sa’s crime profile & crime hub n ovember 2011 camprosa conference: sinfonia johan b urger

• Perceptions of credibility (police crime stats)

• Some business indicators of crime trends

• Policing operations & arrests

• SA’s crime profile:

o Overall national trends

o Curious provincial trends

• Worrying new trend (kidnapping)

• Concluding remarks

Presentation Outline

SAPS and the crime stats …

Credibility of police crime statistics ?

International Business Report: Victim survey in South Africa (2007 – 2011)

%

Retail Crimes (Armed Robberies & Burglaries): 2009 & 2010

2009 2010 % decrease

Armed Robberies(Incidents)

282 159 - 43,6%

Burglaries(Incidents)

426 311 - 27%

Armed Robberies(Financial loss)

R19,36m R10,03m - 48%

Burglary(Financial loss)

R19,97m R10,07 - 49%

Consumer Goods Risk Initiative (CGRI)

House robbery Business robbery

Vehicle hijacking

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Vehicle theft

Business burglary

House burglary

4 – 21% (average decr)

19 – 28% (average decr)

19 – 31% (average decr)

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8 – 17% (average decr)

5 – 9% (average decr)

4 – 12% (average decr)

South African Insurance Association (SAIA)(Claims for 2010/11 compared to 2010/09)

SAPS: 20 most serious crimes recorded1994/95 – 2010/11

Murder & attempted murder trend1994/95 – 2010/11 (rates per 100 000)

Relationships & motives relating to Relationships & motives relating to murdermurder

Perpetrators known to victims

Perpetrators as relatives, friends, etc

Relatives as perpetrators

80% 60% 20%

Relationships

Motives/ConditionsSocial behaviour(E.g. domestic conflict such as arguments, jealousy, alcohol & drug abuse, etc)

Criminalbehaviour (E.g. resulting from other crime such as robbery, etc)

Group behaviour(E.g. gang & taxi violence, vigilantism, etc)

Other(E.g. retaliation, self-defence, police actions, etc)

65% 16% 7% 12%

Att murder - 60% Rape - 75% Assault - 90%

Aggravated robbery trend1994/95 – 2010/11 (rates per 100 000)

Trio crimes2002/03 – 2010/11

Bank & Cash-In-Transit robberiesIncidents from 1996/97 – 2010/11

ATM attacks/bombings2004/05 – 2010/11

Scene at an ATM bombing

Residential & non-residential burglary(Rates per 100 000)

Commercial crime & shoplifting

Car Hijackings

House Robberies

Business Robberies2003/04 – 2009/10

Att Murder

Murder

1994/95 – 2009/10

1994/95 – 2009/10

2003/04 – 2010/11

Police numbers

Comparing the trends

2003/04 – 2010/11

Police budget (SA Rand in billions)

(+49,2%)

(+131,7%)

Police numbers

2003/04 – 2010/11

Car Hijackings

Att Murder

Murder

Assault GBH

Assault Common

1994/95 – 2010/11

1994/95 – 2010/11

2003/04 -2010/11

(+44%)

Actions 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 % inc

Roadblocks 35 003 42 601 52 233 65 381 25%

Cordon & search 23 590 20 490 38 129 61 216 60%

Stop & search 842 580 1 006 186 1 542 031 2 063 923 33%

Vehicle patrols 1 065 196 1 354 304 1 775 170 3 851 034 117%

Persons searched 9 794 533 11 667 505 15 232 422 19 754 241 29%

Vehicles searched 3 542 802 4 121 994 2 666 181 7 712 536 189%

Arrests 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 %

Contact crimes 173 838 217 047 242 902 283 002 16%

Aggravated robbery 24 952 22 051 20 934 25 077 20%

Property & other serious crime

- 176 346 210 548 208 041 - 1%

Crimes dep. on police action 90 891 102 906 130 257 149 138 14%

Policing operations & arrests

Crime type Detection rate (%)

% cases court ready

Conviction rate (%)

Contact crimes (crimes against the person)

56,99% 32,24% (new baseline)

23,78%

Property-related crimes 15,84% 31,06% (new baseline)

24,50%

Crimes dependent on police action 98,53% 28,41% (new baseline)

37,13%

Murder 26,57% 28,95% (new baseline)

13,55%

Aggravated robbery 14,77% 34,82% (new baseline)

11,40%

House robbery 18,99% - 3,59%

Business robbery 18,83% - 12,69%

Detection & conviction rates (selected crimes)

Average national & provincial crime ratios

Overall crime ratios (29 crimes) Crimes detected by police action (3 crimes)

• Illegal possession of firearms• Drug related crimes• Driving under the influence

National & provincial ratios: murder2003/04 – 2010/11

National & provincial ratios: attempted murder 2003/04 – 2010/11

26%

House robbery Business robbery

National and provincial trends (Actual figures)

National & Prov crimes: Kidnapping‘The unlawful intentional deprivation of a person of his freedom of movement or, if such a person is a child, the unlawful intentional deprivation of a parent of control over the child’ (Cf ‘abduction’)

The Crime and Justice Hub(Institute for Security Studies)

• The Home Page of the Hub• Part of the front page – some broad categories of topics covered• For the maps, we advise to use Mozilla Firefox or Google Chrome

search engines, but possible with Explorer 9 (just a bit more patience required!)

The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.)(Institute for Security Studies)

This map shows the 2009/2010 commercial crime statistics per police precinct irrespective of population figures in a police station area

The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.)(Institute for Security Studies)

The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.)(Institute for Security Studies)

This map shows the 2009/2010 commercial crime statistics per police precinct per capita

For Sandton, there is an increase in commercial crime as per the graph generated on the hub

The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.)(Institute for Security Studies)

THANK YOU / DANKIEJOHAN BURGERTel 012 346 9500

jburger@issafrica.orgwww.issafrica.org