tbli conference™ nordic 2014 - opening keynote 2 - frederic hauge - bellona foundation

From pollution to solution!

Towards a tipping point in the Arctic? 80 % of global energy production is based on fossil fuel Global energy demand is increasing 2/3 of the global population: Need to increase the standard of living Will require increasing energy demand CO2 emissions must be reduced by 50-80 % by 2050

Expedition to Scoresbysund July 2014

One of the biggest «unknowns»

How to combat global warming: The Bellona Scenario 2008

Energy efficiency, solar, wind, biomass, CCS and energy storage

is crucial to combat global warming and poverty in aCarbon Negative strategy!

”The best way to predict the future is to invent it”

Biomass and CCS

EU ROAD MAP: LOW CARBON ECONOMY 2050 -80 - 95 % reduction in GHG by 2050

27 EU Heads of State, February 2010: -80 - 95 % reduction in GHG by 2050 – compared to 1990 level: !!!!

IEA GHG/Ecofys report on Bio-CCS potentials, 2011

• Maximum technical potential in 2050: 10 Gt negative emissions in the power sector annualy; 6 Gt in the biofuels sector

• Realisable potential: 3,2 Gt annualy in 2050 (including both sectors)

Ocean Forest

FARMLAND

FOREST

RURAL AREAS

PERMAFROST

DESERT

FRESHWATER

ICE

SALTWATER

FARMLAND

POPULATION BN PEOPLE

ENERGY CONSUMPTION

EJ

ENERGY RELATED CO2

EMISSIONS Gt CO2

DEMAND FOR CEREAL

MT / YEAR

WATER SCARCITY

BN AFFECTED

ARID AREAS HA IN MILLIONS

MEGATRENDS 2010 - 2050

6.9 9.3 490 1000 30 57 2100 3000 0.7 4.1 2550 3125

TRENDS CAN BE TURNED

RETHINKING RESOURCE USE AND PRODUCTION SYSTEMS TO CREATE RESTORATIVE GROWTH

RESTORATIVE GROWTHREVEGETATION AND CREATION OF GREEN JOBS THROUGH PROFITABLE PRODUCTION OF FOOD, FRESHWATER, BIOFUELS AND ELECTRICITY

SFP GREENHOUSESALTWATER AS THE BASIS FOR CULTIVATION OF TRADITIONAL CROPS

SFP GREENHOUSE

REVEGETATION FACILITIESIMPROVING GROWING CONDITIONS IN DESERT ENVIRONMENTS

CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWERUSING REFLECTIVE SURFACES TO CONCENTRATE SUNLIGHT

SYNERGIES

SALT PONDS ALGAE AND MARICULTURE

PHOTOVOLTAICS DESALINATION

EXTENSIONS

QATAR PILOT PLANTMARCH - 2012

The Sahara Forest Project Pilot Plant in Qatar

1. Concentrated Solar Power 2. Saltwater greenhouses 3. Outdoor vegetation and evaporative

hedges 4. Photovoltaic Solar Power 5. Salt production 6. Halophytes 7. Algae production

QATAR PILOT PLANTNOVEMBER - 2012

RESULTS

Yields in pilot stage competitive with leading European greenhouse operations !Up to 15 degrees cooling in summer !Water usage is half of comparable greenhouses in the region !Year-round production of high quality crops

Seawater-cooled greenhouse

RESULTS

Evaporative hedges provided up to 10 degrees mean temperature reduction !Greenhouse and evaporative hedges provided wet-cooling efficiencies without cooling towers for the Concentrated Solar Power facility !19 desert plants and vegetable and grain crops successfully cultivated outdoors throughout the year

Hedges, CSP and outdoor vegetation

MATCHING YEARLY IMPORT TO QATAR

Cucumbers 8 hectares of greenhouse production !Tomatoes 40 hectares of greenhouse production !Cucumbers, tomatoes, peppers and aubergines!60 hectares of greenhouse production

