transport without oil - a vision of the future

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com

Transportation without Oil A Vision of the Future


Climate ChangeWhat is your view?

A: It’s a very serious looming crisisB: I’m confused, not sure what to make of itC: It’s overblown. Earth’s climate has always been variable


Transportation without Oil

What is your view? A: Yes, I believe it’s possibleB: I don’t know if it’s possibleC: No, it is not possible.


Transportation in the Past

We have been walking for 4 million years


Transportation in the Past

We have been riding horses for 6,000 years


The 13th Century


The 15th Century


The 17th Century


The 19th Century


New York, 1894


The First Modern OilPetrolia, Ontario 1858


Spindletop Texas, 1903


Thomas Parker electric car, 1880s


The 20th Century


The 21st Century


We love you mama


Mama, waaah! Where are you?


1: The Death Toll


Globally, in 2013, 1.24 million people died in road accidents

3,400 people die every day= 13 major aircraft crashes every day


Road deaths per 100,000 peopleIf everyone drove as safely as the

British, there would be 192,500 road deaths a year

= 2 major aircraft crashes every day

Eritrea: 40Thailand: 38Canada: 7UK: 2.75

Bicycle


2: Air Pollution

About 21,000 Canadians die

prematurely from the ill effects of air pollution each year, compared to 2,400

from traffic crashes.


Paris, March 2014


Diesel exhaust…

Deaths from lung cancer increase by 8% for every 10 mg of fine particulate matter per cubic meter

New York: 16 mg Chicago: 18 mg

Los Angeles: 20 mgParis: 30 mg

Paris 2014: 140Cairo: 159 mgNew Delhi:

177 mgBeijing: 120 to 473 mg


Diesel exhaust contributes to more than 125,000 cases of cancer a year,

almost 9% of all cancer cases in the US.


Formaldehyde Recognized carcinogen. Carbon tetrachloride Recognized carcinogen. Ranked as one of the most hazardous

compounds to ecosystems and human health. Aniline Recognized carcinogen. Methanol Suspected carcinogen. Benzene Recognized carcinogen. Acetaldehyde Recognized carcinogenToluene-2, 6-diisocyanate Recognized carcinogen.

Ranked as one of the most hazardous compounds to human health. Napthalene Recognized carcinogen. Ethylbenzene Recognized carcinogen. Styrene Suspected carcinogen. 1,3 Butadiene Recognized carcinogen. Toluene Recognized developmental toxicant.Toluen-2, 4-diisocyanate Recognized carcinogen. 2,6-Dinitrotoluene Recognized carcinogen. Phosphorous (yellow or white) Ranked as one of the most hazardous compounds to ecosystems

and human health. Dinitrotoluene (mixed isonomers) Suspected carcinogen. Chromium and its compounds Suspected carcinogen. Cobalt and its compounds Recognized carcinogen. Manganese and its compounds Ranked as one of the most hazardous compounds to human health. Nickel and its compounds Recognized carcinogen

“Found in diesel engine exhaust”

Assembled by Leo Petrilli, Windsor, OntarioCommission for Environmental Cooperation Report

Children’s Health and the Environment in North America


3: Oil Spills


TransMountain Pipeline Oil BreakBurnaby, 2007


Alberta PipelineIncidents 1975-2013

29,229 incidents


4: Ecocide

Garth Lenz


Garth Lenz


Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com


5: War


6: The Climate Emergency



As we burn the fossil fuels…

Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.cowww.earthfuture.com m

CO2 CO2 CO2

CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second



+ 2˚C rise


The last time the world was 3°C warmer

the sea level was 25 metres higher


2 metres

10 metres

18 metres

25 metres


1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net


3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net


20 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net



The Teeny-Weeny Ever-So-Brief

150-Year Age of Oil



Neolithic EraAncient Egypt

Roman EmpireIslamic Golden Age

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

The Age of Oil……………………………………….

The last 10,000 years



The last 10,000 years...................................................

What happens here,when we stop using oil?



A billion yearsNeolithic Era: 8,000 yearsAncient Egypt: 3,000 yearsRoman Empire: 1,000 yearsIslamic Golden Age: 600 yearsAge of Oil: 150 years

The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years



A billion years

The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

And with every passing year, solar technology will improve

and get cheaper.


