rise and fall of texas stem education€¦ · 07-03-2018 · rise and fall of texas stem...

RiseandFallofTexasSTEMEducation:March2018 1

RISEANDFALLOFTEXASSTEMEDUCATIONCOLLEGEREADINESSANDCOURSE-TAKINGSINCEHOUSEBILL5OF2013

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

MichaelMarder,ExecutiveDirectorofUTeachandProfessorintheDepartmentofPhysics

TheUniversityofTexasatAustinMarch2018

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

HouseBill5of2013wasthemostimportanteducationbillinTexasofthelastdecade.Itgreatlyreducedhigh-stakestestinginTexashighschoolsandchangedhighschoolgraduationrequirementstoaccommodatestudentswhointendtobypassafour-yearcollegedegreeandgodirectlyintotheworkforce,withorwithoutformalpost-secondarytraining.

ThefirstclasswhosewholehighschoolcareerwassetbyHB5istheclassof2018.Theyhavenotyetgraduated. However,manyprovisionsofthebillkickedinassoonasthefallof2013.Weknowthecoursesthatstudentshavebeentakingastheygothroughhighschool,andweknowhowtheyhavedoneontestsalongtheway,sothepictureofhowTexaseducationlooksafterHB5iscomingintofocus.

ProponentsofHB5arguedatthetimethatthestate’snewworkforce-centricdiplomaswerenotbetterorworsethanthepreviousones—justdifferent.Hereareresultssofar,focusingonSTEM—someofwhicharegood,butmostofwhicharebad,neutral,ormixed.

• Good.Highschoolgraduationrateshavecontinuedtoincrease,slowlyandsteadily,andremainamongthebestinthenation,overallandbysubgroup.

• Bad.Thereisarapidandalarmingdropinpost-secondaryopportunitiesforTexasstudentsoverall.Thedropaffectsallgroups,butisparticularlysevereforstudentsinschoolsofconcentratedpoverty,andforBlackandHispanicstudents.

• Neutral.ThoughAlgebraIIbecameoptional,therateatwhichstudentstakethatcoursehasnotdroppedmuch,becausethealternativesforitarelessattractive.PhysicsandChemistryalsobecomeoptional,andtherateatwhichstudentstakethemhasnotdroppedmuch,either.

• Mixed.ThepercentageofstudentstakingComputerScience,Statistics,andRoboticsisgrowingexponentially.However,forComputerScienceandStatistics,thesegainsareoverwhelminglyconcentratedinschoolsoflowpoverty.

Thus,whilecontinuingtodriveupthepercentageofstudentswhoobtainahighschooldiploma,Texasisallowingthevalueofthediplomatodegrade.ThefreedomHB5gavestudentstopursuetheirinterestsisalmostexclusivelybenefitingstudentsinlow-povertyschools.Studentsfacedecreasedpost-secondaryopportunitiesoverall,andthedecreaseismostsevereforBlack,Hispanic,andlow-incomestudents.


RISEANDFALLOFTEXASSTEMEDUCATIONCOLLEGEREADINESSANDCOURSE-TAKINGSINCEHOUSEBILL5OF2013

MichaelMarder,ExecutiveDirectorofUTeachandProfessorintheDepartmentofPhysics

TheUniversityofTexasatAustinMarch2018

BACKGROUND

Fromthelate1990suntil2010,Texasimplementededucationalpoliciesthatworkedovermanyyearstoincreasestudentsuccessinmeasuresofcollegeandcareerreadinesswhileatthesametimeimprovinggraduationrates.

In2011,substantialbudgetcutsreducedfundingtothepublicschoolsand,inparticular,reducedexpenditureonprogramsdesignedtohelpstudentsstrugglingacademically.In2013,thestatepassedHB5,whichchangedrequirementsfortestingandgraduation.Mandatoryexamsthatstudentshadusedtodemonstratecollegereadinessallbecameoptional.AlgebraII,Physics,andChemistrycoursesalsomovedfrombeingrequiredinthedefaultgraduationplantobeingoptional.(SeeTable1.)

SomemotivationsforHB5weretoreducethepressureofthehigh-stakestestingsystemonstudents,teachers,andschools,andtoprovidestudentswithfreedomtopursuesubjectsthatinterestedthemratherthanmakingmoststudentsfollowarigidcurriculumwithrelativelyfewelectives.

