public lecture slide presentation (4.11.2013)
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During Disaster, (Tsunami) Size and Age Matter, but So Do NetworksDaniel P. Aldrich
Purdue University and Tokyo University
Daniel.aldrich@gmail.com and Twitter @DanielPAldrich
Overall Project FrameworkLevel of Analysis
Cases Data Stress on
International Japan, Haiti, India, China
Recent earthquake disasters
Political capacity and state-civil society relations
National Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima, Chiba
Prefectural damage, population shift, business condition
Financial capacity, social capital, damage
City / village/ town
280 coastal villages
Quant (200+ variables with outcome of mortality and survival)
Damage, social capital, politics, demographics
Individual Survivors from six Tohoku villages
Qualitative Narrative of survival and recovery
Theories of Mortality
VariableNumber of
Observations MeanStandard Deviation Min Max
Disaster characteristics
Tsunami height 283 4.08 9.15 0.00 55.60
Demographic factors
Percentage of pop over 65 283 0.27 0.06 0.12 0.55
Population density 283 680.00 1417.20 1.62 9530.00
Social capital factors
Crime rate per capita 283 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.03
Blood donations per capita 283 6.97 11.16 0.04 123.50
Recycling compliance rate 269 18.05 7.18 5.80 58.20
Political factors
LDP party support in 2009 LH election283 0.29 0.45 0.00 1.00
Voter turnout 277 70.69 5.86 60.00 91.00
Merged locality 283 0.09 0.28 0.00 1.00
Environmental factors
Sea wall height 212 1.33 3.20 0.00 15.50
Strong variation in mortality0
5010
015
0D
ensi
ty
0 .02 .04 .06 .08 .1Proportion of population missing or deceased
Some correlation with wave height
HinoemataShowaKatsuraoNishimeyaShichikashukuMishimaSaiKaneyamaKazamauraKawauchiShingo FudaiKitashiobaraImabetsuYomogitaYugawaBandai
Tanohata
SamegawaYanaizu
Noda
YokohamaTadamiNakajimaOhira HironoFurudonoTakkoSumitaIitateTeneiOmaYamatsuriKozakiShimogoKunoheNishiwagaIzumizakiAsakawaHirata
Futaba
SotogahamaTamakawaHigashidoriKuzumakiMutsuzawaNishiaizuShikamaNaraha
OnjukuShibayamaNagaraInakadate
Shinchi
HiraizumiOtamaOsatoKyonanFujisawaChonanGokaFukauraHanawaKawasaki
Onagawa
KunimiKawachiKarumaiRokunoheOtaki IwaizumiOwaniRokkashoOnoSannoheAjigasawaOkuma
Murata IchinomiyaShirakoHiranaiNakadomariKagamiishiKoriZaoIchinoheTsurutaNoheji HashikamiChoseiIwate shiTanaguraMatsushimaTonoshoItayanagi
Otsuchi
MarumoriKawamataInawashiroTomioka
TakoFujisakiKanegasaki
Yamamoto
ShichinoheMihoAizubange
Minamisanriku
ToneWakuyaIshikawaMinamiaizu HironoKujukuriShizukuishiMiharu OaraiYabuki
Yamada
GonoheTohokuNishigoNanbuDaigoShichigahama
Katsuura
Namie
ShisuiShirosatoSakaeAizumisatoYachiyo
Rikuzentakata
Ogawara OiraseYokoshibahikariTaiwaMisatoKamiSakaiYahabaHachimantaiTonoNinoheItako TakahagiKakudaMotomiyaShiwaHirakawa RifuIbaraki
Watari
KamogawaKuroishi KujiTsugaruShiroishi TokaiNamegata
Soma
Shibata
Kamaishi
SosaTamura
Ofunato
Isumi MisawaMinamiboso
Higashimatsushima
KasumigauraIwanuma
TsukubamiraiShimotsumaHitachiomiyaSakuragawaInashiki KitaibarakiTomiyaAmiFuttsuTateyamaOamishirasatoHokotaTomisatoOmitamaKitakataYukiTakizawaNaka SanmuBandoHitachiotaShiogamaGoshogawara
Miyako
NihonmatsuShiroiSodegauraMutsuToganeMoriyaTagajo
ShirakawaJosoDate KashimaTowada AsahiChoshi
MinamisomaNatori
Yachimata
Kesennuma
KuriharaSukagawaKasamaIshiokaRyugasakiUshikuKatoriTomeYotsukaidoInzaiKimitsuMobaraKitakami KamisuHanamakiKamagayaChikuseiTorideIchinosekiMidoriOshuAizuwakamatsuNaritaKisarazu WakabayashiAbikoOsakiKogaTsuchiuraMihamaWakabaNoda HitachinakaInage
Ishinomaki
NagareyamaNarashinoUrayasuSakuraHanamigawaHirosakiYachiyo MiyaginoHitachiChuoIzumiTsukubaTaihaku HachinoheMitoIchiharaAobaFukushima shiMoriokaAomori shiKoriyama IwakiKashiwaIchikawaMatsudoFunabashi Chiba shiSendai Ibaraki0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.1
Pe
rcen
tage
Mis
sing
/ D
ead
0 20 40 60Maximum tsunami height
Predicted mortality ceteris paribus
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4M
ort
alit
y
0 10 20 30 40 50Tsunami Height
Age matters-.
01-.
005
0.0
05.0
1.0
15M
orta
lity
0 20 40 60Proportion of Population 65 and over
Proxy for social capital matters -.
002
0.0
02.0
04.0
06M
orta
lity
0 5 10 15Pre-Tsunami Proportional Crime Rate
Why might social capital matter?
ConclusionsStandard theories on mortality supported (weight height, age)
No evidence that political factors played a role
Social networks evidently important for survival
Look next to combine qualitative and quantitative data to fill in gaps
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