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Simulating the Impact of Climate

Change and Adaptation

Strategies on Farm

Productivity and Income:

A Bioeconomic Analysis

Presented by:

Ismael FofanaInternational Food Policy

Research Institute - Dakar

AGRODEP Workshop on Analytical Tools for Climate Change

Analysis

June 6-7, 2011 • Dakar, Senegal

Simulating the Impact of Climate Change andof Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies on Farm Productivity

and Income: A Bioeconomic Analysis

Ismaël Fofana

International Food Policy Research Institute

West and Central AfricaWest and Central Africa

Dakar, Senegal

1 Issue and objective1. Issue and objective

2. Methodology- Biophysical Model- Economic Model- Climate Scenarios- Climate Scenarios

3. Results

1. Issue and objective

O r climate is changing more and more• Our climate is changing; more and more evidences on rising temperature, sea-levels, frequency and severity of droughts and floodsfrequency and severity of droughts and floods, …

A i lt l t i hi hl li t iti• Agricultural sector is highly climate sensitive

• Climate defines production areas for crops

• Climate’s effect on yield is important

1. Issue and objective (cont.)

Objective

• Better understand the impact of climate change on farmers and agricultural productiong p

• Help to properly anticipate and adapt farming toHelp to properly anticipate and adapt farming to optimize food production

• Analysis at the farm level is a crucial step before moving into a large and general analysismoving into a large and general analysis

2. Methodology (cont.)

S i h iScenarios on changes in temperature, precipitation, & CO2

6 Future Climate

S i

Gross Profit Margin

FarmEcon. Model

(Linear optimization)Biophysical

Model

Scenarios

(CropSyst)

Crop yieldsInputs use

Fixed Prices

Inputs use

Price taking assumption

CropSyst or Cropping Systems Simulation ModelLOCATION WEATHER Storms Evapotranspiration Freezing climates WindCROP

MANAGEMENT

CROP Classification Planting Growth Morphology MANAGEMENT

Harvest Irrigation Clipping Nitrogen

Morphology Phenology Vernalization Photoperiod Harvest g

Conservation Tillage

Residue Nitrogen Salinity CO2 DormancySOIL Leaching Runoff RUSLE RUSLE Volatilization Texture Hydraulics

CropSyst (cont.)

Crop growth

CropSyst (cont.)Soil texture

CropSyst (cont.)

Evapotranspiration model

CropSyst (cont.)IrrigationIrrigation

CropSyst (cont.)

Hard wheat(RL 39% + IL 16%)

SIMULATION CONTROLE

[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]

Fodder barley SIMULATION CONTROLE

RotationSoil profileResidue

Soft wheat(RL 4%)

[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]

barley(RL 2%)

[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]

ResidueNitrogenRunoffCO2

[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]

Fava beans(RL 2%) Validation

Oat hay(IL 8%)Chi k

(RL 2%)[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]

(IL 8%)[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]

Chickpeas(RL 1%)

[Crop+Location+Soil+Manage]

CropSyst (cont.)

Sim lation controleSimulation controle

CropSyst (cont.)

Crop and management rotation tableCrop and management rotation table

CropSyst (cont.)

Atmospheric CO2Atmospheric CO2

CropSyst (cont.)Runtime graphic displayu t e g ap c d sp ay

Atmospheric conditions graph• Average daily temperature• Actual evapotranspiration• Actual evapotranspiration• Potential evapotranspiration• Precipitation• Runoff

Atmospheric conditions graph• Plant height

Growth stage graph Runoff

• Actual transpiration• Potential transpiration

• Plant height• Biomass• Leaf area index• Green area index

graph

Green area index• Total stress• Nitrogen stress• Light stressg• Water stress• Temperature stress

Pl t Pl t A il bl

Harvest Totals

Display Plant Available 

Water graph

Plant Available Nitrogen graph

[ammonium & nitrate]

Display

ValidationReal yield Simulated yield

Calibration results for irrigated hard 25

3035404550

on/ha)

gwheat

0510152025

0 1 2 3 4 5

Yield (t

0 1 2 3 4 5

Years

Real yield Simulated yield

Calibration results 40

50

60

/ha)

Real yield Simulated yield

for rainfed hard wheat

0

10

20

30

Yield (ton

/

0

0 1 2 3 4 5

Year

No modeling of:

• Tree cropsW d• Weeds

• Diseases• Pests• Pests• Grassland• Livestock• Livestock• Physical damage (soil)• Plant characteristicsPlant characteristics• Intercropping system• Food qualityq y