Itisdifficulttoarguewiththeseintentions.However,thereformsoftheprevioustwodecadesalsohadbeenmotivatedbygoodintentions,whichweretousethepressureofthetestingandaccountabilitysystemtoimposesteadilyrisingstandardsonapubliceducationsystemwithapoorrecordofservinglow-income,Hispanic,andBlackstudents.Overthecourseofmorethanadecade,thispressurehadproducedpositiveresults,althoughsignificantgapsineducationandopportunitybetweeneconomic,racial,andethnicgroupsneverwentaway.Thus,itisimportanttomonitortheconsequencesofchangesintestingandgraduationrequirementstoseewhethergapscontinuetodiminishorgrowandwhetheropportunityincreasesordecreases.

POST-SECONDARYOPPORTUNITY

Post-secondaryopportunityrosefrom2006until2013andthenplummetedforTexashighschoolgraduatesin2016.ThisistheresultofadropintheofficialCollegeReadinessCertificationrate,showninFigure1,whichbreaksdowntheresultsbyschoolswithdifferentlevelsofpovertyconcentration.

CollegeReadinessCertificationisthenameforaparticularcollegereadinessmeasurethattheTexasEducationAgencypreparesforeveryTexashighschoolgraduateaspartoftheTexasSuccessInitiative(TSI).Forstudentswhoenteredhighschoolpriorto2011,therewereseveralwaystobecertifiedCollegeReady.TheycouldgetscoresaboveacutoffonthemandatoryTAKSexamstheirjunioryear.Theycouldgetabove1110ontheSATor24ontheACT.Ortheycouldcompleteacollegecourseorreceivehonorabledischargefrommilitaryservice.Farandawaythemostlikelywaytogetthecertificationwasthroughscoresonthemandatorystatetests.

ThestorybehindtherisingrateofCollegeReadinessCertificationfrom2006until2014inFigure1isthatmoreandmorestudentssuccessfullymetabenchmarkontheexit-levelTAKS.WhenTexastransitionedfromTAKStoSTAARin2011,theexamsdesignedtotakeoverthecollegecertificationtaskwereAlgebraIIandEnglishIII.


UnderHB5,AlgebraIIandEnglishIIIbecameoptionalfordistrictstooffer,theydisappearedfromtheannualtestingcalendar,andonlyatrickleofresultsfromthemhavebeenreportedsince2012–2013.SchoolswereencouragedtohavestudentstaketheTexasSuccessInitiativeAssessment(TSIA)whilestillinhighschool.However,studentswerenotrequiredtotakeit,andthisisthemainreasonthatCollegeReadinessCertificationratesplummeted.

Table1:Graduationplansovertime.

Year Graduationplanfor enteringfreshmen

Graduationplanrecommended forhighschoolgraduates

Mandatoryhighschooltestsfor

freshmen

Mandatoryhighschooltestsfor

graduates

2006-2007

Recommended:4English, 3math,3science, 3.5socialstudies

4English,3math,3science, 3.5socialstudies TAKS TAKS

2007-2008

Recommended:4x4 4English,3math,3science, 3.5socialstudies

TAKS TAKS

2008-2009 Recommended:4x4 4English,3math,3science,

3.5socialstudies TAKS TAKS

2009-2010 Recommended:4x4 4English,3math,3science,

3.5socialstudies TAKS TAKS

2010-2011 Recommended:4x4 4x4 TAKS TAKS

2011-2012 Recommended:4x4 4x4 STAAR(15tests) TAKS

2012-2013 Recommended:4x4 4x4 STAAR(15tests) TAKS

2013-2014

Transition:Foundation+Endorsement,

4x4allavailable4x4 STAAR(5tests) TAKS

2014-2015 Foundation+Endorsement 4x4 STAAR(5tests)

STAAR(15tests,droppedto5junior

year)

2015-2016 Foundation+Endorsement

Studentsenteredunder4x4,buthadavailableFoundation+Endorsement

orDistinguishedSTAAR(5tests)

STAAR(15tests,droppedto5

sophomoreyear)

2016-2017

Foundation+Endorsement Studentschosebetween4x4orFoundation+Endorsementonentry

STAAR(5tests) STAAR(5tests)

2017-2018 Foundation+Endorsement

FirstcohortonlychoosingbetweenFoundation+Endorsement

orDistinguishedSTAAR(5tests) STAAR(5tests)

Source:TexasEducationAgency.Stategraduationrequirements.Availableathttp://tea.texas.gov/graduation.aspx.


