smart people, dumb decisions*

Smarter benefits. Better health.

Smart People, Dumb Decisions*

*Remind You of Someone You Know?

Smart People, Dumb Decisions* (Remind you of someone you know?)

Charlotte Area Society for Human Resource ManagementAugust 11, 2014


Smart People, Dumb Decisions*

*Remind You of Someone You Know?

Smarter benefits. Better health.4


Decision Support

Tools

Case-Based Decision Analysis

Qualitative Scenario Analysis

Quantitative Multiple Scenario

Tools

Conventional Capital

Budgeting Tools

“The models we’ve developed for choosing

decision support tools is dependent on managers being able to accurately determine the level of

ambiguity and uncertainty they face.”


Pea + Pear + Pope = Better Decisions in Work and Life

http://flickr.com/photos/7452305@N05/432115237/


PastEmotionAutomatic


$31.7111/01/2011

$15.8704/28/2013

-51%

16 months


$16.9707/07/2006

$2.6009/29/2012

5 years 16 months

$0.56Today

-85%


PastEmotionAutomaticReflection



99.4%; Prefrontal Cortex; 30 inputs; 7 Focal Points; Pattern Recognition; Emotional Tagging

Automatic System; 80%; “Gut”; Reflective System; 20%; Rational; Dopamine Neurons; Habit 17


PastEmotionAutomaticReflection



Promoter of the Faith

1587-1983

(aka The Devil’s Advocate)


83 Years(1900-1983)

Canonizations

9817 Years

(1983-2000)

499


Misleading Experiences-Uncertainties?-Relevant experience?-Misleading experience?

Misleading Prejudgments-Uncertainties?-Prejudged the uncertainties?-Prejudgments supported by evidence?

Reflection: Guarding Against Prejudgment

Source: Think Again; Sydney Finkelstein, Jo Whitehead and Andrew Campbell; Harvard Business Press 2008


Inappropriate Self-Interest-Potential for Gain/Loss?-Contrary to shareholder interests?-Possibly distort the decision?

Inappropriate Attachments-Impact on peripheral people or interests?

Reflection: Guarding Against Self-Interest

Source: Think Again; Sydney Finkelstein, Jo Whitehead and Andrew Campbell; Harvard Business Press 2008


Self-Interest

Prejudgment

Caution

Danger Caution

Optimization

Likely

Unlikely

Unlikely Source: Rex H. Gale, Smart People, Dumb Decisions 2013; Based Think Again; Sydney Finkelstein, Jo Whitehead and Andrew Campbell; Harvard Business Press 2008

Reflection: Organizational Decision Diagnostic


CorporateGovernance

ContrarianAnalysis

ContrarianDebate

Consequence

Analysis

Continual Re-

Assessment

Reflection: Organizational Decision DiagnosticCorporate Governance

Who’s Your Chief Devil’s Advocate Officer?

Source: Rex H. Gale, Smart People, Dumb Decisions 2013


1. Express contrarian points of view in group meetings

2. When things are going wrong, you say so immediately

3. Consciously acknowledge when your past experiences may be influencing your decision

4. Consciously acknowledge when your emotions may be influencing your decision

5. Consciously acknowledge when your personal interests may be influencing your decisions

6. Seriously consider some else’s point of view when it differs from your own

7. Re-examine your most deeply-held beliefs

Never Sometimes Often Always

Personal Reflection Decision Diagnostic


Reflection: Organizational and Individual Decision Diagnostics



Rex Gale, SPHR, HCS@rexgale#reflection

#pearbrain #peapearpope#spdd

[email protected]@gmail.com

mailto:[email protected]

smart people, dumb decisions*

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