simulating the impact of climate change and adaptation strategies on farm productivity and income: a...
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Please check the latest version of this presentation on:
http://www.agrodep.org/first-annual-workshop ww
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Simulating the Impact of Climate
Change and Adaptation
Strategies on Farm
Productivity and Income:
A Bioeconomic Analysis
Presented by:
Ismael FofanaInternational Food Policy
Research Institute - Dakar
AGRODEP Workshop on Analytical Tools for Climate Change
Analysis
June 6-7, 2011 • Dakar, Senegal
Simulating the Impact of Climate Change andof Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies on Farm Productivity
and Income: A Bioeconomic Analysis
Ismaël Fofana
International Food Policy Research Institute
West and Central AfricaWest and Central Africa
Dakar, Senegal
1 Issue and objective1. Issue and objective
2. Methodology- Biophysical Model- Economic Model- Climate Scenarios- Climate Scenarios
3. Results
1. Issue and objective
O r climate is changing more and more• Our climate is changing; more and more evidences on rising temperature, sea-levels, frequency and severity of droughts and floodsfrequency and severity of droughts and floods, …
A i lt l t i hi hl li t iti• Agricultural sector is highly climate sensitive
• Climate defines production areas for crops
• Climate’s effect on yield is important
1. Issue and objective (cont.)
Objective
• Better understand the impact of climate change on farmers and agricultural productiong p
• Help to properly anticipate and adapt farming toHelp to properly anticipate and adapt farming to optimize food production
• Analysis at the farm level is a crucial step before moving into a large and general analysismoving into a large and general analysis
2. Methodology (cont.)
S i h iScenarios on changes in temperature, precipitation, & CO2
6 Future Climate
S i
Gross Profit Margin
FarmEcon. Model
(Linear optimization)Biophysical
Model
Scenarios
(CropSyst)
Crop yieldsInputs use
Fixed Prices
Inputs use
Price taking assumption
CropSyst or Cropping Systems Simulation ModelLOCATION WEATHER Storms Evapotranspiration Freezing climates WindCROP
MANAGEMENT
CROP Classification Planting Growth Morphology MANAGEMENT
Harvest Irrigation Clipping Nitrogen
Morphology Phenology Vernalization Photoperiod Harvest g
Conservation Tillage
Residue Nitrogen Salinity CO2 DormancySOIL Leaching Runoff RUSLE RUSLE Volatilization Texture Hydraulics
CropSyst (cont.)
Crop growth
CropSyst (cont.)Soil texture
CropSyst (cont.)
Evapotranspiration model
CropSyst (cont.)IrrigationIrrigation
CropSyst (cont.)
Hard wheat(RL 39% + IL 16%)
SIMULATION CONTROLE
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
Fodder barley SIMULATION CONTROLE
RotationSoil profileResidue
Soft wheat(RL 4%)
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
barley(RL 2%)
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
ResidueNitrogenRunoffCO2
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
Fava beans(RL 2%) Validation
Oat hay(IL 8%)Chi k
(RL 2%)[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
(IL 8%)[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
Chickpeas(RL 1%)
[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]
CropSyst (cont.)
Sim lation controleSimulation controle
CropSyst (cont.)
Crop and management rotation tableCrop and management rotation table
CropSyst (cont.)