Figure1:CollegeReadinessCertificationofgraduatingTexashighschoolseniorsfrom2007to2016, disaggregatedbyschoolpovertyconcentration.Source:TexasEducationAgency,AEIS,andTAPR.

Forgraduatesfromthequarterofschoolswiththelowestconcentrationoflow-incomestudents,CollegeReadinessCertificationfellfromapeakof71%to55%in2015–2016.Forgraduatesfromthequarterofschoolswherepovertyismosthighlyconcentrated,CollegeReadinessCertificationdroppedfromthepeakof42%to13%in2015–2016. Figure2showsCollegeReadinessCertificationforvariousracial,ethnic,andeconomicgroups.ThedropinCollegeReadinessCertificationwasmostsevereforBlackstudents,forwhomitfellfromapeakof42%to17%in2015–2016.ItwasleastsevereforWhitestudents,forwhomitfellfromapeakof71%to55%in2015–2016.

Figure2:CollegeReadinessCertificationofgraduatingTexashighschoolseniorsfrom2007to2016,

disaggregatedbyracial,ethnic,andeconomicgroups.Source:TexasEducationAgency,AEIS,andTAPR.

ThisdropinCollegeReadinessCertificationwillhaveseriousconsequencesforstudents.Itisnotjustanarbitraryopinionaboutwhichstudentsarereadyforcollege.Itisactuallyahiddencollegeadmissionsrequirement.Itishiddenbecausetechnicallyitisnotanadmissionsrequirementatall.Collegesareforbiddenfromusingitaspartoftheadmissionsprocess.Highschoolgraduatescanenrollinanycommunitycollege,andmanyfour-yearcollegesareopentoallhighschoolgraduatesaswell.However,althoughstudentsareadmitted,theycanbebarredfromcourseworkthatleadstoa

2006

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2010

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2012

2013

2014

2015

0

10

20

30

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Aver

age

Colle

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eadi

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(%)

Texas College Readiness, schools of different poverty concentration

Poverty GroupRichest quarter of schoolsNext-to-richest quarter of schools

Next-to-poorest quarter of schoolsPoorest quarter of schools

2006

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eady

Texas College Readiness for Selected Groups

GroupsAverage College Readiness of White StudentsAverage College ReadinessAverage College Readiness of Hispanic StudentsAverage College Readiness of Economically Disadvantaged StudentsAverage College Readiness of Black Students


long-termcertificateordegreeuntiltheyareCollegeReadyCertifiedinmathematics,reading,andwriting.Thestudentsareadmitted,buttheyarerequiredtospendtimeandmoneyoncourseworkatthehighschoollevelthatwillnotcounttowardtheirdegreeuntiltheyareofficiallyreadyforfreshman-levelcourses.

Theseverityofthishiddenentrancerequirementissoftenedbythefactthatcollegesareunderordertohelpstudentsovercomeit,butevenso,theoddsaredaunting.IfastudentcomesoutofhighschoolwithoutbeingCollegeReady,thenuponwalkingintoacommunitycollege,heissupposedtotaketheTexasSuccessInitiativeAssessment(TSIA).Mathematicsposesthehighestbarrier.Thechancesofpassingthemathematicsportionofthisassessmentarearound20%.Studentswhodonotpassthemathematicsorreadingexamsmustenrollindevelopmentaleducationcourses.Ofthosewhoenrollindevelopmentaleducation,lessthanhalfcompletethecourseworksuccessfully,and,ofthose,onlyhalfcompletetheirfirstcollege-levelmathematicscourse.Thenetresultisthatonly15%ofstudentswhoentercollegewithoutbeingCollegeReadyinmathematicsgetthroughamathematicsrequirementfortheirdegreewithintwoyears.EvenbeforethelatestdropinCollegeReadinessCertification,morethan60%ofstudentsattwo-yearcollegeswereenrollingwithoutbeingCollegeReady.1

AstherisingwaveofstudentsleavinghighschoolbeingCollegeReadyenterstwo-yearcollegesoverthenextseveralyears,theywillberequiredtotaketheTSIA,andthereisnoreasontothinkthatthefractionwhopasstheexamorsucceedindevelopmentaleducationcourseswillriseincomparisontothepast.Thefractionofstudentsobtainingpost-secondarydegreesandlong-termcertificatesisverylikelytodecline.Thisdevelopmentisparticularlyunwelcomeinlightofanambitiousplanlaunchedin2015“whosemajorgoalisthat60percentofyoungTexanswillholdacertificateordegreeby2030.”2 Thebaselineyearwas2015,when41percentofyoungTexansheldacertificateordegree.IncreasingthispercentagewasacknowledgedtobedifficultatatimewhenCollegeReadinessCertificationhadbeenrisingforadecade.Reachingthegoalsof60x30whileitisdroppingisdifficulttoimagine.

