regional sustainability approaches

1Sustain the Mission — Secure the Future

Regional Sustainability Regional Sustainability ApproachesApproaches

2007 Region 4 EPA/DOD/STATESEnvironmental Conference

19-21 June 07

Elizabeth Keysar, CTC/NDCEE

Presentation PurposePresentation Purpose

• Context & need for regional approaches• Central challenge to such approaches

– Sustainability indicators

• Strategic Sustainability Assessment

Army Strategy for the Army Strategy for the EnvironmentEnvironment

“A sustainable Army simultaneouslymeets mission requirements

worldwide,safeguards human health,

improves quality of life, and enhances the natural environment.”

Resource ConstraintsResource Constraints

Population Growth

Policy

Land Use Change

Population Growth

Policy

Land Use Change

DriversImpacts

Pressures are accelerating

Major TrendsMajor Trends

• Population Growth• Urbanization• Consumption• Industrialization• Changes in Land Use and Land Cover• Globalization

Potential Impacts to Potential Impacts to EnvironmentEnvironment

• Global climate change• Declining ecosystem services• Pollution: air, fresh water, seas, land• Increase in invasive species • Loss of biodiversity• Resource depletion

Potential Impacts Potential Impacts to Communityto Community

• Increased costs for needed goods and services

• Reduced access to basic goods and services

• Economic restructuring• Poor health, disease • Loss of community and family stability• Income disparity, Poverty

Potential Impacts to MissionPotential Impacts to Mission

• Increased costs for needed goods and services

• Restrictions on testing and training • Infrastructure shortfalls• Increasing and changing mission

requirements

How do we know if aHow do we know if a “region” is sustainable? “region” is sustainable?

• Define the “region”• Identify sustainability indicators• Define end-state• Project current trends• Look for gaps

ChallengesChallenges

• Defining Boundaries• Focus on Available Data• Regional Identity• Regional Capabilities for Action• Not just ‘Vital Signs’• Prioritize

Disconnect between the scale of the problems and the ability to analyze trends (or identify interventions, or define stakeholders, or enable action…)

Boundaries rarely align between the problem and the institutions capable of action.

Method for Identifying Method for Identifying Regional IndicatorsRegional Indicators

• Create initial list of topic areas– Use Army references

• Review lists of indicators– Literature and on-line sources

• Create database to capture indicators – Sort by ‘triple bottom line’– Key terms

• Compare database to initial list

Central FloridaCentral Florida

http://www.myregion.org/

Southern California Southern California Association of GovernmentsAssociation of Governments

http://www.scag.ca.gov/publications/index.htm

Cascadia RegionCascadia Region

http://www.sightline.org/research/cascadia_scorecard/

Sierra Nevada Wealth IndexSierra Nevada Wealth Index

http://www.sbcouncil.org/

ResultsResults

Figure 3: Relative Percents for the Triple Bottom LineBy Source

Regional National Local Army

Source

Environmental

Economy/Mission

Community

Proposed

ResultsResults

• National most cited indicator key terms:– Social– Economic

• Regional most cited indicator key terms:– Social– Economic

• Army most cited indicator key terms:– Planning– Training– Procurement

• Local most cited indicator key terms:– Land Use– Transportation

Proposed IndicatorsProposed Indicators

• Land Use – Land conversion rates– Military training and testing capabilities– Effectiveness of land use planning

mechanisms

• Transportation– Roadway congestion, highway accident

statistics– Airport capability, airport congestion– Annual amount of fossil fuel consumed for

transportation per household

• Ecosystem Health– Number of species endangered or at risk– Number of impaired waterways– Water quality index– Acres of protected critical habitat/habitat

fragmentation– Acres of wetlands lost per year– Soil erosion rates/soil productivity rates

• Water Resources – Ratio of surface and/or groundwater supply

to water withdrawal– Ratio of impervious surfaces to land area– Per capita water use– Wastewater treatment – reported effluent

• Air Quality– Air quality index– Major emission sources, toxic substance

releases

• Economic Conditions– DOD contribution to local employment– Percent of income earners earning below the

Living Wage– Employment diversity– Poverty rates– Unemployment rate

• Energy – Use and Availability– Energy consumption per capita– Sources: ratio of renewable to non-

renewable

• Quality of Life– Number of households with a housing problem

(cost burden and availability)– Educational attainment– Health care availability– Commute times– Crime rates– Migration patterns

• Waste Generation– Solid waste disposal per capita– Material recovery rates– Tons of hazardous waste generated

• Are we measuring the right things?Natural Resources = Ecosystem Services

Common Theme: Availability of Common Theme: Availability of Natural ResourcesNatural Resources

“This combination of more goods for more people on the same resource base will prove detrimental to the environment…” (PCSD)

“The need for fertile soil, clean and abundant water, healthy air, diverse wildlife, food, fuel and fiber will intensify…” (PCSD)

“…mission accomplishment today and in the future requires land, water and air resources to train, a healthy environment in which to live, and the support of local communities.” (US Army, 2004).