COMMERCIAL BUSINESS CASE IN QATAR 10 hectares – 4 hectares of greenhouses

• ROI (Return on investment): GBP 19 million over ten years!• Return on Total CapEx: 8% per year !• Payback period on CapEx (excl. project mgmt and cont): 10.1 years!• Production per year: 4000 tons vegetables !

o Cucumbers used as benchmark !o Production volume represents approximately 50% of all imported cucumbers to

Qatar (Current domestic production less than 10%)!• Revenue from produce: GBP 4.7 million per year!• Based on investment of GBP 28 million from third parties

COMMERCIAL BUSINESS CASE IN QATAR 80 hectares – 40 hectares greenhouses

• ROI (Return on investment): GBP 254 million over ten years!• Return on Total CapEx: 14% per year!• Payback period on CapEx (excl. project mgmt and cont): 5.6 years!• Production per year: 40,000 tons vegetables!

o Cucumbers used as benchmark!o Volumes of produce will be divided among several vegetables !

• Revenue from produce: GBP 46.7 million per year!• Based on investment of GBP 178 million GBP from third parties

• 2012 Finalizing Feasibility studies and building extensive collaboration network

• 2012 High level seminar in Jordan

• 2013 Preparing to establish SFP on the ground in Jordan – based on pilot data analysis

• 2010 SFP presented to HM King Abdullah II of Jordan and relevant ministers

• 2011 MoU with ASEZA securing land and pipeline pathway

JORDAN 2010 - 2013

2014: AGREEMENT FOR FUNDING

• Realizing a facility to demonstrate the technology under local conditions for cost efficiency and qualitative input !

!• Meeting place and starting point for R&D with

local and international partners !• Show holistic food, water and energy

solutions to inspire stakeholders in moving forward

FAO

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations: !!“This case study (The Sahara Forest Project) illustrates how an integrated food production facility grows high-quality and diverse food productions in desert areas, minimizing energy and freshwater needs” !“The results of the nexus rapid appraisal show that this intervention performs very well in the Qatar context” !“The intervention has an outstanding performance regarding water (water is transformed into food very efficiently and the amount of freshwater used is low) and employment aspects (few people are needed to produce the energy needed and the vegetables); and water is particularly under stress in the context of Qatar”.!!

355 HA

480 HA

150 HA

75 HA

640 HA 1500 HA

500 HA

300 HA

GREENHOUSE

FODDER CULTIVATION

REVEGETATION AREAS

CSP FACILITY

ALGAE CULTIVATION

HALOPHYTE CULTIVATION

EVAPORATIVE PONDS

INFRASTRUCTURE

SCENARIO: 4 000 HA

SCENARIO: 4 000 HA

RESTORATIVE FOODS 170 000 TON

TOMATOS / YEAR

PERMANENT CO2 STORAGE

50 000 TON / YEAR

CLEAN ENERGY FOR EXPORT 300 GWH / YEAR

BIOFUEL 7.5 MIL. L / YEAR

EMPLOYMENT OF 6000 PEOPLE AND SUPPORT OF 30 000

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE MAGNITUDE OF USD 1.5 – 2 BN

Expedition to Scoresbysund July 2014

•Ice melting !•Unique and vulnerable environment!•Global distillation process !•Extraction of minerals!•Extraction of oil !•Opening of the northern sea-route!•Environmental challenges in Russia

Why should we focus on the Arctic?

Arctic

-A vulnerable environment

!Cold and clean ocean

!Hugh production of fish and

biomass !

An ecosystem in rapid change !

- Important fishing ground for EU, Norway, Russia, US and Canada

!!!

PCB-level in blood in Arctic population

Global distillation of pollutants in the Arctic

The Sahara Forest Project

Natural resources in the Arctic

• Arctic is expected to contain 25 % of the worlds unexplored oil

!• Greenland has largest share of the worlds reserve of

rare minerals !

Could this happen in the Arctic?

❑ Even the supposedly best-regulated part of European offshore industry suffers major incidents.

!❑ Risks of EU offshore

activities are increasing

www.e-commercefacts.com

Global warming will open new sea-routes in the Arctic

Environmental challenges in Russia

From pollution to solution!

The Sahara Forest Project

Thank you for your attention!