DespitethefactthatacentraleducationalgoalofTexasisslippingoutofreach,thereisnosignofactiontoremedytheproblem.ThisisexplainedbyofficialresponsestothedropinCollegeReadinessCertificationrates.

HB5includedarequirementthatitsoutcomesbemonitored.TheTexasEducationAgency,TexasWorkforceCommission,andTexasHigherEducationCoordinatingBoardwererequiredtomonitor“highschoolgraduationrates,collegereadiness,collegeadmissions,collegecompletion,obtainmentofworkforcecertificates,employmentrates,andearnings.”3 ThistaskwasassignedtoAmericanInstitutesforResearch,whoproducedaninterimreportinthefallof20154 andafinalreportinDecember2017.

TheAIRinterimreportdoesanexcellentjobofsummarizingthehistoryofTexasaccountabilityandtestingrequirements.ItshowshowimportantindicatorssuchasCollegeReadinessCertificationandgraduationrateshavevariedovertime.Itincludesresultsofacomprehensivesurveyofdistricts,providingavaluablerecordofdistrictactionsinresponsetoHB5upthrough2015.

TheAIRreportauthorsobserveinfootnote15that,“AlthoughtheSTAARAlgebraIIandEnglishIIIassessmentsarescheduledtobeadministeredagainin2015–2016,theyareoptionalfordistricts.”However,AlgebraIIandEnglishIIIdid

1 TexasHigherEducationCoordinatingBoard.(2017).2017Texaspublichighereducationalmanac(report).Austin:Author.Availableat:http://www.thecb.state.tx.us/reports/PDF/9435.PDF?CFID=64117197&CFTOKEN=93556140.2 TexasHigherEducationCoordinatingBoard.(2017).2017Texaspublichighereducationalmanac(webpage).Availableat:http://www.thecb.state.tx.us/index.cfm?objectid=DDEEF064-B397-9EBA-773779AAC15507B4.3 TexasEducationAgency.Programevaluation:Researchreports.Availableat:http://tea.texas.gov/Reports_and_Data/Program_Evaluations/Research_Reports/Program_Evaluation___Research_Reports.4 AmericanInstitutesforResearch.(2015).HouseBill5evaluation.Austin:Author.Availableat:http://tea.texas.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&ItemID=25769823287&libID=25769823385


notappearontheSTAARtestingcalendarafter2012–2013,andnoresultsfromthesetestsappearedafterthatyearinstatedatareleasesuntil2015–2016,whenasmallfractionofthestate’sstudentswerereportedtobetakingitagain.

Thefinalstate-supportedAIRreportwasissuedinDecember2017.FromtheExecutiveSummaryofthatreport5:

Becauseofthesignificantchangesintestingrequirementsforthe2011–12cohort,theirmeasuredTSI[TexasSuccessInitiative]readinessratescannotbedirectlycomparedtoratesofearliercohortsforthepurposeofdescribingtrendsintruecollegereadiness.The2011–12incomingGrade9cohortwasthefirstcohortwheretheoptiontomeetTSIreadinessstandardsbyachievingatorabovetheHERCscoreonanexit-levelTAKSwaseliminatedwhentheSTAARreplacedTAKSasthestate’sstandardizedstudentassessment.

Inthebodyofthereport,thereistheacknowledgment:“WhileitisbeyondthescopeofthisreporttodeterminethedirecteffectsofchangesintestingrequirementsonTSIreadinessrates,stakeholdersarestillmetwithtangibleandsignificantimpactsassociatedwiththeseobservedrates.”

AlthoughtheconsequencesofCollegeReadinessCertificationforstudentsandforthestateareveryreal,themainproblemismoretechnicalthansubstantive.Whathighschoolgraduatesactuallyknowandcandoalmostcertainlydidnotchangemuchbetween2014–2015and2015–2016.Whathaschangediswhattheyprovedthattheyknowandcando.Thus,despitethenegativeconsequencesforstudentsindividuallyandforthestateingeneral,thereisnosenseofurgencytofixtheproblem.Thisseemstobebecauseofthesentimentthat“true”collegereadinesshasnotchanged.Unfortunately,“true”collegereadinesswillnotgetstudentsthroughcollege,fortheofficialstatemeasuresofCollegeReadinessCertificationwillpreventthemfromtakingcredit-bearingcourses.

