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DISCLAIMER
THIS PRESENTATION IS ALREADY OUT OF DATE
DISCLAIMER
WHAT SHAPES MEDIA LANDSCAPE…AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTENT IS KING
CONTENT IS KINGBUT EASE OF USE IS QUEEN
Apple is worth over $500BOr more than: - Walt Disney - News Corp - Time Warner - CBS - ViacomCombined
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Nielsen Digital Consumer Report Q4 ‘11
Source: TUAW.com Sept 24, ‘10 “What 10 Years Apple Did to its Main Product”
Wireless
Cheaper Data Storage
Fiber Optics
Broadband
Satellite
Linux
Open Source
Processor Speed
GPS
TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES
Touchscreen
HDTV
WIFI
Flash Memory
Cloud Computing
WHAT’S KILLING ‘MUST SEE TV’?
Broadcasters:Transmitted free to the viewer over the airPredominately advertising driven for revenue
KEY TERMINOLOGY:
Premium Cable:Delivered as above, 100% driven by
subscription fees to the viewer.
ex :
ex :
Ad Supported Cable:Delivered through an in-home connection via a subscription model for the viewer.Also advertising driven, however also receive retransmission fees from the subscription model.
KEY TERMINOLOGY:
Cable MSO Satellite Telecom
These are the different in-home delivery methods for subscription television.
As of the end of 2011, 90% of US Households subscribe to one of these: - 56% Cable - 36% Satellite - 8% Telecom
KEY TERMINOLOGY:
ex : ex : ex :
Source: Parks Associates Whitepaper 2011 “Digitalsmiths”
THE EVOLUTION OF VIEWING
SHARE OF PRIMETIME VIEWING
Source: Nielsen data
#1 show on TV, 35MM viewers / 22.0 HH rtg1 in 3 TV’s tuned in at that time were watching SeinfeldLast season on air
#2 - 30MM viewers / 20.7 HH rtg
#3 - 24MM viewers / 16.8 HH rtgOff air w/in 2 years
#4 - 24MM viewers / 16.4.0 HH rtg
#12 - 35MM viewers / 11.7 HH rtg
NBC ‘MUST SEE THURSDAY’ LINEUP ‘97-’98
8
8:30
9
9:30
10
Debuts Jan ’99 3.5MM viewers and averages that for 1st season
Season 1 finale draws 5.2MM viewers
Season 2 opens Jan ‘00 to 7.6MM viewers
Source: Nielsen
By the time the Sopranos goes off air:
Averaging 9-11MM viewers
At its height popularity, ‘02 drew 13.4MM for the season premiere and is almost outdrawing NBC on Sunday nights
Series finale was watched by 11.9MMSource: Nielsen
By the time the Sopranos goes off air:
21 Emmy wins including : - 2 Best Drama - 6 for Best Lead Actor/Actress
111 Nominations Overall
2 Peabody Awards
2007 PRIMETIME EMMYS
CABLE POST SOPRANOS
Source: Paidcontent.org Apr 26, ’12
Debuts Jan 10, 1999 on HBO
Debuts at the Consumer Electronics Show in ‘99
Releases June ‘99
Source: Parks Associates Whitepaper 2011 “Digitalsmiths”
THE EVOLUTION OF VIEWING
Since Nielsen started measuring DVR use in 2007, usage has doubled.
