earnings monthenergy: oil & gas drilling 100-101 energy: oil & gas equipment & services 102-103...
TRANSCRIPT
-
Earnings Month
Yardeni Research, Inc.
January 4, 2012
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
Please visit our sites at
www.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
-
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
S&P 500 & Sectors OverviewS&P 500 Index 3S&P 500 Sector Indexes 4S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings 5S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Es 6S&P 500 Sectors Relative Valuation 7S&P 500 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index 8S&P 500 Sectors Operating Profit Margin 9
S&P 500 IndexS&P 500 Index 10-11
Consumer DiscretionaryConsumer Discretionary: Sector 12-13Consumer Discretionary: Advertising 14-15Consumer Discretionary: Apparel, Accessories, & Luxury 16-17Consumer Discretionary: Apparel Retail 18-19Consumer Discretionary: Auto Parts & Equipment 20-21Consumer Discretionary: Automobile Manufacturers 22-23Consumer Discretionary: Automotive Retail 24-25Consumer Discretionary: Broadcasting 26-27Consumer Discretionary: Casinos & Gaming 28-29Consumer Discretionary: Computer & Electronics Retail 30-31Consumer Discretionary: Consumer Electronics 32-33Consumer Discretionary: Department Stores 34-35Consumer Discretionary: Distributors 36-37Consumer Discretionary: Education Services 38-39Consumer Discretionary: General Merchandise Stores 40-41Consumer Discretionary: Home Furnishings 42-43Consumer Discretionary: Home Improvement Retail 44-45Consumer Discretionary: Homebuilding 46-47Consumer Discretionary: Homefurnishing Retail 48-49Consumer Discretionary: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines 50-51Consumer Discretionary: Household Appliances 52-53Consumer Discretionary: Housewares & Specialties 54-55Consumer Discretionary: Internet Retail 56-57Consumer Discretionary: Leisure Products 58-59Consumer Discretionary: Motorcycle Manufacturers 60-61Consumer Discretionary: Movies & Entertainment 62-63Consumer Discretionary: Publishing 64-65Consumer Discretionary: Restaurants 66-67Consumer Discretionary: Specialty Stores 68-69Consumer Discretionary: Tires & Rubber 70-71
Consumer StaplesConsumer Staples: Sector 72-73Consumer Staples: Agricultural Products 74-75
continued...
-
January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Consumer Staples: Distillers & Vintners 76-77Consumer Staples: Drug Retail 78-79Consumer Staples: Food Distributors 80-81Consumer Staples: Food Retail 82-83Consumer Staples: Household Products 84-85Consumer Staples: Hypermarkets & Super Centers 86-87Consumer Staples: Packaged Foods & Meats 88-89Consumer Staples: Soft Drinks 90-91Consumer Staples: Tobacco 92-93
EnergyEnergy: Sector 94-95Energy: Coal & Consumable Fuels 96-97Energy: Integrated Oil & Gas 98-99Energy: Oil & Gas Drilling 100-101Energy: Oil & Gas Equipment & Services 102-103Energy: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production 104-105Energy: Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation 106-107
FinancialsFinancials: Sector 108-109Financials: Diversified Banks 110-111Financials: Insurance Brokers 112-113Financials: Life & Health Insurance 114-115Financials: Multi-Line Insurance 116-117Financials: Other Diversified Financial Services 118-119Financials: Property & Casualty Insurance 120-121Financials: Real Estate Investment Trusts 122-123Financials: Real Estate Services 124-125Financials: Regional Banks 126-127Financials: Specialized Finance 128-129Financials: Thrifts & Mortgage Finance 130-131
Health CareHealth Care: Sector 132-133Health Care: Biotechnology 134-135Health Care: Health Care Distributors 136-137Health Care: Health Care Equipment 138-139Health Care: Health Care Facilities 140-141Health Care: Health Care Services 142-143Health Care: Life Sciences & Tools 144-145Health Care: Managed Health Care 146-147Health Care: Pharmaceuticals 148-149
IndustrialsIndustrials: Sector 150-151Industrials: Aerospace & Defense 152-153Industrials: Air Freight & Logistics 154-155Industrials: Airlines 156-157Industrials: Building Products 158-159Industrials: Construction & Engineering 160-161
continued...