COURSE-TAKINGINSTEM

Collegereadinesscanbemeasuredinmanyways.TheofficialmeasureIjustdiscussedisone,butthisiscertainlynotthebestwaytodecideifschoolsandteachershavepreparedstudentsforcollege.Ithaschangedgreatlyovertime,anditalsoneednotcorrespondwelltowhetherstudentswhogotocollegeactuallysucceed.Anotherwaytolookatcollegereadinessisthroughthecoursesthatstudentstake.Thistypeofcollegereadinessalsohasadministrativeconsequencesforstudents.Itisconnectedtocollegeadmission.OnlystudentswhograduateontheDistinguishedPlanareeligibleforautomaticcollegeadmissionunderthetop10%rule,andtheDistinguishedPlanrequirespassingAlgebraII,Chemistry,andPhysics.Mostfour-yearcollegeseitherrequirethesecoursesforadmissionorstronglyencouragethem

IexaminedSTEMcourse-takingpatternstoseeiftheyhavebeenchanging.STEMcoursesarenotoriouslychallengingforstudents,andtheypresentchallengesforschoolsaswell.Physicsteachersregularlyleadthelistofthehardestteacherstohire,withChemistryandmathematicsnotfarbehind.Thedecades-longpushtoincreasecollegereadinessinTexasthatpeakedin2013–2104includedapushtostaffPhysics,Chemistry,andadvancedmathematicscoursesinhighschool.IncontrastwiththecollapseinCollegeReadinessCertificationthatinprinciplecouldbecuredwiththeadministrationofnewtests,adeclineintheabilitytoteachSTEMsubjectswouldmeanamuchmoresubstantiallossinstudentaccomplishmentandschoolinfrastructure.YetsuchadeclinecanbeexpectedbecauseHB5madeAlgebraII,Physics,andChemistryoptional.6

5 AmericanInstitutesforResearch.(2017).HouseBill5evaluation:Finalreport.Austin:Author.Availableat:https://tea.texas.gov/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?LinkIdentifier=id&ItemID=51539618631&libID=51539618631.6 ThecaseofAlgebraIIiscomplicatedbecausestudentsmuststillchooseamathematicscoursefromalistonwhichAlgebraIIisarguablytheeasiestandmostfamiliar.ThisresultedfromadeliberateeffortbehindthescenestosteerstudentstowardAlgebraII.TherewasnosimilareffortdirectedtowardPhysicsandChemistry;studentscansatisfytheirphysicalsciencerequirementwithanIntegratedPhysics/ChemistryclassthatisatalowerlevelthaneitherPhysicsorChemistry.


DefinitiveinformationabouttheconsequencesofHB5forcourse-takingwillnotexistuntiltheclassthatenteredhighschoolinthefallof2014graduatesinthespringof2018,andthosedatawillnotbecomeavailableuntil2019.Still,studentshaveadvancedfarenoughinhighschoolwiththeprovisionsofHB5ineffectthatpreliminarystatementsaboutcourse-takingarepossible.

Overall,thenewshereispromising.TherehasnotbeenasharpdropinthenumbersofstudentstakingSTEMcourses.Iprovidetwoseparateviewsofthesituation:longitudinalbycohortandsnapshotbyyear.

LONGITUDINALCOURSE-TAKING

Figure3summarizesSTEMcourse-takingforTexashighschoolstudentsfromalongitudinalperspective.ThismeansthatIfollowindividualstudentsandtrackwhichSTEMcoursestheytakeinhighschoolbythetimetheygraduate.Thisapproachhastheadvantageofaccuratelyreflectingstudents’educationalexperience.Datapresentedthiswaycompensatenaturallyforpopulationgrowth.Thismethodhasthedisadvantagethatthedatalagbehindthemostrecentinformationavailableabouttheschools,becauseonemustfolloweachstudentthroughaminimumoffouryearstogivethemthechancetocompletehighschoolnormally.Forexample,ifin2016–2017therewasalargeriseinjuniorstakingComputerScience,thisapproachwouldmissit.ThatiswhyIwillalsopresentsnapshotsofcourseenrollmentbyyear.

Figure3:STEMcourse-takingforfreshmeninhighschool2008–2014, disaggregatedbyfree/reducedlunchstatus.Source:TexasEducationalResearchCenter.

