peak water and peak energy: implications for security

Peak  Water  and  Peak  Energy:  Implica5ons  for  Security  

 Oxford  University    

Interna5onal  Water  Security  Conference  Dr.  Peter  H.  Gleick  

April  2012  

Global  Popula*on  

Global  CO2  Concentra*on  

U.S.  Oil  Produc*on  

Atlan*c  Cod  1950-­‐2008  

Market  Penetra*on  of  Telephones  

Cumula*ve  Dam  Storage  Capacity  

Renewable  or  Non-­‐Renewable?  

•  Non-­‐renewable  resources  are  “stock”  limited.  •  Renewable  resources  are  “flow”  limited.  

•  Water  and  energy  exhibit  characteris5cs  of  both:  but  while  most  of  our  water  use  is  renewable,  most  energy  use  is  non-­‐renewable.  

Peak  Renewable  Water  

Total  Renewable  Supply  

But,  how  much  can  we  actually  use??  How  much  should  we  actually  use?  

Gleick and Palaniappan 2010, PNAS

Total  Colorado  River  Flow  at  the  Delta  

Gleick and Palaniappan 2010

Global  Reservoir  Capacity  1900  to  Present  

Source: GRanD Database v1.1, 2011

Peak Water?

Continued exponential growth would have required new supply of approx. 850 cubic kilometers of water per year

Peak  “Non-­‐Renewable”  Water  

Such  as  fossil  groundwater  (Central  Valley,  Ogallala,  Libya,  North  China  Plains,  central  India…)  

Gleick and Palaniappan 2010, PNAS

S. Buapeng 2009

1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006

0 0

.4 0

.8 1

.2 1

.6 2

2.4

2.8

Bangkok  Groundwater  Pumping  (Mm3/day)  

Source: USGS, Fischer et al. Open-File Report 99-197

Non-Renewable Groundwater Use: Ogallala Aquifer, US

Peak  “Ecological”  Water  Overall  Econ

omic  and

 Ecological  V

alue

Amount  of  Water  Appropriated  by  Humans  

Gleick and Palaniappan 2010, PNAS

Some  Thoughts  about  Energy  and  Water  

•  Water  use  and  energy  use  are  closely  linked.  –  Energy  produc5on  uses  and  pollutes  water.  – Water  use  requires  significant  energy.  

•  Limits  to  each  are  beginning  to  affect  the  other;  Yet  energy  and  water  issues  are  rarely  integrated  in  policy.  

•  Considering  them  together  offers  substan5al  economic  and  environmental  benefits.  

•  The  reality  of  climate  change  affects  policies  in  both  areas.  

Peak  Water,  Security,  and  Conflict  

•  Defini5ons  of  “security”  vary,  and  are  expanding.  •  There  is  a  long  history  of  conflicts  over  fresh  water.  

•  Such  conflicts  take  many  forms  (as  a  goal,  weapon,  target,  development  disputes,  terrorism).  

•  The  risks  of  water-­‐related  disputes  are  growing,  including  over  “peak  water”  constraints  of  all  kinds.  

•  These  water-­‐related  factors  will  have  both  direct  and  indirect  impacts  on  security  and  conflict.  

http://www.worldwater.org

Source: Gleick 2012, Water Conflict Chronology

The Destruction of the New York Water Works during the Revolutionary War, 1776

From the collection of Peter Gleick

New  Concerns  at  the  Intersec5on  of  Water/Energy/Security?  

•  Water  and  economic  development:  poverty,  water  alloca5ons,  and  rights.  

•  Subna5onal,  state-­‐to-­‐state,  ethnic,  local  disputes  are  all  increasingly  common.  

•  Water-­‐related  acts  of  terrorism.  •  Direct  and  indirect  impacts  of  climate  change.  

So,  What  Does  Peak  Water  Mean?  

•  We’ll  never  “run  out”  of  water  overall.  It  is  (mostly)  renewable.  

•  We  will  run  up  against  renewable  “flow”  limits  that  are  a  combina5on  of  natural  and  economic  constraints.  

•  Where  water  is  “non-­‐renewable”  we  will  run  into  stock  constraints.    

•  We  are  increasingly  hieng  (or  exceeding)  peak  “ecological”  water  limits.  

•  Hieng  these  limits  has  social,  economic,  and  poli5cal  implica5ons.  

Future  Research  Needs  and  Priori5es  

•  Where  are  peak  water  limits  are  being  reached?  

•  Quan5fy  peak  “non-­‐renewable”  limits  (e.g.,  measuring  groundwater  use  and  recharge).  

•  Quan5fy  ecological  requirements  and  limits.  •  Evaluate  implica5ons  of  peak  limits  (Physical?  Economic?  Social?  Poli5cal?  In  what  mixes?).  

•  Evaluate  (and  reduce  the  risks  of)  broad  security  implica5ons:  both  human  security  and  interna5onal  security.  

Dr.  Peter  H.  Gleick    

pgleick@pipeline.com        

www.worldwater.org