Ecosystem ServicesEcosystem Services

Provisioning Regulating Cultural SupportingFood (crops, livestock, fisheries, etc.)Fiber (timber, cotton, etc.)Genetic (biochemicals, medicines, etc.)Fresh water

Air qualityClimateWater (flooding, runoff, aquifer recharge)ErosionWater purification Waste treatmentDiseasePestPollinationNatural hazard

Cultural DiversitySpiritual and religious valuesKnowledgeEducational valuesInspirationAesthetic valuesSocial relationsSense of placeCultural HeritageRecreation and ecotourism

Soil formationPrimary production (photosynthesis)Nutrient cyclingWater cycling

(Table drawn from Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005)

Commodities Amenities

Natural Resource ScarcityNatural Resource Scarcity

• Scarcity = economic term for when demand exceeds supply

• Economists find evidence of scarcity when price goes up

• Natural commodity “scarcity” debated• Technological advances and

substitutions moderate price, so “scarcity” not proven

Focus Shifting from Focus Shifting from Commodities to AmenitiesCommodities to Amenities

• “the effects of current economic activity on the basic environmental life support systems seem more critical than the availability of particular natural resource commodities”

– (Krautkraemer, 2005)

National Level IndicatorsNational Level Indicators

• Indicator’s called for but don’t yet exist:– Natural ecosystem services– Condition of plant and animal communities– Fragmentation and landscape pattern

“There is substantial scientific uncertainty about ecosystem services – not about whether they exist or whether they are important to society – but about how to measure them, which ones to track, and the like.” - Heinz Report, p.61

Natural Resource ScarcityNatural Resource Scarcityand PPP Installationsand PPP Installations

Indication of Natural Resource Scarcity?

Installation Land Air Water

Fort Benning Y Y Y

Fort Bliss Y Y Y

Fort Bragg Y Y Y

Fort Campbell Y Y N

Fort Carson N Y Y

Fort Dix Y Y Y

Fort Drum N Y Y

Fort Eustis Y Y Y

Fort Hood Y N N

Fort Lewis Y Y Y

Fort McCoy Y N N

Fort Polk Y N N

Fort Riley N N Y

Fort Sill Y N Y

Fort Stewart Y Y Y

What to measure?What to measure?

• Increasing competition for natural resources impacting all elements of the Army Triple Bottom Line

• Indication of impacts to PPP installations today• Natural resource amenities (ecosystem

services) are essential to continued provision of commodities

• Ecosystem services rarely identified, measured or tracked until they have already become ‘scarce’

What to measure?What to measure?

Natural Ecosystems

(including natural infrastructure,

functional diversity, resiliency and other

characteristics)

Human-Dominated

Ecosystems(including

urban/industrial, agricultural,

intensive forestry, and aquaculture

systems)

Global Ecosystem

Impacts

Ecosystem Services(only some

small percentage

perceived by humans)

Solar Energy

Biogeochemical and Hydrological Flows

Waste Heat

Natural Ecosystems

(including natural infrastructure,

functional diversity, resiliency and other

characteristics)

Human-Dominated

Ecosystems(including

urban/industrial, agricultural,

intensive forestry, and aquaculture

systems)

Global Ecosystem

Impacts

Ecosystem Services(only some

small percentage

perceived by humans)

Solar Energy

Biogeochemical and Hydrological Flows

Waste HeatConstanza and Folke, 1997, p. 59

What is the SSA?What is the SSA?

• Provides Army leadership with analysis of the “state of the future”

• Suggests strategies to close the gap between forecasts and desired futures

• Bridges long-term strategic vision with short-term initiatives to meet objectives

• Establishes dialogue with Army leaders, partners and stakeholders

SSA Operating PrinciplesSSA Operating Principles

• Employ “spiral development” concept• Take a regional perspective• Build on existing data and tools• Leverage, leverage, leverage…

Fall Line Regional PilotFall Line Regional Pilot

• Apply concepts to actual region• Assemble data, apply models• Forecast possible future outcomes• Engage stakeholders

The ConceptThe Concept

Current State

Possible Future Outcomes resulting from actions taken along the way

Preferred Future State

Current-Trend

Sandhills EcoregionFall Line RegionPopulated PlacesFederal LandsInstallationStateCounty

Regional Sustainability Assessment:Regional Sustainability Assessment:Fall Line PilotFall Line Pilot

MethodologyMethodology

Model Alternative Futures• Project expected land use change over 30 years.

