rise and fall of texas stem education€¦ · 07-03-2018 · rise and fall of texas stem...

RiseandFallofTexasSTEMEducation:March2018 1

RISEANDFALLOFTEXASSTEMEDUCATIONCOLLEGEREADINESSANDCOURSE-TAKINGSINCEHOUSEBILL5OF2013

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

MichaelMarder,ExecutiveDirectorofUTeachandProfessorintheDepartmentofPhysics

TheUniversityofTexasatAustinMarch2018

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

HouseBill5of2013wasthemostimportanteducationbillinTexasofthelastdecade.Itgreatlyreducedhigh-stakestestinginTexashighschoolsandchangedhighschoolgraduationrequirementstoaccommodatestudentswhointendtobypassafour-yearcollegedegreeandgodirectlyintotheworkforce,withorwithoutformalpost-secondarytraining.

ThefirstclasswhosewholehighschoolcareerwassetbyHB5istheclassof2018.Theyhavenotyetgraduated. However,manyprovisionsofthebillkickedinassoonasthefallof2013.Weknowthecoursesthatstudentshavebeentakingastheygothroughhighschool,andweknowhowtheyhavedoneontestsalongtheway,sothepictureofhowTexaseducationlooksafterHB5iscomingintofocus.

ProponentsofHB5arguedatthetimethatthestate’snewworkforce-centricdiplomaswerenotbetterorworsethanthepreviousones—justdifferent.Hereareresultssofar,focusingonSTEM—someofwhicharegood,butmostofwhicharebad,neutral,ormixed.

• Good.Highschoolgraduationrateshavecontinuedtoincrease,slowlyandsteadily,andremainamongthebestinthenation,overallandbysubgroup.

• Bad.Thereisarapidandalarmingdropinpost-secondaryopportunitiesforTexasstudentsoverall.Thedropaffectsallgroups,butisparticularlysevereforstudentsinschoolsofconcentratedpoverty,andforBlackandHispanicstudents.

• Neutral.ThoughAlgebraIIbecameoptional,therateatwhichstudentstakethatcoursehasnotdroppedmuch,becausethealternativesforitarelessattractive.PhysicsandChemistryalsobecomeoptional,andtherateatwhichstudentstakethemhasnotdroppedmuch,either.

• Mixed.ThepercentageofstudentstakingComputerScience,Statistics,andRoboticsisgrowingexponentially.However,forComputerScienceandStatistics,thesegainsareoverwhelminglyconcentratedinschoolsoflowpoverty.

Thus,whilecontinuingtodriveupthepercentageofstudentswhoobtainahighschooldiploma,Texasisallowingthevalueofthediplomatodegrade.ThefreedomHB5gavestudentstopursuetheirinterestsisalmostexclusivelybenefitingstudentsinlow-povertyschools.Studentsfacedecreasedpost-secondaryopportunitiesoverall,andthedecreaseismostsevereforBlack,Hispanic,andlow-incomestudents.

RISEANDFALLOFTEXASSTEMEDUCATIONCOLLEGEREADINESSANDCOURSE-TAKINGSINCEHOUSEBILL5OF2013

MichaelMarder,ExecutiveDirectorofUTeachandProfessorintheDepartmentofPhysics

TheUniversityofTexasatAustinMarch2018

BACKGROUND

Fromthelate1990suntil2010,Texasimplementededucationalpoliciesthatworkedovermanyyearstoincreasestudentsuccessinmeasuresofcollegeandcareerreadinesswhileatthesametimeimprovinggraduationrates.

In2011,substantialbudgetcutsreducedfundingtothepublicschoolsand,inparticular,reducedexpenditureonprogramsdesignedtohelpstudentsstrugglingacademically.In2013,thestatepassedHB5,whichchangedrequirementsfortestingandgraduation.Mandatoryexamsthatstudentshadusedtodemonstratecollegereadinessallbecameoptional.AlgebraII,Physics,andChemistrycoursesalsomovedfrombeingrequiredinthedefaultgraduationplantobeingoptional.(SeeTable1.)

SomemotivationsforHB5weretoreducethepressureofthehigh-stakestestingsystemonstudents,teachers,andschools,andtoprovidestudentswithfreedomtopursuesubjectsthatinterestedthemratherthanmakingmoststudentsfollowarigidcurriculumwithrelativelyfewelectives.