Atmospheric CO2Atmospheric CO2
CropSyst (cont.)Runtime graphic displayu t e g ap c d sp ay
Atmospheric conditions graph• Average daily temperature• Actual evapotranspiration• Actual evapotranspiration• Potential evapotranspiration• Precipitation• Runoff
Atmospheric conditions graph• Plant height
Growth stage graph Runoff
• Actual transpiration• Potential transpiration
• Plant height• Biomass• Leaf area index• Green area index
graph
Green area index• Total stress• Nitrogen stress• Light stressg• Water stress• Temperature stress
Pl t Pl t A il bl
Harvest Totals
Display Plant Available
Water graph
Plant Available Nitrogen graph
[ammonium & nitrate]
Display
ValidationReal yield Simulated yield
Calibration results for irrigated hard 25
3035404550
on/ha)
gwheat
0510152025
0 1 2 3 4 5
Yield (t
0 1 2 3 4 5
Years
Real yield Simulated yield
Calibration results 40
50
60
/ha)
Real yield Simulated yield
for rainfed hard wheat
0
10
20
30
Yield (ton
/
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Year
No modeling of:
• Tree cropsW d• Weeds
• Diseases• Pests• Pests• Grassland• Livestock• Livestock• Physical damage (soil)• Plant characteristicsPlant characteristics• Intercropping system• Food qualityq y
I i l
Crop Development Models (incomplete list)
DSSATDecision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer
InternationalConsortium forAgricultural SystemsApplications
http://www.icasa.net/dssat
Applications
APSIMAgricultural Production Systems Simulator
The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
http://www.apsim.infoSystems Simulator Industrial Research
Organizationfo
CropSyst Cropping Systems Simulation Model
Washington State University
http://www.bsye.wsu edu/cropsystSimulation Model University wsu.edu/cropsyst
EPICErosion Productivity Impact Calculator
United States Department of Agriculture
http://epicapex.brc.tamus.edu
Agriculture
Aquacrop crop water productivity model FAOhttp://wwww.fao.org
Wageningen http://www wofostWOFOST WOrld FOod STudies
Wageningen University
http://www.wofost.wur.nl
Economic Model
ObjectiveObjective
, ,max c m c mL c m
T , , , , , , ,c m c m j c j c m i c ij iy p q p
with
Constraints
,c m j i
Soil occupation: ,S
c mc m
T T
Rotation: , ,cc mi cf miS S min5 max5years yearsc ccS S S and
Water: ,s
c t tcW W
Animal food: Surface allocated to barley fodder compensated for the change in supplies of animal food (stubbles)
Assumptions (cont.)
• Rational decision making with gross margins the only variable influencing surface allocation
• Fixed products and factor prices (price taker)
• No constraint on the farm’s access to other productive factors e g labor and capitalproductive factors, e.g. labor and capital
• Water supply mostly comes from surface waterWater supply mostly comes from surface water and its availability is proportionally affected by the change in rainfallg
Climate Change Scenarios
CO2concentration
Change in daily
precipitation
Change in daily temperature
+1°C +2°C +3°Cprecipitation C C 3 C
-10% Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 5700 ppm
-20% Scenario 2 Scenario 4 Scenario 6
2. Methodology (cont.)
A ti h iAssumption on changes in temperature, precipitation, & CO2
6 Future Climate
S i
Gross Profit Margin
FarmEcon. Model
(Linear optimization)Biophysical
Model
Scenarios
(CropSyst)
Crop yieldsInputs use
Fixed Prices
Inputs use
Price taking Assumption
2. Methodology
Global/RegionalCirculation Models
GHG Emissions
Future Climate
Scenarios
Future Climate
Scenarios
5
Micro-Behavioral
Biophysical Model
ModelCrop yieldsInputs use
GHG emissionsPrices
Multi-SectoralPartial/General Crop yields
Inputs useP i
2
4
EquilibriumModel
Inputs useGHG emissions
Prices
3. ResultsProductivity effects (%)
Productivity loss:15 to 20% in the near-term; 35 to 55% in the long runto 55% in the long run
Income effects (%)
Income loss: 5 to 20% in the near-term; 45 to 70% in the long run
3. Results (cont.)
Yield of rainfed hard wheat (%) Yield of irrigated hard wheat (%)Yield of rainfed hard wheat (%) Yield of irrigated hard wheat (%)
• Irrigated crops less affected than rainfed crops (with 10 percentage points of productivity gap)
• Precipitation induced productivity gap lessens as• Precipitation-induced productivity gap lessens as the climate warms up
3. Results (cont.)Yield of irrigated oat hay (%) Yield of irrigated hard wheat (%)g y ( ) g ( )
Yield of rainfed fava beans (%) Yield of rained fodder barley (%)
3. Results (cont.)Hard wheat yield (tons/ha)Hard wheat yield (tons/ha)
CompensationCompensation for the negative effects of li t hclimate change
through irrigation is
Percentage variation of hard wheat yield (%) worthwhile only for a 1°C increase inincrease in temperature
Summary1 Yield loss: 1oC 15 20% ; 2oC to 3oC 35 55%1. Yield loss: 1oC 15-20% ; 2oC to 3oC 35-55%
2 Rev loss: 1oC 5-20% ; 2oC to 3oC 45-70%2. Rev. loss: 1 C 5 20% ; 2 C to 3 C 45 70%
3. Irrigated crops less affected than rainfed cropsg p p
4. Precipitation-induced productivity gap lessen as p p y g pthe climate warms up
5. Some crops less affected than others
6 I i ti d t ti t t i th hil6. Irrigation, as an adaptation strategy, is worthwhile only for a 1°C increase in temperature
Thank you for your attention
More information at
www.ifpri.org
www.agrodep.orgg p g
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