transport without oil - a vision of the future

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com

Transportation without Oil A Vision of the Future

Climate ChangeWhat is your view?

A: It’s a very serious looming crisisB: I’m confused, not sure what to make of itC: It’s overblown. Earth’s climate has always been variable

Transportation without Oil

What is your view? A: Yes, I believe it’s possibleB: I don’t know if it’s possibleC: No, it is not possible.

Transportation in the Past

We have been walking for 4 million years

Transportation in the Past

We have been riding horses for 6,000 years

The 13th Century

The 15th Century

The 17th Century

The 19th Century

New York, 1894

The First Modern OilPetrolia, Ontario 1858

Spindletop Texas, 1903

Thomas Parker electric car, 1880s

The 20th Century

The 21st Century

We love you mama

Mama, waaah! Where are you?

1: The Death Toll

Globally, in 2013, 1.24 million people died in road accidents

3,400 people die every day= 13 major aircraft crashes every day

Road deaths per 100,000 peopleIf everyone drove as safely as the

British, there would be 192,500 road deaths a year

= 2 major aircraft crashes every day

Eritrea: 40Thailand: 38Canada: 7UK: 2.75

Bicycle

2: Air Pollution

About 21,000 Canadians die

prematurely from the ill effects of air pollution each year, compared to 2,400

from traffic crashes.

Paris, March 2014

Diesel exhaust…

Deaths from lung cancer increase by 8% for every 10 mg of fine particulate matter per cubic meter

New York: 16 mg Chicago: 18 mg

Los Angeles: 20 mgParis: 30 mg

Paris 2014: 140Cairo: 159 mgNew Delhi:

177 mgBeijing: 120 to 473 mg

Diesel exhaust contributes to more than 125,000 cases of cancer a year,

almost 9% of all cancer cases in the US.

Formaldehyde Recognized carcinogen. Carbon tetrachloride Recognized carcinogen. Ranked as one of the most hazardous

compounds to ecosystems and human health. Aniline Recognized carcinogen. Methanol Suspected carcinogen. Benzene Recognized carcinogen. Acetaldehyde Recognized carcinogenToluene-2, 6-diisocyanate Recognized carcinogen.

Ranked as one of the most hazardous compounds to human health. Napthalene Recognized carcinogen. Ethylbenzene Recognized carcinogen. Styrene Suspected carcinogen. 1,3 Butadiene Recognized carcinogen. Toluene Recognized developmental toxicant.Toluen-2, 4-diisocyanate Recognized carcinogen. 2,6-Dinitrotoluene Recognized carcinogen. Phosphorous (yellow or white) Ranked as one of the most hazardous compounds to ecosystems

and human health. Dinitrotoluene (mixed isonomers) Suspected carcinogen. Chromium and its compounds Suspected carcinogen. Cobalt and its compounds Recognized carcinogen. Manganese and its compounds Ranked as one of the most hazardous compounds to human health. Nickel and its compounds Recognized carcinogen

“Found in diesel engine exhaust”

Assembled by Leo Petrilli, Windsor, OntarioCommission for Environmental Cooperation Report

Children’s Health and the Environment in North America

3: Oil Spills

TransMountain Pipeline Oil BreakBurnaby, 2007

Alberta PipelineIncidents 1975-2013

29,229 incidents

4: Ecocide

Garth Lenz

Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

5: War

6: The Climate Emergency

As we burn the fossil fuels…

Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.cowww.earthfuture.com m

CO2 CO2 CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second

+ 2˚C rise

The last time the world was 3°C warmer

the sea level was 25 metres higher

2 metres

10 metres

18 metres

25 metres

1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

20 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

The Teeny-Weeny Ever-So-Brief

150-Year Age of Oil

Neolithic EraAncient Egypt

Roman EmpireIslamic Golden Age

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

The Age of Oil……………………………………….

The last 10,000 years

The last 10,000 years...................................................

What happens here,when we stop using oil?

A billion yearsNeolithic Era: 8,000 yearsAncient Egypt: 3,000 yearsRoman Empire: 1,000 yearsIslamic Golden Age: 600 yearsAge of Oil: 150 years

The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years

A billion years

The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

And with every passing year, solar technology will improve

and get cheaper.

Beyond Oil Awakening the Future

BCSEA 2012www.bcsea.org

BCSEA vision is a sustainable future in which all of BC’s

energy is green and renewable.