-
January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Industrials: Construction & Farm Machinery & Trucks 162-163Industrials: Electrical Components & Equipment 164-165Industrials: Environmental & Facilities Services 166-167Industrials: Human Resource & Employment Services 168-169Industrials: Industrial Conglomerates 170-171Industrials: Industrial Machinery 172-173Industrials: Office Services & Supplies 174-175Industrials: Railroads 176-177Industrials: Research & Consulting Services 178-179Industrials: Trading Companies & Distributors 180-181Industrials: Transportation 182-183
Information TechnologyIT: Sector 184-185IT: Application Software 186-187IT: Communications Equipment 188-189IT: Computer Hardware 190-191IT: Electronic Equipment Manufacturers 192-193IT: Electronic Manufacturing Services 194-195IT: Home Entertainment Software 196-197IT: Internet Software & Services 198-199IT: IT Consulting & Services 200-201IT: Office Electronics 202-203IT: Semiconductor Equipment 204-205IT: Semiconductors 206-207IT: Systems Software 208-209
MaterialsMaterials: Sector 210-211Materials: Aluminum 212-213Materials: Construction Materials 214-215Materials: Diversified Chemicals 216-217Materials: Diversified Metals & Mining 218-219Materials: Fertilizer & Agricultural Chemicals 220-221Materials: Gold 222-223Materials: Industrial Gases 224-225Materials: Metal & Glass Containers 226-227Materials: Paper Packaging 228-229Materials: Paper Products 230-231Materials: Specialty Chemicals 232-233Materials: Steel 234-235
Telecommunication ServicesTelecommunication Services: Sector 236-237Telecommunication Services: Integrated Telecommunication 238-239Telecommunication Services: Wireless Telecommunication 240-241
UtilitiesUtilities: Sector 242-243Utilities: Electric Utilities 244-245Utilities: Gas Utilities 246-247
continued...
-
January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Utilities: Multi-Utilities 248-249
-
Figure 1.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Dec
S&P 500 INDEX
Stock Price Index
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201230
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110DecS&P 500 INDEX
Forward Earnings*
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20128
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Dec
yardeni.com
S&P 500 INDEX
Forward P/E**
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.** Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Sources for all charts: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Financial, and Haver Analytics.
- S&P 500 Index -
Page 3 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
Figure 2.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14100
200
300
400
Dec
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARYSector Stock Price Index
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14100
200
300
400
Dec
INDUSTRIALS
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14100
200
300
400
Dec
CONSUMER STAPLES
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Dec
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
200
400
600
800
Dec
ENERGY
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14100
150
200
250
300
350
Dec
MATERIALS
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
100
200
300
400
500
600
Dec
FINANCIALS
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
100
200
300
400
Dec
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14100
200
300
400
500
Dec
HEALTH CARE
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1450
100
150
200
250
Dec
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
- S&P 500 Sector Indexes -
Page 4 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
Figure 3.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
DecCONSUMER DISCRETIONARYForward Earnings*
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 148
12
16
20
24
28
DecINDUSTRIALS
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 144
8
12
16
20
24
28
DecCONSUMER STAPLES
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
DecINFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dec
ENERGY
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145
10
15
20
25
Dec
MATERIALS
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
10
20
30
40
50
Dec
FINANCIALS
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 144
6
8
10
12
14
16
Dec
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
DecHEALTH CARE
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Financial
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 148
10
12
14
16
Dec
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
- S&P 500 Sectors Forward Earnings -
Page 5 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
Figure 4.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 148
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
Dec
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
Forward P/E*
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145
10
15
20
25
Dec
INDUSTRIALS
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1410
15
20
25
30
Dec
CONSUMER STAPLES
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 140
10
20
30
40
50
60
Dec
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145
10
15
20
25
30
35
Dec
ENERGY
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145
10
15
20
25
30
35
Dec
MATERIALS
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145
10
15
20
25
Dec
FINANCIALS
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145
10
15
20
25
30
35
Dec
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Dec
HEALTH CARE
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.Source: Thomson Financial.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 145
10
15
20
25
Dec
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
- S&P 500 Sectors Forward P/Es -
Page 6 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
Figure 5.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Dec
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
Forward P/E*/S&P 500 P/E
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.8
.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
Dec
INDUSTRIALS
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
DecCONSUMER STAPLES
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Dec
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Dec
ENERGY
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Dec
MATERIALS
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
Dec
FINANCIALS
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
DecTELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Dec
HEALTH CARE
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.Source: Thomson Financial.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14.4
.6
.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
DecUTILITIES
yardeni.com
- S&P 500 Sectors Relative Valuation -
Page 7 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
Figure 6.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Dec
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
Net Earnings Revisions Index*
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Dec
INDUSTRIALS
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Dec
CONSUMER STAPLES
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Dec
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Dec
ENERGY
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Dec
MATERIALS
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Dec
FINANCIALS
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Dec
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-20
-10
0
10
20
Dec
HEALTH CARE
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Dec
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
- S&P 500 Sectors Net Earnings Revisions Index -
Page 8 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
Figure 7.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Q3
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARYOperating Profit Margin(trailing 4-quarter, %)
SectorS&P 500 Composite
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 125
6
7
8
9
10
Q3
INDUSTRIALS
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 125
6
7
8
9
10
Q3
CONSUMER STAPLES
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 122
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18Q3INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 122
4
6
8
10
12
Q3
ENERGY
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
2
4
6
8
10Q3MATERIALS
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 125
6
7
8
9
10FINANCIALS
Profit margin for the Financialssector is not available from S&P.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 124
6
8
10
12
14
Q2
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 124
6
8
10
12
14
16
Q3
HEALTH CARE
* Operating Margin in percent and based on trailing 4-quarter EPS and sales.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation, Thomson Financial, and Haver Analytics.
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 124
6
8
10UTILITIES
Profit margin for the Utilitiessector is not available from S&P. yardeni.com
- S&P 500 Sectors Operating Profit Margin -
Page 9 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 INDEX*
200-day moving average
Figure 8.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201330
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Dec
10
11
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 9.
- S&P 500 Index -
Page 10 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20138
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
Dec
S&P 500 INDEX VALUATION
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
Figure 10.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 11.
- S&P 500 Index -
Page 11 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201395
145
195
245
295
345
95
145
195
245
295
345
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY INDEX*
200-day moving average
Figure 12.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20135
10
15
20
25
30
5
10
15
20
25
30
Dec
10
11
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 13.
- Consumer Discretionary: Sector -
Page 12 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Dec
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 14.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 15.
- Consumer Discretionary: Sector -
Page 13 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201370
120
170
220
270
320
370
420
470
70
120
170
220
270
320
370
420
470
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 ADVERTISING*(IPG OMC)
200-day moving average
Figure 16.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20135
10
15
20
5
10
15
20
Dec10
11
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 ADVERTISING OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 17.
- Consumer Discretionary: Advertising -
Page 14 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Dec
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 ADVERTISING VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 18.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 ADVERTISING NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 19.
- Consumer Discretionary: Advertising -
Page 15 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201375
125
175
225
275
325
375
75
125
175
225
275
325
375
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 APPAREL, ACCESSORIES, & LUXURY GOODS*(COH RL VFC)
200-day moving average
Figure 20.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20137
12
17
22
27
7
12
17
22
27
Dec
10
11
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 APPAREL, ACCESSORIES, & LUXURY GOODS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 21.
- Consumer Discretionary: Apparel, Accessories, & Luxury -
Page 16 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Dec
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 APPAREL, ACCESSORIES, & LUXURY GOODS VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 22.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 APPAREL, ACCESSORIES, & LUXURY GOODS NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 23.
- Consumer Discretionary: Apparel, Accessories, & Luxury -
Page 17 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201375
175
275
375
475
575
675
775
75
175
275
375
475
575
675
775
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 APPAREL RETAIL*(ANF GPS LTDROST TJXURBN)
200-day moving average
Figure 24.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20137
17
27
37
47
57
67
7
17
27
37
47
57
67
Dec
10
11
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 APPAREL RETAIL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 25.
- Consumer Discretionary: Apparel Retail -
Page 18 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Dec
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 APPAREL RETAIL VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 26.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 APPAREL RETAIL NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 27.