Beyond Oil Awakening the Future


BCSEA 2012www.bcsea.org

BCSEA vision is a sustainable future in which all of BC’s

energy is green and renewable.


How Are We Using the Oil?Cars & light trucks 40%Heavy trucks 13%Flying 8%Shipping 2.5%Asphalt 3%Rail freight 1%Recreational 1%Military 1.5%

TOTAL TRANSPORT 71%

Non-transport uses 29%


1 5% shift to walking


Neighbourhood Walkability Auditwww.walklive.org


Istanbul,Turkey

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Toronto Walking School Bus


The Journey Beyond Oil

Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand


2 15% shift to cycling


In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement is by bicycle


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com


Safe bike lanes and routes Good bike parking Cycling education in schools


Vancouver, Howe Street


City Bike Sharing


Granville Street BridgeVancouver’s Future


Proposed Bike Park, Chongming Bike City, Shanghai


Electric Bikes


The Copenhagen Wheel


The Elf E-Bike www.organictransit.com


Tony’s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comTony’s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Tony’s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com



Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …


3 v15% shift to transit and LRT

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com 100% Electric Buses


Hasselt, BelgiumFree transit, included in city taxes1996-2006 13-fold increase in ridership


Real-time electronic bus stops


Bus shelter in Taiwan


Stockholm – 200 buses run on biogas from sewage treatment


Umea, SwedenFast-Charging Electric Bus, 18 hours/day

1 – 2 euros for 10-20 kWh electricity to go 10 kmwww.opbrid.com


OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea


Bus Rapid Transit in Bogota


Bus Rapid Transit in Curitiba, Brazil


Bus Rapid Transit in Delhi


Bus Rapid Transit in Istanbul


Bus Rapid Transit in Rio de Janiero

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comBus Rapid Transit in Guangzhou, China


Proposed Bus Rapid Transit in Chicago


Light Rail Transitwww.islandtransformations.org


Electric + Green Electricity = No Climate Impact


Mulhouse, Germany


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Electric + Green Electricity = No Climate Impact



Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …


4 5% shift to Telework

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Cisco Systems



Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …


5 v5% shift to Ride-Sharing


Real-time Ride-sharingwww.car.ma


Guaranteed emergency ride homeCash-out parking – paid for not using employee

parking spaceRideshare Plus Rewards Book



Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …


See

650 members share 23 vehicles

www.victoriacarshare.ca

6 5% shift to Car Sharing


Car-sharing forecast North America 2016:

4.4 million usersDavid Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan,


Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing

Vehicles owners earnup to $300 a month



Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …


7 Better Inter-ModalConnections

Single Smart Card for transit, LRT, car-share,

ride-share, ferries, rail

Good transit-ferry connections

Good bike-parking at every transit station


Transport London’s Oyster Card


Walk Bike

Food Help

Taxi

Skype

ParkRide share

Ski-lift

Maps

Ferry Fly

Car share

LRTTransit

Rail


8 New Urban Design


Metro do Porto, Portugal


9 50% shift to Hybrid EVs

80% of average mileage on electric drive



Chevy Volt2,500 km on one tank of gas


Volkswagen XL1Diesel plug-in hybrid

75 km battery range0.9 litres/100 km (312 mpg)

(260 mpg in USA)



Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …50% of vehicles hybrid electric = 30% 80% of mileage electric


10 v50% shift to Full Electric Vehicles


Renault Twizy EV 2 seats, 100 km range 80 kph, 3.5 hours recharge $9,700 + $60/month battery lease


In UK: $10,600 + $65 monthly battery lease charge

Top


Top

Hiroko EV


Top



Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range



Smart Electric – 135 km range


Mitsubishi MiEV – 150 km range



Toyota RAV4 EV - 148 km range


Tesla Model-X: 300-400 km range


STELLA 400-600 km range


Made by Dutch students at Eindhoven University

4-seater, roadworthy, legal in HollandWeighs 380 kg (1120 kg for normal EV)

400 km range with no sunshine600 km in full sunshine



Honda solar electric car charging



Electric car fast charging


1.5 kW solar = 1,650 kWh a yearElectric car: 15 kWh = 100 km

10,000 km = 1,500 kWh

PV for EV


1.5 kW solar PV $6,000

5% 25 year mortgage on $6,000 = $35 a monthGas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month


100 km = 15 kWh10,000 km = 1,500 kWh

1,500 kwh @ 10 cents = $13 a monthGas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month

Grid Power for EV

EV Bargain!!10 times cheaper

to run!