Itisdifficulttoarguewiththeseintentions.However,thereformsoftheprevioustwodecadesalsohadbeenmotivatedbygoodintentions,whichweretousethepressureofthetestingandaccountabilitysystemtoimposesteadilyrisingstandardsonapubliceducationsystemwithapoorrecordofservinglow-income,Hispanic,andBlackstudents.Overthecourseofmorethanadecade,thispressurehadproducedpositiveresults,althoughsignificantgapsineducationandopportunitybetweeneconomic,racial,andethnicgroupsneverwentaway.Thus,itisimportanttomonitortheconsequencesofchangesintestingandgraduationrequirementstoseewhethergapscontinuetodiminishorgrowandwhetheropportunityincreasesordecreases.

POST-SECONDARYOPPORTUNITY

Post-secondaryopportunityrosefrom2006until2013andthenplummetedforTexashighschoolgraduatesin2016.ThisistheresultofadropintheofficialCollegeReadinessCertificationrate,showninFigure1,whichbreaksdowntheresultsbyschoolswithdifferentlevelsofpovertyconcentration.

CollegeReadinessCertificationisthenameforaparticularcollegereadinessmeasurethattheTexasEducationAgencypreparesforeveryTexashighschoolgraduateaspartoftheTexasSuccessInitiative(TSI).Forstudentswhoenteredhighschoolpriorto2011,therewereseveralwaystobecertifiedCollegeReady.TheycouldgetscoresaboveacutoffonthemandatoryTAKSexamstheirjunioryear.Theycouldgetabove1110ontheSATor24ontheACT.Ortheycouldcompleteacollegecourseorreceivehonorabledischargefrommilitaryservice.Farandawaythemostlikelywaytogetthecertificationwasthroughscoresonthemandatorystatetests.

ThestorybehindtherisingrateofCollegeReadinessCertificationfrom2006until2014inFigure1isthatmoreandmorestudentssuccessfullymetabenchmarkontheexit-levelTAKS.WhenTexastransitionedfromTAKStoSTAARin2011,theexamsdesignedtotakeoverthecollegecertificationtaskwereAlgebraIIandEnglishIII.

UnderHB5,AlgebraIIandEnglishIIIbecameoptionalfordistrictstooffer,theydisappearedfromtheannualtestingcalendar,andonlyatrickleofresultsfromthemhavebeenreportedsince2012–2013.SchoolswereencouragedtohavestudentstaketheTexasSuccessInitiativeAssessment(TSIA)whilestillinhighschool.However,studentswerenotrequiredtotakeit,andthisisthemainreasonthatCollegeReadinessCertificationratesplummeted.

Table1:Graduationplansovertime.

Year Graduationplanfor enteringfreshmen

Graduationplanrecommended forhighschoolgraduates

Mandatoryhighschooltestsfor

freshmen

Mandatoryhighschooltestsfor

graduates

2006-2007

Recommended:4English, 3math,3science, 3.5socialstudies

4English,3math,3science, 3.5socialstudies TAKS TAKS

2007-2008

Recommended:4x4 4English,3math,3science, 3.5socialstudies

TAKS TAKS

2008-2009 Recommended:4x4 4English,3math,3science,

3.5socialstudies TAKS TAKS

2009-2010 Recommended:4x4 4English,3math,3science,

3.5socialstudies TAKS TAKS

2010-2011 Recommended:4x4 4x4 TAKS TAKS

2011-2012 Recommended:4x4 4x4 STAAR(15tests) TAKS

2012-2013 Recommended:4x4 4x4 STAAR(15tests) TAKS

2013-2014

Transition:Foundation+Endorsement,

4x4allavailable4x4 STAAR(5tests) TAKS

2014-2015 Foundation+Endorsement 4x4 STAAR(5tests)

STAAR(15tests,droppedto5junior

2015-2016 Foundation+Endorsement

Studentsenteredunder4x4,buthadavailableFoundation+Endorsement

orDistinguishedSTAAR(5tests)

STAAR(15tests,droppedto5

sophomoreyear)

2016-2017

Foundation+Endorsement Studentschosebetween4x4orFoundation+Endorsementonentry

STAAR(5tests) STAAR(5tests)

2017-2018 Foundation+Endorsement

FirstcohortonlychoosingbetweenFoundation+Endorsement

orDistinguishedSTAAR(5tests) STAAR(5tests)

Source:TexasEducationAgency.Stategraduationrequirements.Availableathttp://tea.texas.gov/graduation.aspx.