How Are We Using the Oil?Cars & light trucks 40%Heavy trucks 13%Flying 8%Shipping 2.5%Asphalt 3%Rail freight 1%Recreational 1%Military 1.5%

TOTAL TRANSPORT 71%

Non-transport uses 29%

1 5% shift to walking

Neighbourhood Walkability Auditwww.walklive.org

Istanbul,Turkey

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Toronto Walking School Bus

The Journey Beyond Oil

Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand

2 15% shift to cycling

In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement is by bicycle

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

Safe bike lanes and routes Good bike parking Cycling education in schools

Vancouver, Howe Street

City Bike Sharing

Granville Street BridgeVancouver’s Future

Proposed Bike Park, Chongming Bike City, Shanghai

Electric Bikes

The Copenhagen Wheel

The Elf E-Bike www.organictransit.com

Tony’s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comTony’s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Tony’s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com

Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …

3 v15% shift to transit and LRT

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com 100% Electric Buses

Hasselt, BelgiumFree transit, included in city taxes1996-2006 13-fold increase in ridership

Real-time electronic bus stops

Bus shelter in Taiwan

Stockholm – 200 buses run on biogas from sewage treatment

Umea, SwedenFast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day

1 – 2 euros for 10-20 kWh electricity to go 10 kmwww.opbrid.com

OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

Bus Rapid Transit in Bogota

Bus Rapid Transit in Curitiba, Brazil

Bus Rapid Transit in Delhi

Bus Rapid Transit in Istanbul

Bus Rapid Transit in Rio de Janiero

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comBus Rapid Transit in Guangzhou, China

Proposed Bus Rapid Transit in Chicago

Light Rail Transitwww.islandtransformations.org

Electric + Green Electricity = No Climate Impact

Mulhouse, Germany

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Electric + Green Electricity = No Climate Impact

Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …

4 5% shift to Telework

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Cisco Systems

Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …

5 v5% shift to Ride-Sharing

Real-time Ride-sharingwww.car.ma

Guaranteed emergency ride homeCash-out parking – paid for not using employee

parking spaceRideshare Plus Rewards Book

Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …

650 members share 23 vehicles

www.victoriacarshare.ca

6 5% shift to Car Sharing

Car-sharing forecast North America 2016:

4.4 million usersDavid Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan,

Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing

Vehicles owners earnup to $300 a month

Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …

7 Better Inter-ModalConnections

Single Smart Card for transit, LRT, car-share,

ride-share, ferries, rail

Good transit-ferry connections

Good bike-parking at every transit station

Transport London’s Oyster Card

Walk Bike

Food Help

ParkRide share

Ski-lift

Ferry Fly

Car share

LRTTransit

8 New Urban Design

Metro do Porto, Portugal

9 50% shift to Hybrid EVs

80% of average mileage on electric drive

Chevy Volt2,500 km on one tank of gas

Volkswagen XL1Diesel plug-in hybrid

75 km battery range0.9 litres/100 km (312 mpg)

(260 mpg in USA)

Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …50% of vehicles hybrid electric = 30% 80% of mileage electric

10 v50% shift to Full Electric Vehicles

Renault Twizy EV 2 seats, 100 km range 80 kph, 3.5 hours recharge $9,700 + $60/month battery lease

In UK: $10,600 + $65 monthly battery lease charge

Hiroko EV

Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range

Smart Electric – 135 km range

Mitsubishi MiEV – 150 km range

Toyota RAV4 EV - 148 km range

Tesla Model-X: 300-400 km range

STELLA 400-600 km range

Made by Dutch students at Eindhoven University

4-seater, roadworthy, legal in HollandWeighs 380 kg (1120 kg for normal EV)

400 km range with no sunshine600 km in full sunshine

Honda solar electric car charging

Electric car fast charging

1.5 kW solar = 1,650 kWh a yearElectric car: 15 kWh = 100 km

10,000 km = 1,500 kWh

PV for EV

1.5 kW solar PV $6,000

5% 25 year mortgage on $6,000 = $35 a monthGas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month

100 km = 15 kWh10,000 km = 1,500 kWh

1,500 kwh @ 10 cents = $13 a monthGas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month

Grid Power for EV

EV Bargain!!10 times cheaper

to run!

Institute of Automobile Economics:

EV maintenance costs are 35% lower

than a gas compact car over 8 years.

