presentation tedx final

Biomass based bio-energy Biomass based bio-energy program in Madagascarprogram in Madagascar

Mainstreaming bio ethanol energy generation into environment and other sectors

Bienvenu RAJAONSON

Senior Environmental Specialist

WORLD BANKNovember 27 , 2010

Presentation overviewPresentation overview

Background Key concept of the project

◦ Links to poverty and natural resources Overall constraints Institutional framework Key baselines Biomass program (ethanol)

◦ Components◦ Value chain analysis

Where we stand? Per component Projections, environmental and poverty reduction

expected impacts Conclusions

BackgroundBackground

Madagascar is one of the poorest countries worldwide,

Madagascar is one of the Hotspot countries in terms of biodiversity

Madagascar is one of the most exposed countries worldwide in terms of natural disaster

These issues pose problems for economic stability.

We started this bio ethanol program in 2001

The key concept which drives the projectLinks to poverty and natural resources use

Poverty rate

NR Exploitation

How to reverse the trend for the benefit of How to reverse the trend for the benefit of the growth?the growth?

The following three models are appropriate

Model 1: development for conservationModel 2: Conservation for developmentModel 3: Merging the two

BECAUSEPrevention measures are more important than cure approach

Overall constraintsOverall constraintsSpeed of degradation, Cost of recovery, Time to substitute the expected

loss is challenging as change of social patterns has to be considered and takes time,

Institutional framework often doesn’t exist and

Scale up is a big challenge

Institutional frameworkInstitutional framework

• Sectoral Policies exist• Administration capacity weak • Coordination among project not

enough • Decentralization of NR

management is not fully effective • Legislation exist but law

enforcement is lacking• Natural resources governance

weak

Some Key baselinesSome Key baselines

Vulnerability of coral reefs

Sources : BD500/FTMEdition : UCDD / DIE / ONE - Février 2005

CARTE DES RECIFS

Récifs

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

TOLIARA

MAHAJANGA

TOAMASINA

ANTSIRANANA

FIANARANTSOA

ANTANANARIVO

N

EW

S

Limite de la Province#Y Chef Lieu de Faritany

100 0 100 Kilomètres

•Over 2000 km reefs for 5,000 km coasts

•Pressures: anthropic activity ( fishery; taking materials; sedimentation );

•Absence of functional cartography

•A monitoring program for reefs is in place ( regional context)

I. Context

Vulnerability of mangrove areasCARTE DES MANGROVES

Source : BD500/FTM - IEFN/DGEF 1996Edition : UCDD / DIE / ONE - Février 2005

Mangroves

100 0 100 Kilometers

LEGENDE

N

EW

S

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

TOLIARA

MAHAJANGA

TOAMASINA

ANTSIRANANA

FIANARANTSOA

ANTANANARIVO

Limite de la Province#Y Chef lieu de Faritany

I. Context

•Current total area :

404,000 ha ( CI. 2001)

•Degradation is 6% per year

•Pressures are due to wood exploitation and to concentrated activities : salt production; aquaculture; tourism…

Vegetation fire MAP

Edition: UCDD/DIE/ONE, Novembre 2004Source: DGEF, BD 500 FTM, USGS, PACT Madagascar, Novembre 2004

COEFFICIENT D'ACTIVITES DE FEUX DE NUIT MADAGASCAR 2003

CAFN 2003FaibleMoyenImportant

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y#Y

#Y

#Y#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

Antsiranana

Mahajanga

Antsohihy

Sambava

Maevatanana

MaintiranoAmbatondrazaka

Fenoarivo Atsinanana

Toamasina

Morondava

TsiroanomandidyMiarinarivo

Antananarivo

Ihosy

Fianarantsoa

Ambovombe

Tolagnaro (Fort-Dauphin)

Toliara

Farafangana

Manakara

Ambositra

Antsirabe

100 0 100 200 Kilometres

N

EW

S

Limite des régions#Y Chef lieu de région

The country is devastated by fires, at least one third per year ( 1/3);

Vulnerability of soilsVulnerability of soils::

--70% of territory is made up of relief -200 T/ha/year is the average erosion rate- Degradation costs about US$ 150 to 300 million (WB review 1988 ).).

I. Context

Socioeconomic Vulnerability

74 - 10054 - 7335 - 5317 - 340 - 16

Indice de pauvreté

Edition: UCDD/DIE/ONE, Mars 2005Source: Enquête Ilo 2001, BD 500 FTM,

INDICE DE PAUVRETE MADAGASCAR 2001

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y#Y

#Y

#Y#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

#Y

Antsiranana

Mahajanga

Antsohihy

Sambava

Maevatanana

MaintiranoAmbatondrazaka

Fenoarivo Atsinanana

Toamasina

Morondava

TsiroanomandidyMiarinarivo

Antananarivo

Ihosy

Fianarantsoa

Ambovombe

Tolagnaro (Fort-Dauphin)

Toliara

Farafangana

Manakara

Ambositra

Antsirabe

N

EW

S

100 0 100 200 Kilometres

Limite des régions#Y Chef lieu de région

•Poverty affects 74% of population with a daily income of $ 0,42 ( 2001)