Figure1:CollegeReadinessCertificationofgraduatingTexashighschoolseniorsfrom2007to2016, disaggregatedbyschoolpovertyconcentration.Source:TexasEducationAgency,AEIS,andTAPR.

Forgraduatesfromthequarterofschoolswiththelowestconcentrationoflow-incomestudents,CollegeReadinessCertificationfellfromapeakof71%to55%in2015–2016.Forgraduatesfromthequarterofschoolswherepovertyismosthighlyconcentrated,CollegeReadinessCertificationdroppedfromthepeakof42%to13%in2015–2016. Figure2showsCollegeReadinessCertificationforvariousracial,ethnic,andeconomicgroups.ThedropinCollegeReadinessCertificationwasmostsevereforBlackstudents,forwhomitfellfromapeakof42%to17%in2015–2016.ItwasleastsevereforWhitestudents,forwhomitfellfromapeakof71%to55%in2015–2016.

Figure2:CollegeReadinessCertificationofgraduatingTexashighschoolseniorsfrom2007to2016,

disaggregatedbyracial,ethnic,andeconomicgroups.Source:TexasEducationAgency,AEIS,andTAPR.

ThisdropinCollegeReadinessCertificationwillhaveseriousconsequencesforstudents.Itisnotjustanarbitraryopinionaboutwhichstudentsarereadyforcollege.Itisactuallyahiddencollegeadmissionsrequirement.Itishiddenbecausetechnicallyitisnotanadmissionsrequirementatall.Collegesareforbiddenfromusingitaspartoftheadmissionsprocess.Highschoolgraduatescanenrollinanycommunitycollege,andmanyfour-yearcollegesareopentoallhighschoolgraduatesaswell.However,althoughstudentsareadmitted,theycanbebarredfromcourseworkthatleadstoa

Texas College Readiness, schools of different poverty concentration

Poverty GroupRichest quarter of schoolsNext-to-richest quarter of schools

Next-to-poorest quarter of schoolsPoorest quarter of schools

Texas College Readiness for Selected Groups

GroupsAverage College Readiness of White StudentsAverage College ReadinessAverage College Readiness of Hispanic StudentsAverage College Readiness of Economically Disadvantaged StudentsAverage College Readiness of Black Students

long-termcertificateordegreeuntiltheyareCollegeReadyCertifiedinmathematics,reading,andwriting.Thestudentsareadmitted,buttheyarerequiredtospendtimeandmoneyoncourseworkatthehighschoollevelthatwillnotcounttowardtheirdegreeuntiltheyareofficiallyreadyforfreshman-levelcourses.

Theseverityofthishiddenentrancerequirementissoftenedbythefactthatcollegesareunderordertohelpstudentsovercomeit,butevenso,theoddsaredaunting.IfastudentcomesoutofhighschoolwithoutbeingCollegeReady,thenuponwalkingintoacommunitycollege,heissupposedtotaketheTexasSuccessInitiativeAssessment(TSIA).Mathematicsposesthehighestbarrier.Thechancesofpassingthemathematicsportionofthisassessmentarearound20%.Studentswhodonotpassthemathematicsorreadingexamsmustenrollindevelopmentaleducationcourses.Ofthosewhoenrollindevelopmentaleducation,lessthanhalfcompletethecourseworksuccessfully,and,ofthose,onlyhalfcompletetheirfirstcollege-levelmathematicscourse.Thenetresultisthatonly15%ofstudentswhoentercollegewithoutbeingCollegeReadyinmathematicsgetthroughamathematicsrequirementfortheirdegreewithintwoyears.EvenbeforethelatestdropinCollegeReadinessCertification,morethan60%ofstudentsattwo-yearcollegeswereenrollingwithoutbeingCollegeReady.1

AstherisingwaveofstudentsleavinghighschoolbeingCollegeReadyenterstwo-yearcollegesoverthenextseveralyears,theywillberequiredtotaketheTSIA,andthereisnoreasontothinkthatthefractionwhopasstheexamorsucceedindevelopmentaleducationcourseswillriseincomparisontothepast.Thefractionofstudentsobtainingpost-secondarydegreesandlong-termcertificatesisverylikelytodecline.Thisdevelopmentisparticularlyunwelcomeinlightofanambitiousplanlaunchedin2015“whosemajorgoalisthat60percentofyoungTexanswillholdacertificateordegreeby2030.”2 Thebaselineyearwas2015,when41percentofyoungTexansheldacertificateordegree.IncreasingthispercentagewasacknowledgedtobedifficultatatimewhenCollegeReadinessCertificationhadbeenrisingforadecade.Reachingthegoalsof60x30whileitisdroppingisdifficulttoimagine.