- Consumer Discretionary: Apparel Retail -
Page 19 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201325
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 AUTO PARTS & EQUIPMENT(JCI)
200-day moving average
Figure 28.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
4
8
12
16
20
0
4
8
12
16
20
Dec10
11
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 AUTO PARTS & EQUIPMENT OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 29.
- Consumer Discretionary: Auto Parts & Equipment -
Page 20 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
5
10
15
20
25
30
Dec
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 AUTO PARTS & EQUIPMENT VALUATIONP/E capped at 25due to extreme values.
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 30.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 AUTO PARTS & EQUIPMENT NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 31.
- Consumer Discretionary: Auto Parts & Equipment -
Page 21 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20138
88
168
248
328
408
8
88
168
248
328
408
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURERS*(F)
200-day moving average
Figure 32.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-50
-25
0
25
50
-50
-25
0
25
50
Dec10 11
12 13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURERS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 33.
- Consumer Discretionary: Automobile Manufacturers -
Page 22 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Dec
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
Decyardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURERS VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
P/E capped at 30due to extreme values.
P/E not available from December 2006 to July 2007, and fromMarch 2008 to October 2009 because earnings are negative.
Figure 34.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURERS NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 35.
- Consumer Discretionary: Automobile Manufacturers -
Page 23 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201375
125
175
225
275
325
375
75
125
175
225
275
325
375
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 AUTOMOTIVE RETAIL INDEX*(AN AZO KMX ORLY)
200-day moving average
Figure 36.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20138
13
18
23
8
13
18
23
Dec
10
11
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 AUTOMOTIVE RETAIL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 37.
- Consumer Discretionary: Automotive Retail -
Page 24 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Dec
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 AUTOMOTIVE RETAIL VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 38.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 AUTOMOTIVE RETAIL NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 39.
- Consumer Discretionary: Automotive Retail -
Page 25 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201340
140
240
340
440
540
40
140
240
340
440
540
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 BROADCASTING(CBS DISCA)
200-day moving average
Figure 40.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-10
0
10
20
30
40
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Dec
10
11
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 BROADCASTING OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 41.
- Consumer Discretionary: Broadcasting -
Page 26 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dec
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 BROADCASTING VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
P/E capped at 50.
P/E not available from 1996 to 2002 because forward earnings were negative.
Figure 42.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 BROADCASTING NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 43.
- Consumer Discretionary: Broadcasting -
Page 27 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013100
500
900
1300
1700
2100
100
500
900
1300
1700
2100
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 CASINOS & GAMING*(IGT WYNN)
200-day moving average
Figure 44.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20135
25
45
65
85
5
25
45
65
85
Dec10
11
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 CASINOS & GAMING OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 45.
- Consumer Discretionary: Casinos & Gaming -
Page 28 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Dec
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 CASINOS & GAMING VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 46.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 CASINOS & GAMING NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 47.
- Consumer Discretionary: Casinos & Gaming -
Page 29 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201375
125
175
225
275
325
375
425
475
75
125
175
225
275
325
375
425
475
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAIL*(BBY GME)
200-day moving average
Figure 48.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20135
10
15
20
25
30
5
10
15
20
25
30
Dec10
11
1213
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAIL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 49.
- Consumer Discretionary: Computer & Electronics Retail -
Page 30 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Dec
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
Decyardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAIL VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 50.
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAIL NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 51.
- Consumer Discretionary: Computer & Electronics Retail -
Page 31 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20135
35
65
95
125
155
185
5
35
65
95
125
155
185
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 CONSUMER ELECTRONICS INDEX*(HAR)
200-day moving average
Figure 52.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-2
0
2
4
6
-2
0
2
4
6
Dec
10
11
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 CONSUMER ELECTRONICS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 53.
- Consumer Discretionary: Consumer Electronics -
Page 32 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
Dec
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 CONSUMER ELECTRONICS VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
P/E not available fromMay 2009 to August 2009because earnings were negative.
P/E capped at 25.
Figure 54.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 CONSUMER ELECTRONICS NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 55.
- Consumer Discretionary: Consumer Electronics -
Page 33 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201350
100
150
200
250
300
350
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 DEPARTMENT STORES*(JCP JWN KSS M SHLD)
200-day moving average
Figure 56.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20134
8
12
16
20
24
4
8
12
16
20
24
Dec
10
11
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 DEPARTMENT STORES OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 57.