•MAP objective is to reduce poverty rate by 50% in 2015

•CAS recommends promoting policies favorable to income increase among poor people in the concentration sector, which will also express in GDP increase ( Pro-poor Policy )

Modelling Climate Change Impacts in Volta Basin 25Modelling Climate Change Impacts in Volta Basin 25thth April, 2007 April, 2007Direction Générale de la Météorologie

Tendance des Températures MAX à Madagascar

26,5

27,0

27,5

28,0

28,5

29,0

29,5

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

Année

Te

mp

éra

ture

s (°

C)

Temperature increases to 0.5 degree in 22 meteorological stations out of 27 over 40 years

Climate ChangeClimate Change

Energy Source: 80% from woodEnergy Source: 80% from wood

Fuel wood

Other sources

Energy Consumption: 95% of population Energy Consumption: 95% of population use wood as cooking fueluse wood as cooking fuel

Fuel wood or mixed

Gas-electricity

Proposed solution: substitution of Proposed solution: substitution of biomass source with sugar cane biomass source with sugar cane

Existing plantation, related to cultural tradition

Easy to grow, fast growing and alcohol processing is existing nationwide

Space to grow exist and forest areas to conserve are critical

Resistant to cyclone

Sugar cane commodities chartSugar cane commodities chart

It is a market based program with:◦1 million ha plantation to be developed

with landscape consideration◦1 billion liters p.a. of cooking ethanol◦Plus carbon offset market ◦And biomass waste conversion

activities

Bio ethanol program

Household cooking fuel/ stove

Fuel ethanolGeneration of electricity from

biomass

S&M éthanol processing plant unit : $20- $5,000

Industrial Unit

Sugar cane juice

Any local alcohol processed

Bagasse

Molasses from processingRough sugar cane

Large scale sugar cane plantation

Ethanol cooking stove modelsEthanol cooking stove models

Three models of ethanol cooking stoves have been tested and potentially available for manufacturing and promotion to local consumers

These models are innovative as using a range of ethanol going from 50% to 90% of alcohol

Where we stand? Per Where we stand? Per componentcomponent

Component 1: Clean cooking fuel aiming at reducing the use of fuel wood and kerosene: studies and testing are completed and implementation of the programme has started such as manufacturing of stoves and setting up of micro distilleries.

Component 2: reducing the use of fossil gasoline: the first ethanol plant has started its construction

Component 3: contributing to electricity generation from biomass: new technologies and implementation plan have been completed

Expected Expected Impact on Forest Impact on Forest management management

Illegal logging

Number of stoves

With respect to greenhouse gas emissions over a period of 15 years the ethanol program will allow to avoid greenhouse gas emissions of 7.5 million tons CO2 equivalent which is more than US$ 27.5 millions based on a market price of US$ 3.5/t of CO2. (WB study 2010 for 240 000 households)

Expected Expected Impact on Protected AreaImpact on Protected Area

0102030405060708090

Case without ethanol stove

Projected case with ethanol

stove

case 1

case 2

Pressure rate

Number of stoves

If 10% of the urban households are using ethanol stoves this would allow substituting a total natural forest area of about 187,424 Ha (over a period of 15 years). (WB study 2010 for 240 000 households)

Expected Expected Impact onImpact onbiomass energy savingbiomass energy saving

0102030405060708090

Case without ethanol stove

Projected case with ethanol

stove

case 1

case 2

Use of fuel wood

Number of stoves

If 10% of the urban households are using ethanol stoves this would allow substituting a total charcoal consumption of about 892,139 tons (over a period of 15 years).(WB study 2010 for 240 000 households)

Impact on household healthImpact on household health

People affected by pulmonary infection

Number of stoves

The development of an ethanol program on 10% of the urban households using ethanol stoves will avoid costs of reduced working capacity and savings on health expenses for about 12 million US$, whereas the introduction of improved charcoal stoves will save approximately 9 million US$.(WB study 2010 for 240 000 households)

Impact on job creationImpact on job creation

Number of stoves

Number of job created

It is expected that the entire value chain will create more than 3 millions jobs within 4 years of implementation mostly in rural area.(WB study 2005)

Impact on new state fiscal itemImpact on new state fiscal item

Number of stoves

Rate of fiscal collection

The State at different level will benefit from this initiative for about 10% of fiscal revenue within the entire value chain .

Scale up approach to poverty reductionScale up approach to poverty reductionSome activities generated by the

entire value chain: Raw material cultivation? Processing ethanol? Packing finished product? Collecting ? Transporting? Whole selling? Retailing activities to consumers? Supply of equipment and various materials?... Set up engineering

Simulation impact by 2015 (MDG)

Poverty reduction simulation WB/Min of Poverty reduction simulation WB/Min of Economy and PlanningEconomy and Planning

(WB toolkit database reference 2008) (WB toolkit database reference 2008)

Base case without the project 2014 Poverty rate is reduced from 70% to 62%

•With the project 2015 MDGPoverty rate is reduced from 70% to 40%

ConclusionsConclusions

Important investment is not necessarily required to reverse the degradation trend of natural resources

Full participation of the majority of the population in poverty reduction activities would significantly slow down pressure on PAs and common public goods.

Scaling up such activities impacts on wealth creation and thus economical growth and would contribute to reach MDG’s goals for the country.

Thank you