DespitethefactthatacentraleducationalgoalofTexasisslippingoutofreach,thereisnosignofactiontoremedytheproblem.ThisisexplainedbyofficialresponsestothedropinCollegeReadinessCertificationrates.

HB5includedarequirementthatitsoutcomesbemonitored.TheTexasEducationAgency,TexasWorkforceCommission,andTexasHigherEducationCoordinatingBoardwererequiredtomonitor“highschoolgraduationrates,collegereadiness,collegeadmissions,collegecompletion,obtainmentofworkforcecertificates,employmentrates,andearnings.”3 ThistaskwasassignedtoAmericanInstitutesforResearch,whoproducedaninterimreportinthefallof20154 andafinalreportinDecember2017.

TheAIRinterimreportdoesanexcellentjobofsummarizingthehistoryofTexasaccountabilityandtestingrequirements.ItshowshowimportantindicatorssuchasCollegeReadinessCertificationandgraduationrateshavevariedovertime.Itincludesresultsofacomprehensivesurveyofdistricts,providingavaluablerecordofdistrictactionsinresponsetoHB5upthrough2015.

TheAIRreportauthorsobserveinfootnote15that,“AlthoughtheSTAARAlgebraIIandEnglishIIIassessmentsarescheduledtobeadministeredagainin2015–2016,theyareoptionalfordistricts.”However,AlgebraIIandEnglishIIIdid

1 TexasHigherEducationCoordinatingBoard.(2017).2017Texaspublichighereducationalmanac(report).Austin:Author.Availableat:http://www.thecb.state.tx.us/reports/PDF/9435.PDF?CFID=64117197&CFTOKEN=93556140.2 TexasHigherEducationCoordinatingBoard.(2017).2017Texaspublichighereducationalmanac(webpage).Availableat:http://www.thecb.state.tx.us/index.cfm?objectid=DDEEF064-B397-9EBA-773779AAC15507B4.3 TexasEducationAgency.Programevaluation:Researchreports.Availableat:http://tea.texas.gov/Reports_and_Data/Program_Evaluations/Research_Reports/Program_Evaluation___Research_Reports.4 AmericanInstitutesforResearch.(2015).HouseBill5evaluation.Austin:Author.Availableat:http://tea.texas.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&ItemID=25769823287&libID=25769823385

notappearontheSTAARtestingcalendarafter2012–2013,andnoresultsfromthesetestsappearedafterthatyearinstatedatareleasesuntil2015–2016,whenasmallfractionofthestate’sstudentswerereportedtobetakingitagain.

Thefinalstate-supportedAIRreportwasissuedinDecember2017.FromtheExecutiveSummaryofthatreport5:

Becauseofthesignificantchangesintestingrequirementsforthe2011–12cohort,theirmeasuredTSI[TexasSuccessInitiative]readinessratescannotbedirectlycomparedtoratesofearliercohortsforthepurposeofdescribingtrendsintruecollegereadiness.The2011–12incomingGrade9cohortwasthefirstcohortwheretheoptiontomeetTSIreadinessstandardsbyachievingatorabovetheHERCscoreonanexit-levelTAKSwaseliminatedwhentheSTAARreplacedTAKSasthestate’sstandardizedstudentassessment.

Inthebodyofthereport,thereistheacknowledgment:“WhileitisbeyondthescopeofthisreporttodeterminethedirecteffectsofchangesintestingrequirementsonTSIreadinessrates,stakeholdersarestillmetwithtangibleandsignificantimpactsassociatedwiththeseobservedrates.”

AlthoughtheconsequencesofCollegeReadinessCertificationforstudentsandforthestateareveryreal,themainproblemismoretechnicalthansubstantive.Whathighschoolgraduatesactuallyknowandcandoalmostcertainlydidnotchangemuchbetween2014–2015and2015–2016.Whathaschangediswhattheyprovedthattheyknowandcando.Thus,despitethenegativeconsequencesforstudentsindividuallyandforthestateingeneral,thereisnosenseofurgencytofixtheproblem.Thisseemstobebecauseofthesentimentthat“true”collegereadinesshasnotchanged.Unfortunately,“true”collegereadinesswillnotgetstudentsthroughcollege,fortheofficialstatemeasuresofCollegeReadinessCertificationwillpreventthemfromtakingcredit-bearingcourses.