Year in ninth grade

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Geom

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Year in ninth grade

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Basic/APBiology

Basic/APChemistry

Basic/APComp Sci

Basic/APPhysics

IPC

Robotics

96%

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Coho

rt %

85%

90%

Coho

rt %

4%

6%

Coho

rt %

60%

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Coho

rt %

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Coho

rt %

1%

Coho

rt %

GroupFree or Reduced Lunch Not Free or Reduced Lunch


Theprogressofstudentsthroughhighschoolcanbeerratic.Eachyear,approximately85%ofstudentsinthesamplewhoenterasfreshmenmakeitto12thgrade,and75%gothroughhighschoolinfouryears,advancingonegradeeveryyear.Thefigurepresentedheremakesuseofallstudentswhowerein9thgradeinthespecifiedyear.So,ifIshowthat20%ofstudentseligibleforfreeandreduced-pricelunchenteringin2012–2013tookIntegratedPhysics/Chemistry(IPC),whatthismeansisthatwefoundallstudentswhowerein9thgradein2012–2013(thisneednotbetheonlyyeartheywerein9thgrade)andwhowereeligiblethatyearforfreeandreduced-pricelunch.Focusingonthatcohort,Ifindthat20%ofthemtookIPCatsomepointbetween2012–2013whentheywerein9thgradeand2015–2016,whichisthelastyearofdataavailabletous.

Coursesarearrangedinorderofdescendingenrollment.ThecoursewithhighestenrollmentisBiology,whichessentiallyeverystudenttakes.NextcomesGeometry.OnemightexpectAlgebraItobenearthetopofthelist,buttensofthousandsofstudentstakeAlgebraIinmiddleschool,andthelongitudinalstudiesconsideronlyhighschoolcourse-taking.NearlyallstudentstakeGeneralChemistryaswell.Thestudentswhoenteredhighschoolin2012–2013wereexpectingtohavetotakeit,andwouldtypicallyhavesignedupinSpring2013totakeitassophomoresthefollowingyear.ByFall2013,HB5hadmadeitoptional,butthereisnoindicationthatstudentschangedtheirplans.HB5technicallymadeAlgebraIIoptional,andthefreshmenof2012–2013couldhavetakentheotherallowedmathematicsclassesinstead,butAlgebraIIenrollmentwasunchangedfromthepreviousyear,andevenincreasedslightlycomparedwiththeyearbeforethat.

GeneralPhysicsdoesshowadropforthefreshmenenteringin2012–2013,butthisisalmostcompletelyoffsetbyacorrespondingriseinAPPhysics,andsodoesnotrepresentadeclineincollegepreparatoryphysicsenrollment.Forthisreason,IsumtogetherregularandAPclassenrollmentswheneveritmakessensetodoso.Pre-Calculus,likeAlgebraII,heldsteadyforstudentswhowerein9thgradein2012–2013comparedwiththepreviousyearandalsoshowedaslightjumprelativetotheyearbeforethat.

TheonlycoursethatshowsastrongdeclineinenrollmentduringtheanalysisperiodisIPC.Thisisalower-levelsciencecoursethaneitherPhysicsorChemistry.UnderHB5,studentswereallowedtosubstituteitforPhysicsandChemistry,buttheeffectofthelegislativechangesofarhasbeentostopitfromdecliningfurther,nottobringitback.

TheremainingSTEMcoursesarealloptionalandhaveconsiderablysmallerenrollments.BecauseHB5wasintendedtoallowstudentstopursuecareer-friendlypaths,onemightexpectComputerScienceenrollmenttohavestartedgrowingstrongly.ComputerScienceenrollmenthasindeedgrown,butthegrowthisslowandstudentparticipationremainsunder10%.ThestrongestgrowthisinRobotics,buttheenrollmentisstillminiscule.

ForalltheAPcoursesandforComputerScience,thereisasubstantialgapbetweenthefractionofstudentswhoareeligibleforfreeandreduced-pricelunchtakingtheclassesandthosenoteligible.ThegapislargestinAPComputerScience,whereitisafactorof3andhasbeengrowing.AmongtheseoptionalSTEMclasses,onlyRoboticsenrollsthesamefractionoflow-incomeandwell-offstudents.

