status of ne fishery resources & related science issues
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Status of NE Fishery Resources& Related Science Issues
OverviewStatus of major stocks (esp. GB & GOM)
Scientific Basis for Biomass Goals (a case of shifting baselines?)
Spatial Patterns of Effort & Distribution & effectiveness of MPAs
Ecosystem-level issues, adaptive management, and knowledge gaps
Status of NE Finfish Species Groups (1963-2003)
Year
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Aut
umn
Bio
mas
s In
dex
(kg/
tow
)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Sp
rin
g B
iom
ass
Ind
ex
(kg
/tow
- H
err
ing
& M
ack
ere
l)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Elasmobranchs Groundfish_Flounders Other FinfishHerring & Mackerel
Numerous ecosystem considerations : Predator/prey, competition
Current Year Stock Status - Status Determination
Biomass / B-MSY0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00
F /
F-M
SY
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
overfishingnot overfished
no overfishingoverfished
no overfishingnot overfished
overfishingoverfished
F-MSY
1/2 B-MSY
Groundfish Stock Status - 1996
Biomass 1996 / B-MSY0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00
F 1
99
6 /
F-M
SY
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
overfishingnot overfished
no overfishingoverfished
no overfishingnot overfished
overfishingoverfished
F-MSY
1/2 B-MSYSNE/MA YTF
Witch
GM Cod
CC/GM YTFSNE WinGB Cod
GB YTFPlaice
W Hake
N WindowPol GB Win
RedfishPout
S WindGM WinGM
HadGBHad
Groundfish Stock Status - 2002
Biomass 2002 / B-MSY0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00
F 2
00
2 /
F-M
SY
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
overfishingnot overfished
no overfishingoverfished
no overfishingnot overfished
overfishingoverfished
F-MSY
1/2 B-MSY
GM WinGB Win
N Window
Witch
CC/GM YTF
SNE/MA YTF
GB Cod
Plaice
W HakeSNE/MAWin
GB YTFPol
Redfish
Pout
SWind
GB Had
GM Had
GM Cod
Alaskan Groundfish Stock Status 2002
B2001/BMSY
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.05.0
F20
01/F
MS
Y
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
GA P-CodEBSP-Cod
GA Sable
GAPOP
AI POPEBS Pol
GA ThornyEBS YF Sole
GA Pol
EBSTurbot
EBS ArrowEBS F SoleGA Arrow
EBSO Flats
AMack EBS
R Sole
no overfishingnot overfished
overover
overfishingnot overfished
noover
FMSY
1/2 BMSY
Georges Bank Haddock
Year or Year Class1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Fis
hin
g M
ort
alit
y R
ate
(F
)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Sp
awn
ing
Bio
mas
s ('
000
mt)
, Rec
ruit
men
t (m
illio
ns)
0
50
100
150
200
FSSBrecruitment F-MSY
F40% = 0.26
B-MSY=250 kmt
Juvenile Haddock in Scallop Dredge Survey TowsSummer, 2003
Year
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Age
0 F
ish
Per
Hau
l
0
20
40
60
80
140160
Fall Trawl Survey-Haddock Recruitment Indices, 1963-2003
Georges Bank Haddock
Age 0 Number per Tow (Autumn)0.1 1 10 100
Age
1 R
ecru
itmen
t (m
illio
ns)
0.1
1
10
100
1000
2003
-0.03 -0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
1995 1999
2002
2003
off bank transport
on bank transport
mean wind stress vectors (mid-March to mid-May)1995, 1999, 2002 and 2003. (NOAA Buoy 44008)
by D. Mountain
Gulf of Maine Haddock
Year1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Fis
hin
g M
ort
alit
y R
ate
(F
)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Sto
ck B
iom
ass
('00
0 m
t)
0
5
10
15
20
FSurvey Biomass (3-yr avg.)F-MSY
Georges Bank Cod
Year or Year Class1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Fis
hin
g M
ort
alit
y R
ate
(F
)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Sp
awn
ing
Bio
mas
s ('
000
mt)
, R
ecru
itm
ent
(mil
lio
ns)
0
20
40
60
80
100FSSBrecruitment F-MSY
Fmsy=0.18
Bmsy=217 k
Gulf of Maine Cod
Year or Year Class1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Fis
hin
g M
ort
alit
y R
ate
(F)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Sp
awn
ing
Bio
mas
s ('
000
mt)
, R
ecru
itm
ent
(mil
lion
s)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Exploitation RateSSBrecruitment F-MSY
Bmsy = 83 k
Fmsy=0.23
Bmsy = 59 k
Fmsy=0.25
Southern New England Yellowtail
Year or Year Class1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Fis
hin
g M
ort
alit
y R
ate
(F
)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Sp
awn
ing
Bio
mas
s ('
000
mt)
, R
ecru
itm
ent
(mil
lion
s)
0
20
40
60
80
FSSBrecruitment F-MSY Bmsy = 45 k
Fmsy = 0.27
White Hake (>/= 60 cm)
Year1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Exp
loit
atio
n In
dex
(L
and
ing
s / S
urv
ey k
g/t
ow
)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Su
rvey
Ind
ex (
kg /
tow
, > 6
0 cm
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12Expl. Index3-year avgF-MSY ProxySurvey Index
Survey Documents Recovery of Depleted Fishery Stocks
Year
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Str
atifi
ed M
ean
Num
ber
per
Tow
0
1
2
3
Goal
Barndoor Skate – back from the dead…
Georges Bank Haddock – Defining a biomass target outside the historic baseline
2003 = 125 kmt!