COURSE-TAKINGINSTEM

Collegereadinesscanbemeasuredinmanyways.TheofficialmeasureIjustdiscussedisone,butthisiscertainlynotthebestwaytodecideifschoolsandteachershavepreparedstudentsforcollege.Ithaschangedgreatlyovertime,anditalsoneednotcorrespondwelltowhetherstudentswhogotocollegeactuallysucceed.Anotherwaytolookatcollegereadinessisthroughthecoursesthatstudentstake.Thistypeofcollegereadinessalsohasadministrativeconsequencesforstudents.Itisconnectedtocollegeadmission.OnlystudentswhograduateontheDistinguishedPlanareeligibleforautomaticcollegeadmissionunderthetop10%rule,andtheDistinguishedPlanrequirespassingAlgebraII,Chemistry,andPhysics.Mostfour-yearcollegeseitherrequirethesecoursesforadmissionorstronglyencouragethem

IexaminedSTEMcourse-takingpatternstoseeiftheyhavebeenchanging.STEMcoursesarenotoriouslychallengingforstudents,andtheypresentchallengesforschoolsaswell.Physicsteachersregularlyleadthelistofthehardestteacherstohire,withChemistryandmathematicsnotfarbehind.Thedecades-longpushtoincreasecollegereadinessinTexasthatpeakedin2013–2104includedapushtostaffPhysics,Chemistry,andadvancedmathematicscoursesinhighschool.IncontrastwiththecollapseinCollegeReadinessCertificationthatinprinciplecouldbecuredwiththeadministrationofnewtests,adeclineintheabilitytoteachSTEMsubjectswouldmeanamuchmoresubstantiallossinstudentaccomplishmentandschoolinfrastructure.YetsuchadeclinecanbeexpectedbecauseHB5madeAlgebraII,Physics,andChemistryoptional.6

5 AmericanInstitutesforResearch.(2017).HouseBill5evaluation:Finalreport.Austin:Author.Availableat:https://tea.texas.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&ItemID=51539618631&libID=51539618631.6 ThecaseofAlgebraIIiscomplicatedbecausestudentsmuststillchooseamathematicscoursefromalistonwhichAlgebraIIisarguablytheeasiestandmostfamiliar.ThisresultedfromadeliberateeffortbehindthescenestosteerstudentstowardAlgebraII.TherewasnosimilareffortdirectedtowardPhysicsandChemistry;studentscansatisfytheirphysicalsciencerequirementwithanIntegratedPhysics/ChemistryclassthatisatalowerlevelthaneitherPhysicsorChemistry.

DefinitiveinformationabouttheconsequencesofHB5forcourse-takingwillnotexistuntiltheclassthatenteredhighschoolinthefallof2014graduatesinthespringof2018,andthosedatawillnotbecomeavailableuntil2019.Still,studentshaveadvancedfarenoughinhighschoolwiththeprovisionsofHB5ineffectthatpreliminarystatementsaboutcourse-takingarepossible.

Overall,thenewshereispromising.TherehasnotbeenasharpdropinthenumbersofstudentstakingSTEMcourses.Iprovidetwoseparateviewsofthesituation:longitudinalbycohortandsnapshotbyyear.

LONGITUDINALCOURSE-TAKING

Figure3summarizesSTEMcourse-takingforTexashighschoolstudentsfromalongitudinalperspective.ThismeansthatIfollowindividualstudentsandtrackwhichSTEMcoursestheytakeinhighschoolbythetimetheygraduate.Thisapproachhastheadvantageofaccuratelyreflectingstudents’educationalexperience.Datapresentedthiswaycompensatenaturallyforpopulationgrowth.Thismethodhasthedisadvantagethatthedatalagbehindthemostrecentinformationavailableabouttheschools,becauseonemustfolloweachstudentthroughaminimumoffouryearstogivethemthechancetocompletehighschoolnormally.Forexample,ifin2016–2017therewasalargeriseinjuniorstakingComputerScience,thisapproachwouldmissit.ThatiswhyIwillalsopresentsnapshotsofcourseenrollmentbyyear.

Figure3:STEMcourse-takingforfreshmeninhighschool2008–2014, disaggregatedbyfree/reducedlunchstatus.Source:TexasEducationalResearchCenter.