Figure4showslongitudinalcourse-taking,butnowbreakingoutracialandethnicgroups.Again,thereisnosharpchangevisibleforthestudentswhowerein9thgradein2012–2013relativetothepreviousyear.MaybethemoststrikingfeatureofthegraphistheextenttowhichAsianstudentshavebeenpursuingtheadvancedSTEMclasses.TheyarethreetimesaslikelytotakeComputerScienceandfivetimesaslikelytotakeAPComputerScienceasanyothergroup.ThegeneralpatternisthatBlackandHispanicstudentsenrollinadvancedcoursesatthelowestrate,withWhitestudentsatasomewhathigherrateandAsianstudentsatamuchhigherrate.Thesegroupdisparities,ifanything,grewoverthestudyperiod.


Figure4:STEMCourse-TakinginHighSchoolfor2008–2014, disaggregatedbyracialandethnicgroups.Source:TexasEducationalResearchCenter.

COURSEENROLLMENTSHAPSHOTS

Inowpresentasecondviewofcourse-takingbasedoncourseenrollmentdata.ThismethodhastheadvantagethatonecanfollowdevelopmentsclosertothepresentandobtainamorecurrentestimateoftheconsequencesofHB5.However,onecannolongerspeakwithasmuchaccuracyoftheexperienceofspecificstudentsorspecifictypesofstudents.Soastoprovidesomesenseoftheimpactondifferentstudentpopulations,Idividedschoolsupeachyearintofourgroupswithroughlyequalenrollment,inorderofincreasingfractionofstudentseligibleforfreeandreduced-pricelunch.Thesegroupsdescribeschoolswithincreasingpovertyconcentration.SoastoaccountfullyforAlgebraI,Iincludebothmiddleandhighschools.Iconstructthequartileboundariesseparatelyeachyearandseparatelyformiddleandhighschools.

Figure5showsenrollmentinselectedmathematicscoursesfrom2005to2016.TheoverallmessageisthatforAlgebraI,Geometry,andAlgebraII,courseenrollmentshavebeenincreasingsteadilywiththeschoolpopulation.ThereisnosignofadropinenrollmentinanymathematicscoursesafterHB5.Enrollmentvariesaccordingtoschoolpovertyconcentration,butthevariationisnotassevereaswithothercourses.Still,intherichestschools,thenumberofstudentstakingGeometryequalsthenumbertakingAlgebraI,whileinthepoorestschools,thenumbertakingGeometryis20%lessthanthenumbertakingAlgebraI,andthenumbertakingAlgebraIIis15%lowerstill.Figure6focusesondistrictsthatenrollhighschoolstudentsintheDistinguishedPlanbydefault.Themainobservationhereisthatthesedistrictscontainaheavyconcentrationofschoolswithloweconomicneed,anditisonlyinschoolswithloweconomicneedwhereonecanseeanevidenteffectsofarofthispolicy.

Year in ninth grade

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GroupAsian Black Hispanic White


Figure5:Enrollmentinselectedmathematicsclasses,2005–2016. DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.

Figure6:AlgebraenrollmentsindistrictsthatenrollstudentsintheDistinguishedPlanbydefault.

ThenumbersofstudentstakingPre-CalculusandCalculushavegrownmuchfasterthanthestudentpopulation,althoughthenumbersarestillsmallincomparisonwithotherclasses.StudentsintherichestschoolsaretwiceaslikelytotakePre-Calculusasinthepoorestschools,andthreetimesaslikelytotakeCalculus.Thereisnosign,however,thatHB5hadaneffectonanyofthesetrends.

Lowest PovertyConcentration

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620

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Mathematics by School Poverty Quartile

CoursesAlgebra IAlgebra II

GeometryPrecalculus

Calculus





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Algebra by School Poverty Quartile

CoursesAlgebra I Algebra II


OneofthehopeswithHB5wasthatitwouldallowstudentstopursueareasofinterest.InFigure7andFigure8,Iexaminetwocoursesthatmightbeexpectedtoseeenrollmentgains:StatisticsandComputerScience.Statisticshasbeenachievingrapidgrowthforadecade,mainlyinschoolswithlowpovertyconcentration,andHB5doesnotseemtohaveaffectedthisonewayoranother.ComputerSciencedoesshowaparticularlylargegainin2014–2015through2016–2017afterHB5passed.Thismainlyaffectsschoolswiththemostaffluentstudents.

Figure7:EnrollmentinStatistics,2005–2016.DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.

Figure8:EnrollmentinComputerScience,2005–2016.DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.