I i l

Crop Development Models (incomplete list)

DSSATDecision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer

InternationalConsortium forAgricultural SystemsApplications

http://www.icasa.net/dssat

Applications

APSIMAgricultural Production Systems Simulator

The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research

http://www.apsim.infoSystems Simulator Industrial Research

Organizationfo

CropSyst Cropping Systems Simulation Model

Washington State University

http://www.bsye.wsu edu/cropsystSimulation Model University wsu.edu/cropsyst

EPICErosion Productivity Impact Calculator

United States Department of Agriculture

http://epicapex.brc.tamus.edu

Agriculture

Aquacrop crop water productivity model FAOhttp://wwww.fao.org

Wageningen http://www wofostWOFOST WOrld FOod STudies

Wageningen University

http://www.wofost.wur.nl

Economic Model

ObjectiveObjective

, ,max c m c mL c m

T , , , , , , ,c m c m j c j c m i c ij iy p q p

with

Constraints

,c m j i

Soil occupation: ,S

c mc m

T T

Rotation: , ,cc mi cf miS S min5 max5years yearsc ccS S S and

Water: ,s

c t tcW W

Animal food: Surface allocated to barley fodder compensated for the change in supplies of animal food (stubbles)

Assumptions (cont.)

• Rational decision making with gross margins the only variable influencing surface allocation

• Fixed products and factor prices (price taker)

• No constraint on the farm’s access to other productive factors e g labor and capitalproductive factors, e.g. labor and capital

• Water supply mostly comes from surface waterWater supply mostly comes from surface water and its availability is proportionally affected by the change in rainfallg

Climate Change Scenarios

CO2concentration

Change in daily

precipitation

Change in daily temperature

+1°C +2°C +3°Cprecipitation C C 3 C

-10% Scenario 1 Scenario 3 Scenario 5700 ppm

-20% Scenario 2 Scenario 4 Scenario 6

2. Methodology (cont.)

A ti h iAssumption on changes in temperature, precipitation, & CO2

6 Future Climate

S i

Gross Profit Margin

FarmEcon. Model

(Linear optimization)Biophysical

Model

Scenarios

(CropSyst)

Crop yieldsInputs use

Fixed Prices

Inputs use

Price taking Assumption

2. Methodology

Global/RegionalCirculation Models

GHG Emissions

Future Climate

Scenarios

Future Climate

Scenarios

5

Micro-Behavioral

Biophysical Model

ModelCrop yieldsInputs use

GHG emissionsPrices

Multi-SectoralPartial/General Crop yields

Inputs useP i

2

4

EquilibriumModel

Inputs useGHG emissions

Prices

3. ResultsProductivity effects (%)

Productivity loss:15 to 20% in the near-term; 35 to 55% in the long runto 55% in the long run

Income effects (%)

Income loss: 5 to 20% in the near-term; 45 to 70% in the long run

3. Results (cont.)

Yield of rainfed hard wheat (%) Yield of irrigated hard wheat (%)Yield of rainfed hard wheat (%) Yield of irrigated hard wheat (%)

• Irrigated crops less affected than rainfed crops (with 10 percentage points of productivity gap)

• Precipitation induced productivity gap lessens as• Precipitation-induced productivity gap lessens as the climate warms up

3. Results (cont.)Yield of irrigated oat hay (%) Yield of irrigated hard wheat (%)g y ( ) g ( )

Yield of rainfed fava beans (%) Yield of rained fodder barley (%)

3. Results (cont.)Hard wheat yield (tons/ha)Hard wheat yield (tons/ha)

CompensationCompensation for the negative effects of li t hclimate change

through irrigation is

Percentage variation of hard wheat yield (%) worthwhile only for a 1°C increase inincrease in temperature

Summary1 Yield loss: 1oC 15 20% ; 2oC to 3oC 35 55%1. Yield loss: 1oC 15-20% ; 2oC to 3oC 35-55%

2 Rev loss: 1oC 5-20% ; 2oC to 3oC 45-70%2. Rev. loss: 1 C 5 20% ; 2 C to 3 C 45 70%

3. Irrigated crops less affected than rainfed cropsg p p

4. Precipitation-induced productivity gap lessen as p p y g pthe climate warms up

5. Some crops less affected than others

6 I i ti d t ti t t i th hil6. Irrigation, as an adaptation strategy, is worthwhile only for a 1°C increase in temperature

Thank you for your attention

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