Year in ninth grade

Pre Calc

AP Calc

85%90%

Year in ninth grade

Basic/APBiology

Basic/APChemistry

Basic/APComp Sci

Basic/APPhysics

Robotics

GroupFree or Reduced Lunch Not Free or Reduced Lunch

Theprogressofstudentsthroughhighschoolcanbeerratic.Eachyear,approximately85%ofstudentsinthesamplewhoenterasfreshmenmakeitto12thgrade,and75%gothroughhighschoolinfouryears,advancingonegradeeveryyear.Thefigurepresentedheremakesuseofallstudentswhowerein9thgradeinthespecifiedyear.So,ifIshowthat20%ofstudentseligibleforfreeandreduced-pricelunchenteringin2012–2013tookIntegratedPhysics/Chemistry(IPC),whatthismeansisthatwefoundallstudentswhowerein9thgradein2012–2013(thisneednotbetheonlyyeartheywerein9thgrade)andwhowereeligiblethatyearforfreeandreduced-pricelunch.Focusingonthatcohort,Ifindthat20%ofthemtookIPCatsomepointbetween2012–2013whentheywerein9thgradeand2015–2016,whichisthelastyearofdataavailabletous.

Coursesarearrangedinorderofdescendingenrollment.ThecoursewithhighestenrollmentisBiology,whichessentiallyeverystudenttakes.NextcomesGeometry.OnemightexpectAlgebraItobenearthetopofthelist,buttensofthousandsofstudentstakeAlgebraIinmiddleschool,andthelongitudinalstudiesconsideronlyhighschoolcourse-taking.NearlyallstudentstakeGeneralChemistryaswell.Thestudentswhoenteredhighschoolin2012–2013wereexpectingtohavetotakeit,andwouldtypicallyhavesignedupinSpring2013totakeitassophomoresthefollowingyear.ByFall2013,HB5hadmadeitoptional,butthereisnoindicationthatstudentschangedtheirplans.HB5technicallymadeAlgebraIIoptional,andthefreshmenof2012–2013couldhavetakentheotherallowedmathematicsclassesinstead,butAlgebraIIenrollmentwasunchangedfromthepreviousyear,andevenincreasedslightlycomparedwiththeyearbeforethat.

GeneralPhysicsdoesshowadropforthefreshmenenteringin2012–2013,butthisisalmostcompletelyoffsetbyacorrespondingriseinAPPhysics,andsodoesnotrepresentadeclineincollegepreparatoryphysicsenrollment.Forthisreason,IsumtogetherregularandAPclassenrollmentswheneveritmakessensetodoso.Pre-Calculus,likeAlgebraII,heldsteadyforstudentswhowerein9thgradein2012–2013comparedwiththepreviousyearandalsoshowedaslightjumprelativetotheyearbeforethat.

TheonlycoursethatshowsastrongdeclineinenrollmentduringtheanalysisperiodisIPC.Thisisalower-levelsciencecoursethaneitherPhysicsorChemistry.UnderHB5,studentswereallowedtosubstituteitforPhysicsandChemistry,buttheeffectofthelegislativechangesofarhasbeentostopitfromdecliningfurther,nottobringitback.

TheremainingSTEMcoursesarealloptionalandhaveconsiderablysmallerenrollments.BecauseHB5wasintendedtoallowstudentstopursuecareer-friendlypaths,onemightexpectComputerScienceenrollmenttohavestartedgrowingstrongly.ComputerScienceenrollmenthasindeedgrown,butthegrowthisslowandstudentparticipationremainsunder10%.ThestrongestgrowthisinRobotics,buttheenrollmentisstillminiscule.

ForalltheAPcoursesandforComputerScience,thereisasubstantialgapbetweenthefractionofstudentswhoareeligibleforfreeandreduced-pricelunchtakingtheclassesandthosenoteligible.ThegapislargestinAPComputerScience,whereitisafactorof3andhasbeengrowing.AmongtheseoptionalSTEMclasses,onlyRoboticsenrollsthesamefractionoflow-incomeandwell-offstudents.

Figure4showslongitudinalcourse-taking,butnowbreakingoutracialandethnicgroups.Again,thereisnosharpchangevisibleforthestudentswhowerein9thgradein2012–2013relativetothepreviousyear.MaybethemoststrikingfeatureofthegraphistheextenttowhichAsianstudentshavebeenpursuingtheadvancedSTEMclasses.TheyarethreetimesaslikelytotakeComputerScienceandfivetimesaslikelytotakeAPComputerScienceasanyothergroup.ThegeneralpatternisthatBlackandHispanicstudentsenrollinadvancedcoursesatthelowestrate,withWhitestudentsatasomewhathigherrateandAsianstudentsatamuchhigherrate.Thesegroupdisparities,ifanything,grewoverthestudyperiod.