And for those under 55 years old spend 9 hours a month watching time shifted / recorded TV
DVR USE
DVR PLAYBACK BY HOUR
Source: Nielsen DVR State of Media Jan ’11 for P1849, % of total DVR playback
Source: Nielsen DVR State of Media Jan ’11
ONLINE TRAFFIC BY HOUR
Source: Sandvine Over the Top Video From a Cable Perspective 2012 report
XBOX USE BY HOUR
Source: Nielsen “Who, When and How? A Closer Look at Video Game Measurement” Apr 21, ’10
Live A18-49 Rating
2.6
Live + & 7 dayA18-49 Rating
3.9
% Increase
50%
2.7 3.8 41%
1.2 2.3 92%
THE DVR EFFECT
Source: TV By the Numbers Apr 16, 2012 using Nielsen data
3.88
3.323.41
2.61
3.26
1.551.311.29
1.071.37
2.302.422.62
3.262.98
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2005 / 06 2006 / 07 2007/ 08 2008 / 09 2009 / 10
Year
Average P2+ Rating
Network Sports Cable Sports Broadcast Prime
LIVE SPORTS DVR PROOF
LEGACY OF NAPSTER
Launches June ’99
’00, sued by Metallica
Feb ‘01 hits peak 26.4MM users
July ‘01 loses appeal in lawsuit by RIAA
Declares bankruptcy 2002
File sharing peer-to-peer network that specialized in music
Source: Salon.com Apr 29, ‘03
Est Feb ‘05
Mar ‘08
‘06-’07
Jan ‘08‘07
Nov ‘08
Feb ‘11
Oct ‘05
Feb ‘10
Network Controlled
Content Agreements
‘06-’07
July ’07
Avg video view length 2.7 minutes
9 billion online video views by 134MM viewers
January ‘12
Avg video view length 6.1 minutes
40 billion online video views by 181MM viewers
ONLINE VIEWERSHIP TRENDING UP
Source: Comscore
Source: PaidContent.org “Amazon: Bring us your kids’ and comedy shows, get $55,000” May 2, ‘12
"Change is coming. I think we are at the dawn of a strong new presence of web-based programming.”
"It is in 2012 what premium cable was in 1984, in terms of moving in the way of Emmy recognition and prominence.“
-- John Leverence, senior vice president of awards for the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences
Source: TheWrap.com “The Emmys Grapple With a New Question: TV or Not TV” April ’12
Web 2.0
Term used to define the current internet we live in now, 2nd generation from static HTML pages to more dynamic web that is better organized and based on serving web applications to users. Other improved functionality includes open communication with an emphasis on Web-based communities of users
Google Versus FacebookThe Fight Over the Shift to a More Social Web
Source: Fortune “Facebook vs. Google: The battle for the future of the Web” Nov 29, ‘11
Share of Revenue:
41%
10%
5%
ONLINE ADVERTISING REVENUE
Source: 1.2012 IAB Internet Revenue Report2. Emarketer “Google Edges Closer to Facebook as US Display Advertising Becomes Two-Horse Race” Feb 22, ‘12
A more organized world centered around search with Google in
the middle
“Keyword advertising has been so successful because it's useful to users, advertisers and publishers — everyone's interests are aligned.”
“At Google, we believe that ads are a valuable source of information — one that can connect people to the advertisers offering products, services and ideas that interest them. By making ads more relevant, and improving the connection between advertisers and our users, we can create more value for everyone. Users get more useful ads, and these more relevant ads generate higher returns for advertisers and publishers.”
GOOGLE’S MISSION - ADVERTISING
Source: Google blog “Making ads more interesting” Mar 11, ‘09
A more open and connected world,
centered around the social graph with
Facebook in the middle
Source: “User Insights” by Paul Adams
Source: “User Insights” by Paul Adams
Source: Mashable “Why 2011 Will Be Defined by Social Media Democracy” Dec 1, ‘11
“Google had a built in disadvantage in social networking sweepstakes. It was happy to gather information about the intricate web of personal and professional connections known as the ‘social graph’ and integrate that data as signals in its search engine. But the basic premise of social networking –that personal recommendation from a friend was more valuable than all of human wisdom, as represented by Google search – was viewed with horror at Google. Page and Brin had started Google on the premise that the algorithm would provide the only answer”
Source: “In the Plex” by Steve Levy
Source: The Guardian “Web Freedom Faces Greatest Threat Ever, warns Google’s Sergey Brin” April 15, ‘12
