uk electrification: the road to 2050 - investment bank · 2020. 2. 18. · the road to 2050 in the...

Under the UK’s new electric vehicle policy, electric vehicles are likely to need 23 teraWatt hours by 2030 and 56tWh by 2050, equivalent to 7% and 17% of total 2016 UK power demand.

One teraWatt =

1,000,000,000,000 WattsAn average fridge consumes 35 Watts per day

Power-guzzlers

Investment needed Supporting the growth in demand for energy will require significant investment in renewable energy, replacing ageing infrastructure, installing smart energy systems and electric vehicle charging stations, and providing adequate energy storage facilities.

More than £185bn

by 2030

More than £396bn

by 2050

0 100 200 300 400£(bn)

Power needed to keep EVs on the road

56tWh

2050

2030

23tWh

The UK is committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% between 1990 and 2050

Solar and wind power are known as intermittent renewables, and in the UK supply is well matched to demand on a monthly/seasonal basis: more sun in summer and even more wind in winter.

However, on a daily basis in winter when demand is at its highest, the coldest temperatures are typically accompanied by low wind speeds. This results in an inverse correlation between demand and supply. Reliable energy storage is thus essential.

Lithium-ion batteries are crucial for storing the unreliable energy output of intermittent renewables. But for longer-duration energy storage and output requirements, pumped-storage hydroelectricity and hydrogen offer far superior economics, making a mixed-technology solution most viable.

The way energy is generated is changing rapidly around the world, and governments, organisations, investors and individuals are all in search of effective ways to adapt. A successful transformation to a low-carbon future requires a focus on new technologies low on CO2 with substantial investment in efficient energy storage, electric vehicle charging infrastructure and smart energy systems.

2040Sale of ICE cars and vans banned

2050Use of ICE vehicles banned

Harnessing weather to meet demand

The Energy Revolution

Storing good energy

Currently, ground transport and heating are two of the largest carbon emitters, together producing nearly two and a half times the amount of CO2 generated by power stations in 2016. They’re also huge energy consumers, using roughly the same amount of energy that was electrified in 2016.

Electric vehicles (EVs) could help lower pollution, but it depends on where they source their electricity. If, for example, an EV is charged by electricity from a standard coal power station, it will emit nearly twice as much CO2 during its

lifespan as a similar vehicle with an internal combustion engine (ICE).

Power stationsDown 61%

HeatingDown 16%

Road transportDown 0.7%

How the UK has reduced its CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2016

Emissions depend on the energy source

The biggest emitters

The law of the land

Electric vehicles to the rescue?

Comparing the emissions of electric* and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles over their life cycle

*265 mile range. Source: Drax, UCSUSA, IVL, UK Government, RAC, Barclays Research estimates

Coal Open cycle gas turbine used at peak hours only

Average combined cycle gas turbine

(CCGT)

High-efficiency CCGT

DRAX power station biomass

1.2x

0.8x

0.4x

0x

1.6x

2x

17%UK power stations'

contribution to greenhouse gases

in 2016

40%Heating & ground

transport's contribution to emissions

in 2016

Source: Company Reports, Barclays Research estimates

National Grid predicted range

National Grid predicted average

Barclays predictions

Hydrogen storage

Pumped-storage hydroelectricity

Power station

Lower reservoir

Turbine

Upper reservoir

Water pumped up for storage

Water flows down to generate

electricity

1990 2016

Source: Committee on Climate Change, UK Government, Barclays Research Estimates.

Source: Company reports, Barclays Research Estimates.

With the electrification of transport and heating, the UK's appetite for power will increase. It will need to be met in new and innovative ways over the coming

decades to meet demand and reduce emissions. Compared to 2016, demand for power will grow 6% by 2030 and 22% by 2050.

Hungry for power

Total electricity demand

UK electrification: the road to 2050

In the coming decades, transportation and heating in the UK will increasingly be powered by electricity. To ensure this rise goes hand-in-hand with a reduction in

greenhouse gases, renewable energy will become even more important.

So what will it take for the UK to seize the opportunities and overcome the challenges ahead in the Energy Revolution?

Avg comparable ICE

1.9x

1.5x

1.3x1.2x

0.7x

300

320

340

360

380

400

420tWh

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