Figure4:STEMCourse-TakinginHighSchoolfor2008–2014, disaggregatedbyracialandethnicgroups.Source:TexasEducationalResearchCenter.

COURSEENROLLMENTSHAPSHOTS

Inowpresentasecondviewofcourse-takingbasedoncourseenrollmentdata.ThismethodhastheadvantagethatonecanfollowdevelopmentsclosertothepresentandobtainamorecurrentestimateoftheconsequencesofHB5.However,onecannolongerspeakwithasmuchaccuracyoftheexperienceofspecificstudentsorspecifictypesofstudents.Soastoprovidesomesenseoftheimpactondifferentstudentpopulations,Idividedschoolsupeachyearintofourgroupswithroughlyequalenrollment,inorderofincreasingfractionofstudentseligibleforfreeandreduced-pricelunch.Thesegroupsdescribeschoolswithincreasingpovertyconcentration.SoastoaccountfullyforAlgebraI,Iincludebothmiddleandhighschools.Iconstructthequartileboundariesseparatelyeachyearandseparatelyformiddleandhighschools.

Figure5showsenrollmentinselectedmathematicscoursesfrom2005to2016.TheoverallmessageisthatforAlgebraI,Geometry,andAlgebraII,courseenrollmentshavebeenincreasingsteadilywiththeschoolpopulation.ThereisnosignofadropinenrollmentinanymathematicscoursesafterHB5.Enrollmentvariesaccordingtoschoolpovertyconcentration,butthevariationisnotassevereaswithothercourses.Still,intherichestschools,thenumberofstudentstakingGeometryequalsthenumbertakingAlgebraI,whileinthepoorestschools,thenumbertakingGeometryis20%lessthanthenumbertakingAlgebraI,andthenumbertakingAlgebraIIis15%lowerstill.Figure6focusesondistrictsthatenrollhighschoolstudentsintheDistinguishedPlanbydefault.Themainobservationhereisthatthesedistrictscontainaheavyconcentrationofschoolswithloweconomicneed,anditisonlyinschoolswithloweconomicneedwhereonecanseeanevidenteffectsofarofthispolicy.

Year in ninth grade

Pre Calc

AP Calc

84%86%88%90%

30%40%

Year in ninth grade

Basic/APBiology

Basic/APChemistry

Basic/APComp Sci

Basic/APPhysics

Comp Sci

Robotics

10%15%

20%40%60%

GroupAsian Black Hispanic White

Figure5:Enrollmentinselectedmathematicsclasses,2005–2016. DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.

Figure6:AlgebraenrollmentsindistrictsthatenrollstudentsintheDistinguishedPlanbydefault.

ThenumbersofstudentstakingPre-CalculusandCalculushavegrownmuchfasterthanthestudentpopulation,althoughthenumbersarestillsmallincomparisonwithotherclasses.StudentsintherichestschoolsaretwiceaslikelytotakePre-Calculusasinthepoorestschools,andthreetimesaslikelytotakeCalculus.Thereisnosign,however,thatHB5hadaneffectonanyofthesetrends.

Lowest PovertyConcentration

Lower PovertyConcentration

Higher PovertyConcentration

Highest PovertyConcentration

Mathematics by School Poverty Quartile

CoursesAlgebra IAlgebra II

GeometryPrecalculus

Calculus

DLA NotDefault

DLA byDefault

Algebra by School Poverty Quartile

CoursesAlgebra I Algebra II

OneofthehopeswithHB5wasthatitwouldallowstudentstopursueareasofinterest.InFigure7andFigure8,Iexaminetwocoursesthatmightbeexpectedtoseeenrollmentgains:StatisticsandComputerScience.Statisticshasbeenachievingrapidgrowthforadecade,mainlyinschoolswithlowpovertyconcentration,andHB5doesnotseemtohaveaffectedthisonewayoranother.ComputerSciencedoesshowaparticularlylargegainin2014–2015through2016–2017afterHB5passed.Thismainlyaffectsschoolswiththemostaffluentstudents.

Figure7:EnrollmentinStatistics,2005–2016.DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.

Figure8:EnrollmentinComputerScience,2005–2016.DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.

tStatistics by School Poverty Quartile

CoursesAP Statistics Statistics

Computer Science by School Poverty Quartile

CoursesAP or IB Computer Science Computer Science

Figure9:EnrollmentinPhysics,2005–2016.DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.

