sa’s crime profile & crime hub n ovember 2011 camprosa conference: sinfonia johan b urger
DESCRIPTION
SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember 2011 CAMPROSA Conference: Sinfonia Johan B urger C rime & Justice P rogramme INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES. Presentation Outline. Perceptions of credibility (police crime stats) Some business indicators of crime trends - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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• Perceptions of credibility (police crime stats)
• Some business indicators of crime trends
• Policing operations & arrests
• SA’s crime profile:
o Overall national trends
o Curious provincial trends
• Worrying new trend (kidnapping)
• Concluding remarks
Presentation Outline
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SAPS and the crime stats …
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Credibility of police crime statistics ?
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International Business Report: Victim survey in South Africa (2007 – 2011)
%
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Retail Crimes (Armed Robberies & Burglaries): 2009 & 2010
2009 2010 % decrease
Armed Robberies(Incidents)
282 159 - 43,6%
Burglaries(Incidents)
426 311 - 27%
Armed Robberies(Financial loss)
R19,36m R10,03m - 48%
Burglary(Financial loss)
R19,97m R10,07 - 49%
Consumer Goods Risk Initiative (CGRI)
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House robbery Business robbery
Vehicle hijacking
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Vehicle theft
Business burglary
House burglary
4 – 21% (average decr)
19 – 28% (average decr)
19 – 31% (average decr)
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8 – 17% (average decr)
5 – 9% (average decr)
4 – 12% (average decr)
South African Insurance Association (SAIA)(Claims for 2010/11 compared to 2010/09)
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SAPS: 20 most serious crimes recorded1994/95 – 2010/11
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Murder & attempted murder trend1994/95 – 2010/11 (rates per 100 000)
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Relationships & motives relating to Relationships & motives relating to murdermurder
Perpetrators known to victims
Perpetrators as relatives, friends, etc
Relatives as perpetrators
80% 60% 20%
Relationships
Motives/ConditionsSocial behaviour(E.g. domestic conflict such as arguments, jealousy, alcohol & drug abuse, etc)
Criminalbehaviour (E.g. resulting from other crime such as robbery, etc)
Group behaviour(E.g. gang & taxi violence, vigilantism, etc)
Other(E.g. retaliation, self-defence, police actions, etc)
65% 16% 7% 12%
Att murder - 60% Rape - 75% Assault - 90%
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Aggravated robbery trend1994/95 – 2010/11 (rates per 100 000)
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Trio crimes2002/03 – 2010/11
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Bank & Cash-In-Transit robberiesIncidents from 1996/97 – 2010/11
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ATM attacks/bombings2004/05 – 2010/11
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Scene at an ATM bombing
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Residential & non-residential burglary(Rates per 100 000)
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Commercial crime & shoplifting
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Car Hijackings
House Robberies
Business Robberies2003/04 – 2009/10
Att Murder
Murder
1994/95 – 2009/10
1994/95 – 2009/10
2003/04 – 2010/11
Police numbers
Comparing the trends
2003/04 – 2010/11
Police budget (SA Rand in billions)
(+49,2%)
(+131,7%)
Police numbers
2003/04 – 2010/11
Car Hijackings
Att Murder
Murder
Assault GBH
Assault Common
1994/95 – 2010/11
1994/95 – 2010/11
2003/04 -2010/11
(+44%)
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Actions 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 % inc
Roadblocks 35 003 42 601 52 233 65 381 25%
Cordon & search 23 590 20 490 38 129 61 216 60%
Stop & search 842 580 1 006 186 1 542 031 2 063 923 33%
Vehicle patrols 1 065 196 1 354 304 1 775 170 3 851 034 117%
Persons searched 9 794 533 11 667 505 15 232 422 19 754 241 29%
Vehicles searched 3 542 802 4 121 994 2 666 181 7 712 536 189%
Arrests 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 %
Contact crimes 173 838 217 047 242 902 283 002 16%
Aggravated robbery 24 952 22 051 20 934 25 077 20%
Property & other serious crime
- 176 346 210 548 208 041 - 1%
Crimes dep. on police action 90 891 102 906 130 257 149 138 14%
Policing operations & arrests
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Crime type Detection rate (%)
% cases court ready
Conviction rate (%)
Contact crimes (crimes against the person)
56,99% 32,24% (new baseline)
23,78%
Property-related crimes 15,84% 31,06% (new baseline)
24,50%
Crimes dependent on police action 98,53% 28,41% (new baseline)
37,13%
Murder 26,57% 28,95% (new baseline)
13,55%
Aggravated robbery 14,77% 34,82% (new baseline)
11,40%
House robbery 18,99% - 3,59%
Business robbery 18,83% - 12,69%
Detection & conviction rates (selected crimes)
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Average national & provincial crime ratios
Overall crime ratios (29 crimes) Crimes detected by police action (3 crimes)
• Illegal possession of firearms• Drug related crimes• Driving under the influence
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National & provincial ratios: murder2003/04 – 2010/11
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National & provincial ratios: attempted murder 2003/04 – 2010/11
26%
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House robbery Business robbery
National and provincial trends (Actual figures)
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National & Prov crimes: Kidnapping‘The unlawful intentional deprivation of a person of his freedom of movement or, if such a person is a child, the unlawful intentional deprivation of a parent of control over the child’ (Cf ‘abduction’)
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The Crime and Justice Hub(Institute for Security Studies)
• The Home Page of the Hub• Part of the front page – some broad categories of topics covered• For the maps, we advise to use Mozilla Firefox or Google Chrome
search engines, but possible with Explorer 9 (just a bit more patience required!)
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The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.)(Institute for Security Studies)
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This map shows the 2009/2010 commercial crime statistics per police precinct irrespective of population figures in a police station area
The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.)(Institute for Security Studies)
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The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.)(Institute for Security Studies)
This map shows the 2009/2010 commercial crime statistics per police precinct per capita
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For Sandton, there is an increase in commercial crime as per the graph generated on the hub
The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.)(Institute for Security Studies)