Fishing Mortality Rate
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8
Ag
e at
En
try
to F
ish
ery
(Tc)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
3.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
1.0
1.0
4.0
4.0
5.0
5.0
6.0
6.0
7.0
7
.0
9. 0
9
.0
8.0
8
.0
19311995-2000
1994
19651954
1945
1947
1980
1977
GB Haddock – SSB / R using modern growth data
Spawning Stock Biomass ('000 t)
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200
Ag
e 1
Rec
ruit
s (m
illio
ns)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
1931-1963 YCs1964-2000 YCs
'62 YC
'75 YC
'00 YC
(486)'63 YC
How was the New Biomass target forGeorges Bank Haddock Computed?
Bmsy = mean recruitment when SSB > 75,000 mt = 68.9 milliontimes spawning biomass per animal at F = 0.263 = 3.63 kg= 250 thousand metric tons
Fishing Mortality Rate (F)
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4
Sp
awn
ing
Bio
ma
ss p
er
An
imal
(lif
eti
me,
kg
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
Sea Scallop Landings by Stock Area
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Land
ings
(MT
of m
eat)
Georges BankMid-AtlanticTOTAL
Proportion from Closed Areas
1999 --27%2000 --16%2001 --18%2002 --3%
Can this be Done in Reality?
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Sca
llop
Den
sity
(kg
/to
w, m
eats
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Overall DensityClosed AreasOpen Areas
Atlantic Sea Scallop
1994
Density (number per tow)
-5 0 5 10 15
Sh
ell
He
igh
t (m
m)
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
ClosedOpen
2001
Density (number per tow)
Sh
ell
He
igh
t (m
m)
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
OpenClosed
Georges Bank Scallop Recruitment
Year
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Ag
e 2
Rec
ruit
s p
er S
urv
ey T
ow
0
100
200
300
400
500
Median Recruitment = 100 per Tow
X Data
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
bers
& M
eat
Wei
ght
(gra
ms)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Average meat weight (g)Numbers at Age (M=0.1)
Age (years)
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
bers
X M
eat W
eigh
t
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Biomass Curve
X Data
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Num
bers
& M
eat
Wei
ght
(gra
ms)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Average meat weight (g)Numbers at Age (M=0.1)Numbers at Age (Ages 2+ F=0.9)
Age (years)
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Nu
mb
ers
X M
eat W
eigh
t
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Biomass M=0.1Biomass Z=1.0
ScallopFishermenGB Survey
SessileSuccess!
Three Main Biological Effects of MPAs
“Reserve Effects” = higher density in closed areas, demographic shifts, reproductive output increased, potentially resulting in:
“Spill Over” = net movement out of adults (apart from ontogenetic or other non-density related movements)
A Really Big Question: Is there a “Fatal Attraction” of fishing effort to reserve boundaries, seeking spillover?
“ Export” = net export of larvae or juveniles to open areas
Fisheries benefit from permanently closed areas via Spillover, Export, or overall reductions in fishing rate
Spatial Management & MPAs• New England fishery closed areas: a 9 year + casestudy in temperate waters (5 pseudo-replicates)
• Previous work (2000) demonstrated “reserve effects” especially for sea scallop and other benthics
• Seasonal movements and depth distributions of manytarget species means that cross-boundary excursions are frequent
• Are the MPAs providing benefits to conservationof groundfish resources, & the fishery, and what can we learn about movement & dispersion? approaches:
• Differential densities (in/out)• Potential for “spillover”
“Rolling Closures”
In addition toYear-roundclosures
May
June
May
March
AprilOct-Nov.
