During Disaster, (Tsunami) Size and Age Matter, but So Do NetworksDaniel P. Aldrich

Purdue University and Tokyo University

Daniel.aldrich@gmail.com and Twitter @DanielPAldrich

Overall Project FrameworkLevel of Analysis

Cases Data Stress on

International Japan, Haiti, India, China

Recent earthquake disasters

Political capacity and state-civil society relations

National Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, Fukushima, Chiba

Prefectural damage, population shift, business condition

Financial capacity, social capital, damage

City / village/ town

280 coastal villages

Quant (200+ variables with outcome of mortality and survival)

Damage, social capital, politics, demographics

Individual Survivors from six Tohoku villages

Qualitative Narrative of survival and recovery

Theories of Mortality

VariableNumber of

Observations MeanStandard Deviation Min Max

Disaster characteristics          

Tsunami height 283 4.08 9.15 0.00 55.60

Demographic factors          

Percentage of pop over 65 283 0.27 0.06 0.12 0.55

Population density 283 680.00 1417.20 1.62 9530.00

Social capital factors          

Crime rate per capita 283 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.03

Blood donations per capita 283 6.97 11.16 0.04 123.50

Recycling compliance rate 269 18.05 7.18 5.80 58.20

Political factors          

LDP party support in 2009 LH election283 0.29 0.45 0.00 1.00

Voter turnout 277 70.69 5.86 60.00 91.00

Merged locality 283 0.09 0.28 0.00 1.00

Environmental factors          

Sea wall height 212 1.33 3.20 0.00 15.50

Strong variation in mortality0

5010

015

0D

ensi

ty

0 .02 .04 .06 .08 .1Proportion of population missing or deceased

Some correlation with wave height

HinoemataShowaKatsuraoNishimeyaShichikashukuMishimaSaiKaneyamaKazamauraKawauchiShingo FudaiKitashiobaraImabetsuYomogitaYugawaBandai

Tanohata

SamegawaYanaizu

Noda

YokohamaTadamiNakajimaOhira HironoFurudonoTakkoSumitaIitateTeneiOmaYamatsuriKozakiShimogoKunoheNishiwagaIzumizakiAsakawaHirata

Futaba

SotogahamaTamakawaHigashidoriKuzumakiMutsuzawaNishiaizuShikamaNaraha

OnjukuShibayamaNagaraInakadate

Shinchi

HiraizumiOtamaOsatoKyonanFujisawaChonanGokaFukauraHanawaKawasaki

Onagawa

KunimiKawachiKarumaiRokunoheOtaki IwaizumiOwaniRokkashoOnoSannoheAjigasawaOkuma

Murata IchinomiyaShirakoHiranaiNakadomariKagamiishiKoriZaoIchinoheTsurutaNoheji HashikamiChoseiIwate shiTanaguraMatsushimaTonoshoItayanagi

Otsuchi

MarumoriKawamataInawashiroTomioka

TakoFujisakiKanegasaki

Yamamoto

ShichinoheMihoAizubange

Minamisanriku

ToneWakuyaIshikawaMinamiaizu HironoKujukuriShizukuishiMiharu OaraiYabuki

Yamada

GonoheTohokuNishigoNanbuDaigoShichigahama

Katsuura

Namie

ShisuiShirosatoSakaeAizumisatoYachiyo

Rikuzentakata

Ogawara OiraseYokoshibahikariTaiwaMisatoKamiSakaiYahabaHachimantaiTonoNinoheItako TakahagiKakudaMotomiyaShiwaHirakawa RifuIbaraki

Watari

KamogawaKuroishi KujiTsugaruShiroishi TokaiNamegata

Soma

Shibata

Kamaishi

SosaTamura

Ofunato

Isumi MisawaMinamiboso

Higashimatsushima

KasumigauraIwanuma

TsukubamiraiShimotsumaHitachiomiyaSakuragawaInashiki KitaibarakiTomiyaAmiFuttsuTateyamaOamishirasatoHokotaTomisatoOmitamaKitakataYukiTakizawaNaka SanmuBandoHitachiotaShiogamaGoshogawara

Miyako

NihonmatsuShiroiSodegauraMutsuToganeMoriyaTagajo

ShirakawaJosoDate KashimaTowada AsahiChoshi

MinamisomaNatori

Yachimata

Kesennuma

KuriharaSukagawaKasamaIshiokaRyugasakiUshikuKatoriTomeYotsukaidoInzaiKimitsuMobaraKitakami KamisuHanamakiKamagayaChikuseiTorideIchinosekiMidoriOshuAizuwakamatsuNaritaKisarazu WakabayashiAbikoOsakiKogaTsuchiuraMihamaWakabaNoda HitachinakaInage

Ishinomaki

NagareyamaNarashinoUrayasuSakuraHanamigawaHirosakiYachiyo MiyaginoHitachiChuoIzumiTsukubaTaihaku HachinoheMitoIchiharaAobaFukushima shiMoriokaAomori shiKoriyama IwakiKashiwaIchikawaMatsudoFunabashi Chiba shiSendai Ibaraki0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.1

Pe

rcen

tage

Mis

sing

/ D

ead

0 20 40 60Maximum tsunami height

Predicted mortality ceteris paribus

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4M

ort

alit

y

0 10 20 30 40 50Tsunami Height

Age matters-.

01-.

005

0.0

05.0

1.0

15M

orta

lity

0 20 40 60Proportion of Population 65 and over

Proxy for social capital matters -.

002

0.0

02.0

04.0

06M

orta

lity

0 5 10 15Pre-Tsunami Proportional Crime Rate

Why might social capital matter?

ConclusionsStandard theories on mortality supported (weight height, age)

No evidence that political factors played a role

Social networks evidently important for survival

Look next to combine qualitative and quantitative data to fill in gaps