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Computer Science by School Poverty Quartile

CoursesAP or IB Computer Science Computer Science


Figure9:EnrollmentinPhysics,2005–2016.DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.

Figure10:EnrollmentinChemistry,2005–2016.DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.

Figure9showsthehistoryofenrollmentinPhysics.Nationally,lessthan40%ofU.S.highschoolstudentstakePhysics,althoughmultipleyearsofhighschoolPhysicsarepartofthedefaulthighschoolcourseofferingsinEuropeandAsia.Texashadarrivedatthepointwhere80%ofallstudentsweretakingPhysics,whichmadeTexasstandoutamongU.S.states.ThepassageofHB5happenstohavecoincidedwiththeintroductionofanewconceptualAPPhysicsexamthatled





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Physics by School Poverty Quartile

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Chemistry by School Poverty Quartile

Courses AP or IB Chemistry Chemistry


toalargeincreaseinAPPhysicsenrollment.AfterHB5,Physicsenrollmentendeditsdecadeofrapidgrowth,butsofarhasonlydeclinedslightly.Studentsintheschoolswiththemostconcentratedpovertyarearound25%lesslikelytotakePhysicsthanstudentsinthemostaffluentschools.

ThestorywithChemistryissimilar,althoughthegrowthsince2005hadnotbeenasdramatic(Figure10).TexashasbeenofferingChemistrytoessentiallyeverystudentsincetheclassthatenteredin2011.AfterHB5passedandChemistrybecameoptional,therearesignsthatenrollmentisdecliningslightlyexceptfortherichestquarterofschools.BothChemistryandPhysicscanbecomparedwithBiology(Figure11),whichremainsrequired;Biologyisofferedtovirtuallyallhighschoolstudents,and,likemathematics,hasenrollmentclimbingslowlywithpopulationacrossallschoolgroups.

Figure11: EnrollmentinBiology,2005–2016.DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.

Figure12: EnrollmentinIntegratedPhysics/Chemistry,2005–2016.DatafrompubliclyreleasedfilesfromTexasEducationAgency.





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Integrated Physics/Chemistry by School Poverty Quartile


ThefinalcourseconsideredisIntegratedPhysics/Chemistry,whoseenrollmentisshowninFigure12.Thesteepdeclineinenrollmentofthiscourse,whichdoesnotassistwithcollegeadmission,seemstohavehaltedafterHB5,butenrollmentremainsataverylowlevel.

CONCLUSIONS

HB5markedtheendofapushatleastadecadelongtoprepareeveryTexashighschoolstudentforpost-secondaryeducation.ThemostseriousconsequencesofaristhatthepercentageofCollegeReadyhighschoolgraduateshasplummeted.Themostseveredropshavetakenplaceforlow-income,Hispanic,andBlackstudents,althoughthedropsaffectallincome,racial,andethnicgroups.

Thepicturethatemergesofcourse-takingisnotasworrisome.Low-incomestudents,andBlackandHispanicstudents,arelesslikelytotakeadvancedSTEMcoursesthanwell-offstudents,andWhiteandAsianstudents,butHB5hasnotyetaffectedthesegaps.Mathematicscourse-takingoverallhardlyseemsaffected,despitethefactthatAlgebraIIhasnowtechnicallybecomeoptional.Ifanything,enrollmentisincreasingacrosstheboard.TheredoesseemtobeariseofenrollmentinComputerScienceandStatistics,almostallinschoolsservingtheleasteconomicallyneedystudents.EnrollmentsinPhysicsandChemistryhaveslightlyheadeddownward,buttheeffectisnotyetlarge.

Thearchitectsofthe60x30planfor60%ofyoungTexanstocompletepost-secondaryeducationby2030claimedthatachievingthissubstantialincreaseinpost-secondaryattainmentwasessentialforthefutureofTexas.The2015–2016dropinCollegeReadinessCertificationwillmakeitharderorimpossibleachieve,aswillfurtherparticipationdeclinesincoursessuchasPhysicsandChemistry.ThefutureofyoungTexansandTexasisatrisk,butitisnotyetlost.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

SarahStephensgreatlyassistedinobtaininglongitudinaldatafromtheEducationalResearchCenter.IhadmanyvaluablediscussionswithSofiaBahenaandHectorBojorquez.ThankstoAmyWintersandKimberlyReevesfornumeroussuggestionsonhowtoimproveclarityandtoMelanieHauptforproofreading.

rise and fall of texas stem education€¦ · 07-03-2018 · rise and fall of texas stem...

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