Are habitat gradientsconfounding theinterpretation?
2003 Revised
2003VMS PositionsFor speed </= 3.5 knMos. 1-12
Multispecies(groundfish)
Trawlers
pixel is1’ lat by1’ long
movie…
2003
VMS Positions
For speed
> 3.5 kn
Mos. 1-10
-73 -72 -71 -70 -69 -68 -67 -6640
41
42
43
44
45
012345
DF_GP
-73 -72 -71 -70 -69 -68 -67 -6640
41
42
43
44
45
40
41
42
43
44
45-73 -72 -71 -70 -69 -68 -67 -66
1991-1993
Trawler Effort Patterns
10’ squaresw/1/4 degreeProration of somedata
Requirements for “Spillover”
• Pressure Head (differential densities in/out)
• High Velocity at “Spillway” (velocity and volume dissipate w/distance)
• Test for Spillover is 2-part:
•First, is there a densitydifferential (in/out)? then:
•Density vs. distance from edge
“Footprint Analyses”
Closed Area I
Ratio In:Out
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 30
monkfish cod
winter flwitch
yellowtailplaice
haddockpollockdogfishsculpin
little skatewinter skatewindowpane
herringtotal weight
total number
2001-2003
Autumn
Spring
Closed Area II
Ratio In:Out
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 14
monkfishcod
winter fl witch
yellowtailplaice
haddockpollocksculpin
little skatewinter skatewindowpane
herringlobster
total weighttotal number
2001-2003
Autumn
Spring
Haddock, Closed Area I, Fall
Year
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Mea
n W
eigh
t per
Tow
(ln
kg
+ 1
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
Inside
Outside
Haddock, Closed Area I
year
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Rat
io o
f cat
ches
Insi
de/O
utsi
de (
ln k
g/to
w +
1)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1620
24
28
Area closed
“Proximity Analyses”
R/V Data too sparse for tests of “spill over”
Fortunately, fishermen have been conducting this experiment for us
adjust commercial trawler catches for effort species targeting, etc. & Calibrate
Sea Sampling in New England increased in recent years because of court order (7,000+ tows in 2003)
Effects of Closures on Groundfishes
Otter Trawl fleet
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Monkfish CPUE
Closed Area I
0 100 200 300 400
1000
2000
3000
4000
Closed Area II
0 100 200 300 400
1000
2000
3000
4000
NantucketLight Ship
0 100 200 300 400
1000
2000
3000
4000
W. Gulf of Maine
0 100 200 300 400
1000
2000
3000
4000
Haddock CPUE (kg/hr) - positive tows
Distance from Closed Area (km)
Haddock kg/haul
0 lbs.0.1-500 lbs.501-1000 lbs1001-3000 lbs.3001-7500 lbs
0 10 20 30 40 50
distance (km)
-202468
10
ln T
ota
l cpue
-202468
10
ln H
addock
cpue
0 10 20 30 40 50
-202468
10
200
400
600
800
1000hours
fis
hed
Effort and Catch Rates Near Closed Area I 2001-2002
Haddock - CPUE vs. Distance to CA-I
Kilometers from Closed Area I0.01 0.1 1 10
Had
do
ck k
g p
er h
aul
0.1
1
10
100
1000
cod - CPUE vs. Distance to CA-I
Kilometers from Closed Area I0.01 0.1 1 10
kg
pe
r h
ou
r
0.1
1
10
100
1000
Joint CDFs of Catch & Effort by Distance from CA-I
CDF Total Hours Fished
0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35
CD
F o
f C
atch
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Haddock Total Catch
1 km
2
15
3
-1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0Slope
0
10
20
30
Fre
qu
en
cy
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Pro
po
rtion
pe
r Ba
r
ln (CPUE(i)) = a + b * ln (X(i)) + ε(i)
51 species/Area CombinationsTested
13 sig.
5 sig. neg.Slope
Haddock CA-IYT, Win CA-IIYT NLSWitch WGOM
N=51
0-50 km
Nu
mb
er p
er 1
0 m
^2
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16MONTH
1.0
10.0
100.0
1000.0
Spawning-Related Movements?
Nearest20 km
MetBuoyLocations
EnvironmentallyDrivenMovements?
