smart people, dumb decisions*
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Smarter benefits. Better health.
Smart People, Dumb Decisions*
*Remind You of Someone You Know?
Smart People, Dumb Decisions* (Remind you of someone you know?)
Charlotte Area Society for Human Resource ManagementAugust 11, 2014
Smarter benefits. Better health.
Smart People, Dumb Decisions*
*Remind You of Someone You Know?
Smarter benefits. Better health.
Smart People, Dumb Decisions*
*Remind You of Someone You Know?
Smarter benefits. Better health.4
Smarter benefits. Better health.5
Smarter benefits. Better health.
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Decision Support
Tools
Case-Based Decision Analysis
Qualitative Scenario Analysis
Quantitative Multiple Scenario
Tools
Conventional Capital
Budgeting Tools
“The models we’ve developed for choosing
decision support tools is dependent on managers being able to accurately determine the level of
ambiguity and uncertainty they face.”
Smarter benefits. Better health.
Pea + Pear + Pope = Better Decisions in Work and Life
Smarter benefits. Better health.
PastEmotionAutomatic
Smarter benefits. Better health.
$31.7111/01/2011
$15.8704/28/2013
-51%
16 months
Smarter benefits. Better health.
Smarter benefits. Better health.
$16.9707/07/2006
$2.6009/29/2012
5 years 16 months
$0.56Today
-85%
Smarter benefits. Better health.
Smarter benefits. Better health.
PastEmotionAutomaticReflection
Smarter benefits. Better health.17
99.4%; Prefrontal Cortex; 30 inputs; 7 Focal Points; Pattern Recognition; Emotional Tagging
Automatic System; 80%; “Gut”; Reflective System; 20%; Rational; Dopamine Neurons; Habit 17
Smarter benefits. Better health.
PastEmotionAutomaticReflection
Smarter benefits. Better health.
Smarter benefits. Better health.
Promoter of the Faith
1587-1983
(aka The Devil’s Advocate)
Smarter benefits. Better health.
83 Years(1900-1983)
Canonizations
9817 Years
(1983-2000)
499
Smarter benefits. Better health.
Misleading Experiences-Uncertainties?-Relevant experience?-Misleading experience?
Misleading Prejudgments-Uncertainties?-Prejudged the uncertainties?-Prejudgments supported by evidence?
Reflection: Guarding Against Prejudgment
Source: Think Again; Sydney Finkelstein, Jo Whitehead and Andrew Campbell; Harvard Business Press 2008
Smarter benefits. Better health.
Inappropriate Self-Interest-Potential for Gain/Loss?-Contrary to shareholder interests?-Possibly distort the decision?
Inappropriate Attachments-Impact on peripheral people or interests?
Reflection: Guarding Against Self-Interest
Source: Think Again; Sydney Finkelstein, Jo Whitehead and Andrew Campbell; Harvard Business Press 2008
Smarter benefits. Better health.
Self-Interest
Prejudgment
Caution
Danger Caution
Optimization
Likely
Unlikely
Unlikely Source: Rex H. Gale, Smart People, Dumb Decisions 2013; Based Think Again; Sydney Finkelstein, Jo Whitehead and Andrew Campbell; Harvard Business Press 2008
Reflection: Organizational Decision Diagnostic
Smarter benefits. Better health.
CorporateGovernance
ContrarianAnalysis
ContrarianDebate
Consequence
Analysis
Continual Re-
Assessment
Reflection: Organizational Decision DiagnosticCorporate Governance
Who’s Your Chief Devil’s Advocate Officer?
Source: Rex H. Gale, Smart People, Dumb Decisions 2013
Smarter benefits. Better health.
1. Express contrarian points of view in group meetings
2. When things are going wrong, you say so immediately
3. Consciously acknowledge when your past experiences may be influencing your decision
4. Consciously acknowledge when your emotions may be influencing your decision
5. Consciously acknowledge when your personal interests may be influencing your decisions
6. Seriously consider some else’s point of view when it differs from your own
7. Re-examine your most deeply-held beliefs
Never Sometimes Often Always
Personal Reflection Decision Diagnostic
Smarter benefits. Better health.
Smarter benefits. Better health.
Reflection: Organizational and Individual Decision Diagnostics
Smarter benefits. Better health.
Rex Gale, SPHR, HCS@rexgale#reflection
#pearbrain #peapearpope#spdd
Rex.gale@bcbssc.comRex.gale@gmail.com
Smarter benefits. Better health.
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