possible scenarios on the future of the panatag island (spratly) using jim dator's four...
DESCRIPTION
A copy of my presentation at the Asia Pacific Foresight Conference held in the City of Perth, West Australia. The presentation discussed some possible scenarios on the future of the Panatag shoal using Dator;s Four Future Archetypes. Abstract The Panatag Island controversy (Spratly Island dispute) is creating a distasteful spectacle in the international community. The ruckus commotion in the disputed triangle chain of reefs have caused deep diplomatic divide between the six claimant nations. The tension that was once mutual is now visual and magnified by the sporadic show of deception and force by the Philippines, China, Vietnam and Taiwan at the diplomatic and military levels. The spat is now the news hour and the remarkable story line of Asia. The Panatag Island dispute has disrupted the relative peace of the region and will, in a multifaceted way, affect the future of Asia. This paper explored possible scenarios on the future of the Panatag island controversy. Using Jim Dator’s four archetypes of alternative futures it asked the question what are the possible scenarios in Asia when viewed from the Panatag Island controversy? What are the consequences of a continued economic growth, collapse, conserver and transformation scenarios at the Panatag Island? What are the likely impacts of these scenarios on other regional disputes like the Senkaku Island and the Takeshima Island chain of island dispute? What are the likely impacts of the scenarios on the future of US-China relations? What scenario needs to happen for claimant nation-states to lessen and gain from the dispute? While there are other scenarios beyond Dator’s alternative futrues, this paper will only explore possible scenarios using Dator’s alternative futures archetypes.TRANSCRIPT
Possible Scenarios on the Future of the Panatag Island (Spratly) using Jim Dator’s Four Archetypes of Alternative FuturesCenter for Engaged Foresight; Vedasto J. Samonte School of Graduate Studies,Northwestern University, Philippines
Content of Presentation
• Panatag Island Dispute: What’s in a name? What lies beneath? What are their claims? The Controversies?
• Dator’s Four Future Archetypes• Panatag Shoal’s Alternative
Futures • Conclusion
What’s in a name? Philippines – Panatag IslandChina – Nansha Island Taiwan – Minzhu JiaoVietnam – Hoang Sa / Troung SaMalaysia – Tereumbo Layang Layang Brunei – Spratly Island (Louissa Reef)
The Panatag Island / West Philippine Sea
What Lies Beneath?
SEABORNE LIFELINE FOR CONTINUED ECONOMIC GROWTH
Seaborne Lifeline for CEG
Seaborne Lifeline
diminishing oil supply
explore and exploit all resource potential
Supply energy chain for the new global economic
hubincrease food consumption and poverty
levels
alternative source for new
energy and resouces
purely commercial
and liberalize
Oil Race instead of Arms Race
Country Existing and New Developments in the Panatag Shoal and the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea)
Philippines Malampaya and Camago Natural Gas and Condensate Fields (US Oil Giant Shell operates Malampaya and Exxon Mobil, Conoco Phillips, and Chevron have already invested money and technology in the South China Sea )
China Cnooc 981, self-developed oil rig drilling platform began drilling at a depth of 1,500 meters in the Paracel Islands; Cnooc is China’s largest offshore oil producer
Vietnam Vietnam and India inked an agreement in 2011 to expand and promote oil exploration in the South China Sea. Vietnam and Russia also inked similar commercial agreement.
Taiwan Taiwan does not have any commercial projects at present nor intends to pursue one to prevent a direct confrontation with China; Occupies Itu Aba Island, the largest Island in the Panatag Shoal.
Malaysia Malaysia Natural Gas Fields located offshore Sarawak; Malaysia is currently the biggest oil producer in the region
Brunei Brunei Petroleum inked an agreement with China CNOOC for gas and oil commercial exploration. Brunei is the third largest oil exporter in SEA and fourth-largest exporter in natural gas.
DANGEROUS GAMES, DANGEROUS GROUNDS
Dangerous Games,
Dangerous Grounds
renewed, new military
alliances and treaties
increase military
spending and build-up
Spy Games and Goodwill Visits
Meddling and Third Party
Intervention
Cyber Wars and Vandalism
increase number of
military and naval exercises
Trade Sanctions
Halted Flights/Tour
CancellationsBanana SplitThe US repositioning to Asia-Pacific
Region
China's aggressive
military expansionUnrestricted
Warfare Strategy
Arms Race and Local Wars under Informationalized conditions
FIGHT FIRE WITH WATER AND THE ICONIC STATUS QUO
Conserver Scenario
Conserver/ Disciplined
THE “Z” SCENARIO: DEEP DIPLOMACY, DEMILITARIZATION AND JOINT DEVELOPMENT
“I do not fear that the flowing clouds may block my vision, for where I stand is the top of
the mountain”
Ma Keqing Chinese Ambassador
to the Philippines (2012)
the Z
Maraming Salamat Po!