Oil and Gas , Baseline case Aug ‘14. EIA, Excludes Alaska
* Includes Net Exports
Changes in US Gas Demand ‘14 to ‘25 Billion cubic feet per day
8
Lessons from North America
Upstream
9
Midstream & downstream
Unleash the innovators … build the networks … to unlock the Age of Gas
Source: GE Global Strategy & Analytics “Age of Gas” 2013
Innovation – exploration
Development
Standardization is difficult because
each basin/well is different
+ Fast scale up + Rapid investment - Coordination issues &
constraints
Competitive industry structure
Learning by doing … Integrating infrastructures
Gas with renewable energy
Gas for transportation
Multiple Networks
Hub-and-spoke
Point-to-point Developing
Phase:
Growth Phase:
Mature phase:
Gas network evolution + Pipeline + LNG + CNG
top related