Institute of Automobile Economics:

EV maintenance costs are 35% lower

than a gas compact car over 8 years.


Solar RoadwaysIn US, 3 x total electricity demand

www.solarroadways.com



Cars & light trucks5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …50% vehicles hybrid EV 80% = 30% …50% of vehicles are electric = 5% …Lightweight design saves 50% = 2.5% …If all vehicles EVs = 0.0% …

= Beyond Oil


Integrated Governance

CyclingTransit

HighwaysRail


Integrated Cost Analysis

$CyclingTransit

HighwaysRail

$


Cost of a new traffic lane$300,000 to $500,000 per km 800 vehicles per hour



Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping

2,000 trips per hour = 75 to 250 times more cost-effective



Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping

2,000 trips per hour = 75 to 250 times more cost-effective

$35,000 to $150,000 per km when road widening required = 5 to 35 times more cost-effective

Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Ontario Bikeways Planning and Design Guidelines, pg. 8-34, March 1996.



Cost of a 1.5 metre bike lane$5,000 to $10,000 per km for re-striping2,000 trips per hour

= 75 to 250 times more cost-effective

$35,000 to $150,000 per km when road widening required = 5 to 35 times more cost-effective

Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, Ontario Bikeways Planning and Design Guidelines, pg. 8-34, March 1996.

Cost of a new separated bike lane $100,000 per km

= 7 to 12 times more cost-effective


Cost of the Airport McTavish Interchange$24 million

= 2,400 km of painted bike lanesor 240 km of separated bike lanes


Carbon Taxes Feebates Road tolls

How can we pay for it?


Electronic Road Pricing


Road-pricing on the Malahat


30,000 vehicles a day$2 one-way toll = $60,000 a day

= 250 luxury coaches= up to 10,000 passengers a day


Electric Freight

Renault Radiance Dutch concept electric truck

Average 18-wheeler 6.5 mpg Super-efficient designs 9 mpg


Cargohopper3 tonnes max60 km range20 kph top speedUrban deliveriesHolland

www.cargohopper.com


Freight Solutions - Trucking

Super-efficient designs save 35% Electric plug-in to eliminate idling saves 8% Slower driving saves 8% ‘Empty miles’ shipping saves 5-15% Combined innovations could save 60%

But 60% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.


Shipping Solutions

2.5% of global oil use


Slowing from 25 to 20 knots – saves 50% Slowing from 23.5 to 20 knots - saves 25% Skysails on slow boats (10 knots) - saves 20% Ecospeed coating and underwater cleaning – saves 20% Underwater propellor polishing – saves 2% Black carbon elimination through cleaner fuel

But 50% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.


Flying Solutions

8% of global oil use

Latest designs save 20%

But a 20% increased demand would wipe out all the gains.



Future Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane


Proposed EADS VoltAir lithium-air battery aircraftSuperconducting electric motors

Paris Airshow, 2011Up to Mach 4, Paris – Tokyo in 2.5 hours


Renewable Electricity


So what’s

The Secretto make it all happen?


Community engagement


Special Price

$5


Together, we can change the world.If you’re feeling inspired, will you

join the BCSEA?

You can become a member!www.bcsea.org/join

BCSEA 2013 www.bcsea.org


This whole presentation is available on

www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey


How can we make it happen?

Questions

Discussion



D'où venons-nous? Que sommes-nous? Où allons-nous?

Where Do We Come From? What Are We?

Where Are We Going??


Voyager 1 photo of Earth from 6 billion kilometers.



The Universe has taken

13 billion years

to create us



Number of stars in the Universe

1024: 1 trillion trillion



Number of atoms in your body:

1027: 1000 trillion trillion

All self-organized into one amazing whole



Number of stars in our galaxy

100 trillion



Number of synapses in your brain

100 trillion

All self-organized into one amazing whole



100 trillion synapses 100 trillion stars



We are amazing… and we are all conscious



We have free will We can make a difference

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com It’s Our World – Let’s Change ItGuy Dauncey 2013

www.earthfuture.com



This is about us, our planet,and our future.



Guy Dauncey

www.earthfuture.com

transport without oil - a vision of the future

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