technische universität münchen - internalising external costs of transportation - effective option...
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Technische Universität München
- Internalising external costs of transportation - Effective option for climate protection or
academic exercise?
Regine Gerike
Technische Universität München, mobil.TUM
regine.gerike@mobil-tum.de
Frauenchiemsee, 13 July 2009
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
Structure of the Institute for Transportation at TU München
Department of urban structure and transport
planning Prof. Dr.-Ing.
Gebhard Wulfhorst
Chair of traffic engineering and
control Prof. Dr.-Ing. Fritz Busch
Chair and institue of road,
railway and airfield
constructionProf. Dr.-Ing. Stephan
Freudenstein
Institute for Transportation
Interdisciplinary Project Group “Mobility and Transport” Prof. Dr.-Ing. Regine Gerike, Dr. Sven Kesselring, Dr.-Ing. Andreas Rau
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
Outline
1. Definition external costs
2. From theory to practise: How to quantify external costs?
3. Some numbers
4. Conclusions
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
External Costs - Definition
• In economics, an externality or spillover of an economic transaction is • an impact • on a party that is not directly involved in the transaction.
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
External Costs - Definition
Price, Cost
Transport Quantity
Demand
MPC
MSC
x*x**
p**
p*
B
C
H
G**
G*
F
E
A
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
External Costs - Definition
x*x**
p**
p*
B
C
H
G**
D
G*
F
E
A
x*x**
p**
p*
B
C
H
G**
D
G*
F
E
A
Price, Cost
Transport Quantity
Demand
MPC
MSC
Demand
MPC
MSC
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
External Costs - Definition
x*x**
p**
p*
B
C
H
G**
D
G*
Welfare Loss
F
E
A
x*x**
p**
p*
B
C
H
G**
D
G*
F
E
A
Price, Cost
Transport Quantity
Demand
MPC
MSC
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
External Costs - Definition
The Problem: External Costs
Environmental pollutionAccidents, Noise, etc.
SocietyOther regionsFuture generations
The Solution: Polluter-Pays-Principle
True Costs / Level Playing Field
The Problem: External Costs
Environmental pollutionAccidents, Noise, etc.
SocietyOther regionsFuture generations
SocietyOther regionsFuture generations
The Solution: Polluter-Pays-Principle
True Costs / Level Playing Field
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
External Costs of Transportation - Overview
External Effects
Climate Change
Air Pollution Noise ExternalAccident Costs
Nature and Landscape
Additional Costs inUrban Areas
LandConsumption
Up- and DownstreamProcesses
External Costs
Infrastructure
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
Impact-Pathway-Approach
Source: ExternE
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
Cost Factors CO2
UBA-Methodenkonvention 2007
DC, „Best-Guess-Scenario“ Recommended: 70 €/t CO2
Sensitivity: 20 €/t CO2 and 280 €/t CO2
Stern Report 2007 DC, Stabilization CO2-concentration 450-550 ppm
85 €/t CO2
WBGU 2003 AC, Stabilization CO2-concentration below 450 ppm
2030: 50 €/t CO2 2050: 100-200 €/t CO2
UNITE, Infras/IWW 2004 AC, Kyoto (for Germany: Reduction of GHG-Emissions by 21% in 2008-2012 compared to 1990)
20 €/t CO2
Maibach 2007, Handbook AC/DC, Kyoto 7-180 €/t CO2 AC = Avoidance Costs; DC = Damage Costs
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
External Costs of Climate Change
Source: Maibach 2007
Regine GerikeSommeruniversität Zukunft der Mobilität, 13 July 2009
Cost curve = Least cost mitigation technologiesRoad transport EU27 in 2020 (lifetime payback, GHG)
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1040106010801100112011401160
Euro / t CO2
Mt CO2eq
-4% -8%By 2020:
• Reduction potential at negative costs: 4%
• Technical potential: 8% below 2020 baseline.
Dat
a: A
40 2
5/0
5/0
9
Source: Borken, 2009
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