Figure10:EnrollmentinChemistry,2005–2016.DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.

Figure9showsthehistoryofenrollmentinPhysics.Nationally,lessthan40%ofU.S.highschoolstudentstakePhysics,althoughmultipleyearsofhighschoolPhysicsarepartofthedefaulthighschoolcourseofferingsinEuropeandAsia.Texashadarrivedatthepointwhere80%ofallstudentsweretakingPhysics,whichmadeTexasstandoutamongU.S.states.ThepassageofHB5happenstohavecoincidedwiththeintroductionofanewconceptualAPPhysicsexamthatled

Physics by School Poverty Quartile

CoursesAP or IB Physics Physics

Chemistry by School Poverty Quartile

Courses AP or IB Chemistry Chemistry

toalargeincreaseinAPPhysicsenrollment.AfterHB5,Physicsenrollmentendeditsdecadeofrapidgrowth,butsofarhasonlydeclinedslightly.Studentsintheschoolswiththemostconcentratedpovertyarearound25%lesslikelytotakePhysicsthanstudentsinthemostaffluentschools.

ThestorywithChemistryissimilar,althoughthegrowthsince2005hadnotbeenasdramatic(Figure10).TexashasbeenofferingChemistrytoessentiallyeverystudentsincetheclassthatenteredin2011.AfterHB5passedandChemistrybecameoptional,therearesignsthatenrollmentisdecliningslightlyexceptfortherichestquarterofschools.BothChemistryandPhysicscanbecomparedwithBiology(Figure11),whichremainsrequired;Biologyisofferedtovirtuallyallhighschoolstudents,and,likemathematics,hasenrollmentclimbingslowlywithpopulationacrossallschoolgroups.

Figure11: EnrollmentinBiology,2005–2016.DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.

Figure12: EnrollmentinIntegratedPhysics/Chemistry,2005–2016.DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.

Biology by School Poverty Quartile

Courses AP or IB Biology Biology

Integrated Physics/Chemistry by School Poverty Quartile

ThefinalcourseconsideredisIntegratedPhysics/Chemistry,whoseenrollmentisshowninFigure12.Thesteepdeclineinenrollmentofthiscourse,whichdoesnotassistwithcollegeadmission,seemstohavehaltedafterHB5,butenrollmentremainsataverylowlevel.

CONCLUSIONS

HB5markedtheendofapushatleastadecadelongtoprepareeveryTexashighschoolstudentforpost-secondaryeducation.ThemostseriousconsequencesofaristhatthepercentageofCollegeReadyhighschoolgraduateshasplummeted.Themostseveredropshavetakenplaceforlow-income,Hispanic,andBlackstudents,althoughthedropsaffectallincome,racial,andethnicgroups.

Thepicturethatemergesofcourse-takingisnotasworrisome.Low-incomestudents,andBlackandHispanicstudents,arelesslikelytotakeadvancedSTEMcoursesthanwell-offstudents,andWhiteandAsianstudents,butHB5hasnotyetaffectedthesegaps.Mathematicscourse-takingoverallhardlyseemsaffected,despitethefactthatAlgebraIIhasnowtechnicallybecomeoptional.Ifanything,enrollmentisincreasingacrosstheboard.TheredoesseemtobeariseofenrollmentinComputerScienceandStatistics,almostallinschoolsservingtheleasteconomicallyneedystudents.EnrollmentsinPhysicsandChemistryhaveslightlyheadeddownward,buttheeffectisnotyetlarge.

Thearchitectsofthe60x30planfor60%ofyoungTexanstocompletepost-secondaryeducationby2030claimedthatachievingthissubstantialincreaseinpost-secondaryattainmentwasessentialforthefutureofTexas.The2015–2016dropinCollegeReadinessCertificationwillmakeitharderorimpossibleachieve,aswillfurtherparticipationdeclinesincoursessuchasPhysicsandChemistry.ThefutureofyoungTexansandTexasisatrisk,butitisnotyetlost.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

SarahStephensgreatlyassistedinobtaininglongitudinaldatafromtheEducationalResearchCenter.IhadmanyvaluablediscussionswithSofiaBahenaandHectorBojorquez.ThankstoAmyWintersandKimberlyReevesfornumeroussuggestionsonhowtoimproveclarityandtoMelanieHauptforproofreading.

rise and fall of texas stem education€¦ · 07-03-2018 · rise and fall of texas stem...

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