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES OF THE SOCIAL WEB
48% of online brand mentions involve media or marketing materials
33% of these from TV
HEIGHTEN IMPACT OF OTHER MEDIA
Source: WARC “Brand Mentioned 3Bn times a Day in US” June ‘11
CO-VIEWING MOMENTS MORE IMPORTANT
Source: Forbes “Super Bowl XLVI Social Media Audience Delivers 64 Million Impressions” Feb 21, ‘12
CO-VIEWING MOMENTS MORE IMPORTANT
Source: Twitter
EXPAND STORYTELLING
ANOTHER PLACE TO EXPERIENCE A BRAND
DRAW INSIGHTS FROM JUST ‘LISTENING’
FEEL MORE CONNECTED TO BRANDS / STARS
425MM monthly visitors un-monetized by
ad revenue
Source: Mashable Apr 9, ’12
1st Iphone release 2007
1st phone to feature multi-touch interface
#2 in marketshare behind RIM (Blackberry) by 2008
#2 in smartphone marketshare behind Android with 1/3 market
#1 in tablet marketshare
59% of smartphone sales Q1 ‘12
Ipod debuts Nov ‘01 Source: Canalys Report “Smart mobile device shipments hit 118 million in 2007, up 53% on 2006” Feb 5, ’08Source: Techcrunch “The Decline Of Android Foretells The Rise Of A Total Apple Monopoly” Apr 26, ’12
U.S. SMARTPHONE PENETRATION
Source: Nielsen blog “Smartphones Account for Half of all Mobile Phones, Dominate New Phone Purchases in the US” Mar 29, ’12
App [ap] Definition: application, typically a small specialized program downloaded to a mobile phone
Source: Information Week Oct 19, ‘11
Source: Nielsen State of Mobile report Q3 ’11
80% of branded apps have been downloaded less than 1K times
Less than 1% have hit 1MM or more downloads
Source: The Guardian “Most branded apps are a flop says Deloitte. But why?” July 11, ’11
MOBILE PAYMENTS
BRANDED UTILITY
PHYGITAL
104SEARCH PUBLISHERS MOBILE NETWORKS DSPS + EXCHANGES SOCIAL SMS & BEYONDPHYGITAL
GEO-FENCING
Millenials switch their attention between media platforms 27x per hour
In a survey, 70% were willing to give up alcohol for a week versus their smartphone; 33% were willing to give up sex
HOW WE LOVE OUR PHONES
Source: Inmobi “5 Ways Mobile Devices Have Changed the Way Americans Consume Media”Source: Time Inc 2012 study “A Biometric Day in the Life” Source: Telenav survey Aug, ’11
Average mobile user consumes 9 hours of media daily, their mobile device = 26% of this time
HOW WE LOVE OUR PHONES
Source: Comscore 2012 US Digital FutureSource: Nielsen state of mobile Q3 ‘11 report
Source: Sandivine report “Global Internet Phenomena” 2012
Source: Nielsen Q4 ‘11 Report
More than 1/3 of mobile (Google) searches have local intent
“I get really geeked out when I think what would it mean if someone is moving faster than 3MPH relative to someone moving slower…”—Jason Spero, Google Head of Mobile Sales and Strategy
Source: Adweek Feb 13, ‘12 “The Mobile Issue: Jason Spiro: Mobile Evangelist interview”
HIGHLY LOCALIZED
Can the App transform Television The Way it Has Mobile?
Source: Leichtman Research Group Apr, ’12
"I’d like to create an integrated television set that is completely easy to use," Jobs told his biographer, Walter Isaacson. "It would be seamlessly synced with all of your devices and with iCloud ... It will have the simplest user interface you could imagine. I finally cracked it.”
Source: “Steve Jobs’ By Walter Isaacson
CUTTING THE CORD
THE GATEKEEPERS
40% Revenue from Advertising
60% Revenue from Re-transmission fees
$86 on average versus $45 for broadband*
*Averages
MSOs / NETWORKS
BANDWIDTH THROTTLING
BANDWIDTH THROTTLING
Source: PC World “AT&T Wireless Bandwidth Throttling: The Backlash Has Begun” Feb 14, ‘12
Half Hour of Reality TV$100-$500K
One hour of scripted drama$1MM-2MM
ORIGINAL CONTENT IS EXPENSIVE
Source: http://www.eonline.com/news/ask_the_answer_bitch/which_costs_more_reality_tv_scripted/70141
CORD CUTTING EFFECT – SMALL BUT GROWING
OUR TV ADDICTION
Source: Nielsen Digital Consumer Q4 ’11 report
CONTENT IS KINGBUT EASE OF USE IS QUEEN
EPILOGUE
IN US 65% OF TRAFFIC FROM REAL-TIME
US RANKS #16 – AVG CONNECTION SPEED
Source: Akami State of the Internet Q2 ‘11 report
DEBATE NET NEUTRALITY
INNOVATIVE STORYTELLING
MOVE FROM PC TO MOBILE ERA
Source: BusinessInsider “The Future of Mobile” Mar 22, ‘12
EVOLUTION FROM APPS
PRIVACY
EVOLUTION OF AD SPEND
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