possible scenarios on the future of the panatag island (spratly) using jim dator's four...

Possible Scenarios on the Future of the Panatag Island (Spratly) using Jim Dator’s Four Archetypes of Alternative FuturesCenter for Engaged Foresight; Vedasto J. Samonte School of Graduate Studies,Northwestern University, Philippines

Content of Presentation

• Panatag Island Dispute: What’s in a name? What lies beneath? What are their claims? The Controversies?

• Dator’s Four Future Archetypes• Panatag Shoal’s Alternative

Futures • Conclusion

What’s in a name? Philippines – Panatag IslandChina – Nansha Island Taiwan – Minzhu JiaoVietnam – Hoang Sa / Troung SaMalaysia – Tereumbo Layang Layang Brunei – Spratly Island (Louissa Reef)

The Panatag Island / West Philippine Sea

What Lies Beneath?

SEABORNE LIFELINE FOR CONTINUED ECONOMIC GROWTH

Seaborne Lifeline for CEG

Seaborne Lifeline

diminishing oil supply

explore and exploit all resource potential

Supply energy chain for the new global economic

hubincrease food consumption and poverty

levels

alternative source for new

energy and resouces

purely commercial

and liberalize

Oil Race instead of Arms Race

Country Existing and New Developments in the Panatag Shoal and the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea)

Philippines Malampaya and Camago Natural Gas and Condensate Fields (US Oil Giant Shell operates Malampaya and Exxon Mobil, Conoco Phillips, and Chevron have already invested money and technology in the South China Sea )

China Cnooc 981, self-developed oil rig drilling platform began drilling at a depth of 1,500 meters in the Paracel Islands; Cnooc is China’s largest offshore oil producer

Vietnam Vietnam and India inked an agreement in 2011 to expand and promote oil exploration in the South China Sea. Vietnam and Russia also inked similar commercial agreement.

Taiwan Taiwan does not have any commercial projects at present nor intends to pursue one to prevent a direct confrontation with China; Occupies Itu Aba Island, the largest Island in the Panatag Shoal.

Malaysia Malaysia Natural Gas Fields located offshore Sarawak; Malaysia is currently the biggest oil producer in the region

Brunei Brunei Petroleum inked an agreement with China CNOOC for gas and oil commercial exploration. Brunei is the third largest oil exporter in SEA and fourth-largest exporter in natural gas.

DANGEROUS GAMES, DANGEROUS GROUNDS

Dangerous Games,

Dangerous Grounds

renewed, new military

alliances and treaties

increase military

spending and build-up

Spy Games and Goodwill Visits

Meddling and Third Party

Intervention

Cyber Wars and Vandalism

increase number of

military and naval exercises

Trade Sanctions

Halted Flights/Tour

CancellationsBanana SplitThe US repositioning to Asia-Pacific

Region

China's aggressive

military expansionUnrestricted

Warfare Strategy

Arms Race and Local Wars under Informationalized conditions

FIGHT FIRE WITH WATER AND THE ICONIC STATUS QUO

Conserver Scenario

Conserver/ Disciplined

THE “Z” SCENARIO: DEEP DIPLOMACY, DEMILITARIZATION AND JOINT DEVELOPMENT

“I do not fear that the flowing clouds may block my vision, for where I stand is the top of

the mountain”

Ma Keqing Chinese Ambassador

to the Philippines (2012)

the Z

Maraming Salamat Po!