January, 2003Buoy 44018
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 160
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
02468101214160
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Hourly Speed &Direction
Buoy 44018 - 2003
Month
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Deg
rees
C
0
5
10
15
20
25
airH20
Monthly - Median Direction - Mean Speed
conclusions so far……• Closed areas integral to species recoveries in some
areas• Reserve effects demonstrated on the “sessile spectrum”• Unequivocal evidence of fishing effects• Displaced effort important for some species – there
may be a “fatal attraction”• Spillover is a complicated issue in gradients• Visualization Project is our next Step (account for various movement patterns, density-driven
dispersion, spawning, random, environmentally forced)• Export is an ongoing challenge (GLOBEC?)
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Haddock DistributionsGLOBEC
Some Ecosystem Issues of Interest…
• indirect effects of harvesting:- trophic cascades and feedbacks to & from lower trophic levels
- effects of fishing on bottom habitats
• Consequences of environmental variability- trend and amplitude
- harvesting strategies to increase resiliency?
• adaptive management in stock rebuilding scenarios- density dependence in vital rates?
- is there enough primary production?
Feedback
HabitatEffects
Environmental Variation(trend, variance)
Fishery Effects
Resource Species(intermediate consumer)
Apex Predator
Intermediate PelagicTrophic Level
Lower PelagicTrophic Levels
Ecosystem Processes Relevant toAquatic Resource Management
Density Dependence
Benthostrophic cascade
yield
yield
trophic cascade
sinkprey
prey
prey
sink
fishing gearimpacts
yield
yield
Regime Shiftso environmentally driveno fishery driven ?
Flow
Indirect Effects
?
prey
Atlantic Herring - Atlantic Mackerel - Zooplankton
Year
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Spr
ing
Sur
vey
Bio
mas
s In
dex
(kg/
tow
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Zoo
plan
kton
Vol
ume
(cc/
100
m3)
10
20
30
40
50
Herring Mackerel Zooplankton
Monitoring Lower Trophic levels and prey Stocks
Georges Bank Haddock Growth & Density
Year
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Mea
n W
eigh
t (kg
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Spaw
ning
Sto
ck B
iom
ass
(met
ric to
ns, '
000s
)
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
Age 2Age 3Age 4Age 5SSB
Georges Bank Haddock
Stock Biomass ('000 tons)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Mea
n W
eigh
t at A
ge (k
g)
0
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
6
Are Stationarity Assumptions of SSB/R Valid?
Georges Bank Yellowtail Flounder
Stock Biomass ('000 tons)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Mea
n W
eigh
t at
Age
(kg
)
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
2
3
4
5
6
Yellowtail Flounder - Growth & Density
Year
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Mea
n W
eigh
t (kg
)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Stoc
k Bi
omas
s (m
etric
tons
, 000
's)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Age 2Age 3Age 4Age 5Age 6Biomass
Changes in Populations Due to Fishing and Environment
Georges Bank Cod Growth & Density
Year
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Mea
n W
eig
ht
(kg
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Su
rvey
Ab
un
dan
ce (
kg/t
ow
, sm
oo
thed
)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Age 1Age 2Age 3Age 4Biomass Index
Georges Bank - Autumn
Groundfish Complex minus Species (kg/tow)
1 10 100
Sp
ecie
s A
bu
nd
ance
(kg
/to
w)
0.1
1
10
100 yellowtail fl.
cod
haddock
winter fl.
windowpane
Can these BiomassTargets be achievedFor all stocksSimultaneously?
Each Stock Plottedvs. sum of all others
38 Year TimeSeries of TrawlSurveys
"The picture's pretty bleak, gentlemen ... the world's climates are changing, the mammals are taking over,and we all have a brain about the size of a walnut."
We Need an Adaptive Approach!
Proposal for Periodic Re-Consideration of BiomassReference Points for Rebuilding Stocks
• Monitor the pace of rebuilding relative to stock production• Examine population Dynamics parameters for signs of density dependence or species interaction, especially:
• length/weight at age• condition factor (weight per length)• maturity at age• stomach contents• relative abundance• recruitment• spawning biomass• environmental conditions• geographic distributions
Revise if density dependence or interactions dictate!
Current State of the Artin NE Habitat typing
What HabitatsAre trawledthe most?
(GIS Problem)
USGSCompilation
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Aut
umn
Bot
tom
Ano
mal
y EC
-3-2-10123
Gulf of MaineGeorges Bank
Spr
ing
Bot
tom
Ano
mal
y EC
-2-1012
trends in environmental conditions?
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