- Consumer Discretionary: Department Stores -
Page 34 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Dec
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 DEPARTMENT STORES VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 58.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 DEPARTMENT STORES NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 59.
- Consumer Discretionary: Department Stores -
Page 35 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201375
100
125
150
175
200
225
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 DISTRIBUTORS*(GPC)
200-day moving average
Figure 60.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20137
9
11
13
15
7
9
11
13
15
Dec
10
11
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 DISTRIBUTORS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 61.
- Consumer Discretionary: Distributors -
Page 36 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Dec
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 DISTRIBUTORS VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 62.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 DISTRIBUTORS NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 63.
- Consumer Discretionary: Distributors -
Page 37 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201340
60
80
100
120
140
40
60
80
100
120
140
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 EDUCATION SERVICES INDEX*(APOL DV)
200-day moving average
Figure 64.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20133
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Dec
10
11
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 EDUCATION SERVICES OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 65.
- Consumer Discretionary: Education Services -
Page 38 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
5
10
15
20
25
30
Dec
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 EDUCATION SERVICES VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 66.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 EDUCATION SERVICES NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 67.
- Consumer Discretionary: Education Services -
Page 39 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201375
175
275
375
475
575
675
775
875
75
175
275
375
475
575
675
775
875
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES*(BIG FDO TGT)
200-day moving average
Figure 68.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20135
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
5
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
Dec10
11
12 13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 69.
- Consumer Discretionary: General Merchandise Stores -
Page 40 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Dec
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 70.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 GENERAL MERCHANDISE STORES NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 71.
- Consumer Discretionary: General Merchandise Stores -
Page 41 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201340
70
100
130
160
190
40
70
100
130
160
190
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 HOME FURNISHINGS*(LEG)
200-day moving average
Figure 72.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Dec
10
11
12 13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOME FURNISHINGS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 73.
- Consumer Discretionary: Home Furnishings -
Page 42 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
5
10
15
20
25
5
10
15
20
25
Dec
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOME FURNISHINGS VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 74.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOME FURNISHINGS NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 75.
- Consumer Discretionary: Home Furnishings -
Page 43 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201375
150
225
300
375
450
525
600
675
75
150
225
300
375
450
525
600
675
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL*(HD LOW SHW)
200-day moving average
Figure 76.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20133
11
19
27
35
43
3
11
19
27
35
43
Dec
1011
1213
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 77.
- Consumer Discretionary: Home Improvement Retail -
Page 44 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Dec
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 78.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 79.
- Consumer Discretionary: Home Improvement Retail -
Page 45 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201375
275
475
675
875
1075
1275
1475
75
275
475
675
875
1075
1275
1475
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 HOMEBUILDING*(DHI LEN PHM)
200-day moving average
Figure 80.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-50
0
50
100
150
200
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Dec
1011
12 13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOMEBUILDING OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 81.
- Consumer Discretionary: Homebuilding -
Page 46 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Dec
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOMEBUILDING VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
P/E not available fromJuly 2007 to January 2010because earnings were negative.
P/E capped at 30.
Figure 82.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOMEBUILDING NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 83.
- Consumer Discretionary: Homebuilding -
Page 47 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201340
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 HOMEFURNISHING RETAIL INDEX*(BBBY)
200-day moving average
Figure 84.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20134
6
8
10
12
14
4
6
8
10
12
14
Dec
10 11
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOMEFURNISHING RETAIL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 85.
- Consumer Discretionary: Homefurnishing Retail -
Page 48 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Dec
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOMEFURNISHING RETAIL VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 86.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOMEFURNISHINGS RETAIL NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 87.
- Consumer Discretionary: Homefurnishing Retail -
Page 49 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201360
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
300
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
270
300
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 HOTELS, RESORTS & CRUISE LINES*(CCL HOT MAR WYN)
200-day moving average
Figure 88.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20135
7
9
11
13
15
17
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
Dec
10
11
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOTELS, RESORTS & CRUISE LINES OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 89.
- Consumer Discretionary: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines -
Page 50 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
5
10
15
20
25
30
Dec
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOTELS, RESORTS & CRUISE LINES VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 90.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOTELS, RESORTS & CRUISE LINES NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 91.