Analyze Impacts and Future Outcomes• Project impact on air quality, water quality, and biodiversity using current models• Quantify the projected impacts

Perform Gap Analysis• The objective is to minimize the gap between the predicted and desired future state.

Determine Strategic Interventions• Land Use Policy• Technology Infusion• Codes and Standards• Market Approaches

Determine Key Forces• Land Use Change• Population Growth• Military Transformation• Economic Growth• Climate Change• Energy Source & Availability

Develop Scenarios• BRAC•Climate Change•Demographic Shifts•Economic Loss•Energy Cost Shifts

Define Sustainability Objectives

Describe Present System• Natural Landscape• Land Use• Demography• Transportation/Infrastructure• Economics• Sustainability Vulnerability

Plan Course of Action•Multii-Criteria Analysis of interventions

Regional AnalysisRegional Analysis

Identify Issues and TrendsIdentify Issues and Trends

Historical Land Use Change Analysis

Sustainability Indicator Analysis

… … and Key Forcesand Key Forces

Legend

Installation_Boundary

SandHills_region_counties

2000pop.N3 / <NONE>

Non- existent County

1 - 5,000 persons

5,001 - 15,000 persons

15,001 - 30,000 persons

30,001 - 60,000 persons

60,001 - 100,000 persons

100,000 or more personsFort Benning, GA

Fort Bragg, NC

Fort Gordon, GA

Fort Jackson, SC

Increase in County Population from 1970 to 2000

• Military Mission:– Improve ability to organize, equip, train, & deploy

• Water Quantity and Quality:– Ensure water is plentiful and meets standards

• Housing Affordability and Availability:– Maintain viable stock of available and affordable

housing• Energy:

– Supply reliable, secure, and renewable energy• Air Quality:

– Meet ambient standards year-round• Education:

– School agencies meet required space objectives• Biodiversity:

– Increase biodiversity and species habitat

30-year Regional Objectives30-year Regional Objectives

Develop Scenarios & Model Develop Scenarios & Model Alternative FuturesAlternative Futures

• Forecast expected land use change over 30 years based on factors that influence population growth:– Historic Population Change

• Base and high growth rates• Impact of BRAC plus-ups

– Economics• Impact of population change on economic sectors

– Socio-Economic Dynamics--Three Sub-Regions• Benning/Columbus• Jackson/Columbia• Bragg/Fayetteville

Future ScenariosFuture Scenarios

Forecast expected future in 30 years under different scenarios

Business-as-Usual

Population Shifts/

Military Transformations

Climate Change

Perform Gap AnalysisPerform Gap Analysis

+ 500,000 population+ 200,000 households+ 260 million sq. ft. of

commercial/industrial- 19,000 acres of

agriculture- 34,000 acres of forest

Water Use Gap AnalysisWater Use Gap Analysis

Fort Bragg Sub-region Gap = +250 million gallons per day

Water Consumption for Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and Electrical Uses

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Projected Consumption Rate Consumption Rate Goal

ConclusionsConclusions

• Region must be seen as a functional unit - more than an aggregation of parts

• Sustainability goals change with spatial scale

• Define and involve regional stakeholders• Iterative and on-going process• Make sure we are asking the right

questions

Questions?Questions?

Elizabeth Keysar, CTC/NDCEE

keysare@ctc.com

Karen Baker, Army Environmental Policy InstituteElisabeth Jenicek, USACE Construction Engineering Research Lab

Back up slides

Potential Courses of ActionPotential Courses of Action

• Expand the DOD Natural Infrastructure concept to the regions containing Army installations

• Support national ecosystem indicator development and reporting

• Conduct additional research– Identify important natural amenities – Track current status– Project future needs

Potential Courses of ActionPotential Courses of Action

• Explore land use planning tools– Ecosystem preservation planning– Markets in ecosystem services– Transfer of development rights– Conservation easements

• Support potential federal roles in land-use issues – Coordinating efforts of multiple agencies– Increasing State and local capacity for planning– Providing monetary incentives for conservation

programs

• Engage stakeholders in regions containing Army installations

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