Solar RoadwaysIn US, 3 x total electricity demand

www.solarroadways.com

Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …50% vehicles hybrid EV 80% = 30% …50% of vehicles are electric = 5% …Lightweight design saves 50% = 2.5% …If all vehicles EVs = 0.0% …

= Beyond Oil

Integrated Governance

CyclingTransit

HighwaysRail

Integrated Cost Analysis

$CyclingTransit

HighwaysRail

Cost of a new traffic lane$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour

Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping

2,000 trips per hour = 75 to 250 times more cost-effective

Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping

2,000 trips per hour = 75 to 250 times more cost-effective

$35,000 to $150,000 per km when road widening required = 5 to 35 times more cost-effective

Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Ontario Bikeways Planning and Design Guidelines, pg. 8-34, March 1996.

Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping2,000 trips per hour

= 75 to 250 times more cost-effective

$35,000 to $150,000 per km when road widening required = 5 to 35 times more cost-effective

Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Ontario Bikeways Planning and Design Guidelines, pg. 8-34, March 1996.

Cost of a new separated bike lane $100,000 per km

= 7 to 12 times more cost-effective

Cost of the Airport McTavish Interchange$24 million

= 2,400 km of painted bike lanesor 240 km of separated bike lanes

Carbon Taxes Feebates Road tolls

How can we pay for it?

Electronic Road Pricing

Road-pricing on the Malahat

30,000 vehicles a day$2 one-way toll = $60,000 a day

= 250 luxury coaches= up to 10,000 passengers a day

Electric Freight

Renault Radiance Dutch concept electric truck

Average 18-wheeler 6.5 mpg Super-efficient designs 9 mpg

Cargohopper3 tonnes max60 km range20 kph top speedUrban deliveriesHolland

www.cargohopper.com

Freight Solutions - Trucking

Super-efficient designs save 35% Electric plug-in to eliminate idling saves 8% Slower driving saves 8% ‘Empty miles’ shipping saves 5-15% Combined innovations could save 60%

But 60% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.

Shipping Solutions

2.5% of global oil use

Slowing from 25 to 20 knots – saves 50% Slowing from 23.5 to 20 knots - saves 25% Skysails on slow boats (10 knots) - saves 20% Ecospeed coating and underwater cleaning – saves 20% Underwater propellor polishing – saves 2% Black carbon elimination through cleaner fuel

But 50% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.

Flying Solutions

8% of global oil use

Latest designs save 20%

But a 20% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.

Future Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane

Proposed EADS VoltAir lithium-air battery aircraftSuperconducting electric motors

Paris Airshow, 2011Up to Mach 4, Paris – Tokyo in 2.5 hours

Renewable Electricity

So what’s

The Secretto make it all happen?

Community engagement

Special Price

Together, we can change the world.If you’re feeling inspired, will you

join the BCSEA?

You can become a member!www.bcsea.org/join

BCSEA 2013 www.bcsea.org

This whole presentation is available on

www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

How can we make it happen?

Questions

Discussion

D'où venons-nous? Que sommes-nous? Où allons-nous?

Where Do We Come From? What Are We?

Where Are We Going??

Voyager 1 photo of Earth from 6 billion kilometers.

The Universe has taken

13 billion years

to create us

Number of stars in the Universe

1024: 1 trillion trillion

Number of atoms in your body:

1027: 1000 trillion trillion

All self-organized into one amazing whole

Number of stars in our galaxy

100 trillion

Number of synapses in your brain

100 trillion

All self-organized into one amazing whole

100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars

We are amazing… and we are all conscious

We have free will We can make a difference

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013

www.earthfuture.com

This is about us, our planet,and our future.

Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

transport without oil - a vision of the future

Automotive

give them vision without limits

transport | 2020 vision for a sustainable society

a vision up to 2036. transport strategy

supervision without vision: risk governance and pmscs

ericsson.com intelligent transport without limits ·...

transport management solutions – shipping without · pdf...

bunbury integrated land use & transport vision 2030

coventry transport museum vision

wayfinding without vision

how to improve vision without glasses

viver – a sustainable transport vision for...

transport planning: vision and practice - citeseer

100329 - air transport review final without annexes

2020 vision without glasses

vision without glasses download

vision one security without sacrifice

action without vision is only passing time vision without...

navigating without vision: principles of blind spatial

source: peter senge, the fifth discipline vision without...

west of england joint transport study transport vision...