sa’s crime profile & crime hub n ovember 2011 camprosa conference: sinfonia johan b urger

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SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember 2011 CAMPROSA Conference: Sinfonia Johan B urger C rime & Justice P rogramme INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES. Presentation Outline. Perceptions of credibility (police crime stats) Some business indicators of crime trends - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger
Page 2: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

• Perceptions of credibility (police crime stats)

• Some business indicators of crime trends

• Policing operations & arrests

• SA’s crime profile:

o Overall national trends

o Curious provincial trends

• Worrying new trend (kidnapping)

• Concluding remarks

Presentation Outline

Page 3: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

SAPS and the crime stats …

Page 4: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

Credibility of police crime statistics ?

Page 5: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

International Business Report: Victim survey in South Africa (2007 – 2011)

%

Page 6: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

Retail Crimes (Armed Robberies & Burglaries): 2009 & 2010

2009 2010 % decrease

Armed Robberies(Incidents)

282 159 - 43,6%

Burglaries(Incidents)

426 311 - 27%

Armed Robberies(Financial loss)

R19,36m R10,03m - 48%

Burglary(Financial loss)

R19,97m R10,07 - 49%

Consumer Goods Risk Initiative (CGRI)

Page 7: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

House robbery Business robbery

Vehicle hijacking

--------------------------------------

Vehicle theft

Business burglary

House burglary

4 – 21% (average decr)

19 – 28% (average decr)

19 – 31% (average decr)

--------------------------------------

8 – 17% (average decr)

5 – 9% (average decr)

4 – 12% (average decr)

South African Insurance Association (SAIA)(Claims for 2010/11 compared to 2010/09)

Page 8: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

SAPS: 20 most serious crimes recorded1994/95 – 2010/11

Page 9: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

Murder & attempted murder trend1994/95 – 2010/11 (rates per 100 000)

Page 10: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

Relationships & motives relating to Relationships & motives relating to murdermurder

Perpetrators known to victims

Perpetrators as relatives, friends, etc

Relatives as perpetrators

80% 60% 20%

Relationships

Motives/ConditionsSocial behaviour(E.g. domestic conflict such as arguments, jealousy, alcohol & drug abuse, etc)

Criminalbehaviour (E.g. resulting from other crime such as robbery, etc)

Group behaviour(E.g. gang & taxi violence, vigilantism, etc)

Other(E.g. retaliation, self-defence, police actions, etc)

65% 16% 7% 12%

Att murder - 60% Rape - 75% Assault - 90%

Page 11: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

Aggravated robbery trend1994/95 – 2010/11 (rates per 100 000)

Page 12: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

Trio crimes2002/03 – 2010/11

Page 13: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

Bank & Cash-In-Transit robberiesIncidents from 1996/97 – 2010/11

Page 14: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

ATM attacks/bombings2004/05 – 2010/11

Page 15: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

Scene at an ATM bombing

Page 16: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

Residential & non-residential burglary(Rates per 100 000)

Page 17: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

Commercial crime & shoplifting

Page 18: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

Car Hijackings

House Robberies

Business Robberies2003/04 – 2009/10

Att Murder

Murder

1994/95 – 2009/10

1994/95 – 2009/10

2003/04 – 2010/11

Police numbers

Comparing the trends

2003/04 – 2010/11

Police budget (SA Rand in billions)

(+49,2%)

(+131,7%)

Police numbers

2003/04 – 2010/11

Car Hijackings

Att Murder

Murder

Assault GBH

Assault Common

1994/95 – 2010/11

1994/95 – 2010/11

2003/04 -2010/11

(+44%)

Page 19: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

Actions 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 % inc

Roadblocks 35 003 42 601 52 233 65 381 25%

Cordon & search 23 590 20 490 38 129 61 216 60%

Stop & search 842 580 1 006 186 1 542 031 2 063 923 33%

Vehicle patrols 1 065 196 1 354 304 1 775 170 3 851 034 117%

Persons searched 9 794 533 11 667 505 15 232 422 19 754 241 29%

Vehicles searched 3 542 802 4 121 994 2 666 181 7 712 536 189%

Arrests 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 %

Contact crimes 173 838 217 047 242 902 283 002 16%

Aggravated robbery 24 952 22 051 20 934 25 077 20%

Property & other serious crime

- 176 346 210 548 208 041 - 1%

Crimes dep. on police action 90 891 102 906 130 257 149 138 14%

Policing operations & arrests

Page 20: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

Crime type Detection rate (%)

% cases court ready

Conviction rate (%)

Contact crimes (crimes against the person)

56,99% 32,24% (new baseline)

23,78%

Property-related crimes 15,84% 31,06% (new baseline)

24,50%

Crimes dependent on police action 98,53% 28,41% (new baseline)

37,13%

Murder 26,57% 28,95% (new baseline)

13,55%

Aggravated robbery 14,77% 34,82% (new baseline)

11,40%

House robbery 18,99% - 3,59%

Business robbery 18,83% - 12,69%

Detection & conviction rates (selected crimes)

Page 21: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

Average national & provincial crime ratios

Overall crime ratios (29 crimes) Crimes detected by police action (3 crimes)

• Illegal possession of firearms• Drug related crimes• Driving under the influence

Page 22: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

National & provincial ratios: murder2003/04 – 2010/11

Page 23: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

National & provincial ratios: attempted murder 2003/04 – 2010/11

26%

Page 24: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

House robbery Business robbery

National and provincial trends (Actual figures)

Page 25: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

National & Prov crimes: Kidnapping‘The unlawful intentional deprivation of a person of his freedom of movement or, if such a person is a child, the unlawful intentional deprivation of a parent of control over the child’ (Cf ‘abduction’)

Page 26: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

The Crime and Justice Hub(Institute for Security Studies)

• The Home Page of the Hub• Part of the front page – some broad categories of topics covered• For the maps, we advise to use Mozilla Firefox or Google Chrome

search engines, but possible with Explorer 9 (just a bit more patience required!)

Page 27: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.)(Institute for Security Studies)

Page 28: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

This map shows the 2009/2010 commercial crime statistics per police precinct irrespective of population figures in a police station area

The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.)(Institute for Security Studies)

Page 29: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.)(Institute for Security Studies)

This map shows the 2009/2010 commercial crime statistics per police precinct per capita

Page 30: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

For Sandton, there is an increase in commercial crime as per the graph generated on the hub

The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.)(Institute for Security Studies)

Page 31: SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember  2011 CAMPROSA  Conference:  Sinfonia Johan  B urger

THANK YOU / DANKIEJOHAN BURGERTel 012 346 9500

[email protected]