project cost, schedule, risk and contingency

August 2 and 3, 2010

Project Cost, Schedule, Risk and Contingency

Jay Elias

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• References:– KOSMOS Management document– KOSMOS Project Plan & Budget Narrative– KOSMOS Risks document– KOSMOS WBS– KOSMOS Schedule

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Outline

• Review current budget status• Discuss construction budget, schedule

and related items

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Current Status

• OSU design contract started Dec. 1, 2009

• NOAO had 3 main budget components– Initial preparatory phase (Aug until Dec. 1,

2009)– Design phase science activities (non-

ReSTAR)– Design phase ReSTAR effort

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Current Status

• OSU will have largely spent funds by end of this month (Aug), as planned ($241K)– Final invoice after completion of design

review

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Current Status

• NOAO expenditures recorded through June 30:– Initial preparatory phase spent $40K– Design phase science activities spent $4K

out of $31K budget – Design phase ReSTAR effort spent $46K of

$145K budget– Expenditures in July/Aug will be substantial

(but not $100K)

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Current Status

• Why did NOAO over-estimate expenditures?– Science effort low because project scientist

position became vacant, individuals “helping out” generally did not charge

– Over-estimated required commitment for project management generally

– Guess is that final expenditures will be somewhat over 50% of budget• This experience is folded into estimates that follow

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KOSMOS Construction Budget & Schedule

• Process:– OSU built up a master plan based on remaining

design effort and experience with OSMOS I&T– NOAO did a more detailed estimate (given lack

of experience with OSMOS) and verified schedule was consistent with OSU plan

– Both effectively a bottom-up estimate starting at level 2 or 3 of WBS• Won’t discuss details unless requested, see

references

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KOSMOS Construction Budget & Schedule

• Process:– OSU contingency estimated for major

procurement categories and for manpower at relevant parts of schedule (hence, both budget and schedule contingency)

– NOAO used “risk factor” approach (cf. ALMA, TMT, etc.) at the task level, roll up into pool. Associated schedule contingency consistent with OSU plan

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Budget Summary

Institution OSU NOAO (ReStar)

NOAO (Base)

BaselinePayroll $208,966 $591,167 $51,445Non-Payroll $281,307 $234,094 $2,520Baseline F&A $124,932ContingencyContingency $73,100 $129,611 $7,144Contingency F&A

$9,584

Sub-Total$697,889

$954,872 $61,109Total $1,015,980Cont./Baseline 13.4% 15.6%

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Contingency

• Rolled up at the institutional level– Easier to manage than if done at project

level– Overall just under 15% of baseline costs –

plausible given nature of project– We expect to spend it – properly

estimated, that’s what it’s for

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Budget Summary by WBS

• Some remarks:– Because of granular budgeting at OSU

(and standard university policies for faculty salaries), OSU costs concentrated in a few elements

– Some WBS elements are more separate than others – e.g., 6 & 10 linked

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Budget Summary by WBSWBS OSU NOAO Total1: Project Management $53,162 $118,125 $171,287

2: Science Team Activities $43,079 $53,965 $97,044

3: Systems Engineering $0 $57,972. $57,972

4: Optics $271,559 $1,646 $273,2055: Spectrograph Mechanical $104,363 $95,888 $200,251

6: Spectrograph Controls and Telemetry

$61,604 $0 $61,604

7: Facility Modifications $0 $6,173 $6,173

8: Detector System $0 $259,030 $259,0309: Top-Level Software $0 $127,425 $127,425

10: Integration and Test $75,340 $90,965 $166,305

11: Shipping $6,100 $0 $6,10012: Documentation and Training

$0 $39,838 $39,838

13: Slit Mask Fabrication $0 $18,200 $18,200

Contingency $82,685 $146,755 $220,300Total $697,889 $1,015,980 $1,713,869

Table 5.2 –Project Cost by WBS Element

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Total Cost

• Including construction phase budget and anticipated expenditures for design phase, total instrument cost will be just under $2.1M

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Schedule

• Detailed schedule available on-line (on-wall)– Most major tasks flow independently into

I&T phase– Mechanical design and fab is the main

exception– Interaction between spectrograph control

software and top-level software

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Schedule

• Schedule looked at NOAO labor loading– Mechanical fabrication and software efforts

near 100% but not over for a few months• Need to coordinate with ODI

– Other tasks under 100% loading for people involved

• OSU schedule is built up using available staff at 100% when needed

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Mechanical Design & Fab

• Example of flow of work for enclosure– Instrument electronics box drawings available early

and needed early; fabrication occurs Sept/Oct– Main enclosure drawings need redesign but

enclosure not needed until end of March ‘11 (misc parts needed later); design and fab phased accordingly

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Flow of I&T through Acceptance

Note arrival of enclosure end of March, optics end of May

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Significant RisksRisk ID Risk Name Probability Severity Summary Description Mitigations and Reductions

3.1 ICD Status Moderate Moderate ICDs not complete at design review

ICDs almost entirely between sub-systems with existing designs; critical software ICDs most nearly complete

4.1 Optics Performance-1

Moderate Moderate Melt variance will affect UV performance

Measurement of melt indices; re-optimization of design

4.2 Optics Performance-2

Moderate Moderate Coating performance may reduce throughput

Iteration with vendors; production of test or witness samples

4.3 Optics Cost/Schedule

High Low Camera design more complex than OSMOS

Only 1 asphere; aspheres moderate

4.4 ADC vignetting

High Low Mayall ADC undersized Work near zenith or at parallactic angle for full MOS field

5.1 Instrument Flexure

High Low Instrument flexure complicates night-time calibration

Purchase stiffer focus stages; undo some OSMOS light-weighting to produce stiffer overall structure; examine

7.1 Calibration Field

High Low Rotator/Guider Calibration field undersized

Day-time use of "white spot", night sky lines; flexure reduction

9.1 Software complexity

Moderate Moderate Software interactions among multiple sub-systems from both NOAO & OSU

Ensure critical ICDs fully developed; nearly all software exists already

13.1 MOS mask production

Low High MOS mask software provided by 3rd parties

Not on critical path for commissioning; assessment point in Jan.

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Lesser Risks

Project managementCost and scheduleMissing official NOAO project scientistPerformance modelingDetector and controller systemsIntegration and testDocumentation and training