- Consumer Discretionary: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines -
Page 51 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201370
100
130
160
190
220
250
280
310
70
100
130
160
190
220
250
280
310
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES*(SNA SWK WHR)
200-day moving average
Figure 92.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20138
13
18
23
28
33
38
43
8
13
18
23
28
33
38
43
Dec10
11
1213
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 93.
- Consumer Discretionary: Household Appliances -
Page 52 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Dec
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 94.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 95.
- Consumer Discretionary: Household Appliances -
Page 53 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201325
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 HOUSEWARES & SPECIALTIES*(FO NWL)
200-day moving average
Figure 96.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20134
6
8
10
12
14
16
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Dec
10
11
12 13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOUSEWARES & SPECIALTIES OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 97.
- Consumer Discretionary: Housewares & Specialties -
Page 54 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Dec
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOUSEWARES & SPECIALTIES VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 98.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 HOUSEWARES & SPECIALTIES NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 99.
- Consumer Discretionary: Housewares & Specialties -
Page 55 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201375
275
475
675
875
1075
1275
75
275
475
675
875
1075
1275
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 INTERNET RETAIL*(AMZN EXPE PCLN)
200-day moving average
Figure 100.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131.5
11.5
21.5
31.5
41.5
1.5
11.5
21.5
31.5
41.5
Dec
1011
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 INTERNET RETAIL OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 101.
- Consumer Discretionary: Internet Retail -
Page 56 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Dec
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20131.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 INTERNET RETAIL VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 102.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 INTERNET RETAIL NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 103.
- Consumer Discretionary: Internet Retail -
Page 57 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201360
90
120
150
180
210
240
60
90
120
150
180
210
240
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 LEISURE PRODUCTS*(HAS MAT)
200-day moving average
Figure 104.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20135
10
15
20
5
10
15
20
Dec
10
11
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 LEISURE PRODUCTS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 105.
- Consumer Discretionary: Leisure Products -
Page 58 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Dec
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 LEISURE PRODUCTS VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 106.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 LEISURE PRODUCTS NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 107.
- Consumer Discretionary: Leisure Products -
Page 59 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201320
60
100
140
180
220
260
20
60
100
140
180
220
260
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 MOTORCYCLE MANUFACTURERS*(HOG)
200-day moving average
Figure 108.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132
5
8
11
14
17
20
2
5
8
11
14
17
20
Dec
10
11
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 MOTORCYCLE MANUFACTURERS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 109.
- Consumer Discretionary: Motorcycle Manufacturers -
Page 60 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Dec
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
.25
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
Dec
yardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 MOTORCYCLE MANUFACTURERS VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 110.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 MOTORCYCLE MANUFACTURERS NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 111.
- Consumer Discretionary: Motorcycle Manufacturers -
Page 61 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201350
125
200
275
350
425
50
125
200
275
350
425
1/3
yardeni.com
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
S&P 500 MOVIES & ENTERTAINMENT*(DIS NWS.A TWX VIA.B)
200-day moving average
Figure 112.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132.5
6.5
10.5
14.5
18.5
2.5
6.5
10.5
14.5
18.5
Dec
10
11
12
13
yardeni.com
* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 MOVIES & ENTERTAINMENT OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE(analysts’ average forecasts, ratio scale)
Consensus Forecasts__________________
Annual Estimates
12-Month Forward*
Figure 113.
- Consumer Discretionary: Movies & Entertainment -
Page 62 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Dec
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Decyardeni.com
* Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data.** Sector or industry forward P/E relative to S&P 500 forward P/E.
Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 MOVIES & ENTERTAINMENT VALUATION
Forward P/E*
Relative P/E**
Figure 114.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Dec
yardeni.com
* Three-month moving average of the number of estimates up less number of estimates down, expressed as a percentage of the total number of estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters.
S&P 500 MOVIES & ENTERTAINMENT NET EARNINGS REVISIONS*
Figure 115.
- Consumer Discretionary: Movies & Entertainment -
Page 63 / January 4, 2012 / Earnings Month www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 201350
125
200
275
350
425
50
125
200
275
350
425
1/3