nowcasting of the middle atmosphere state based on the reconstructed ssi data

Nowcasting of the middle atmosphere state based on the reconstructed SSI data

T. Egorova*, E. Rozanov*,**, N. Hochmuth***, A.I. Shapiro*, A.V. Shapiro*,**, and W. Schmutz*

*PMOD/WRC, Davos, Switzerland ** ETHZ, Zurich, Switzerland

*** Institut für 4D-Technologien Fachhochschule Nordwestschweiz, Switzerland

SOTERIA, 30 May–01 June 2011

Outline

Project goals and components

Model description and validation

Demonstration of LyraViewer: visualization

Goals of the project

• Find out how well we understand the solar irradiance influence on the middle atmosphere

• Learn how to manage near-real-time operation and visualization

Nowcast of chemical composition in the middle atmosphere

WP5 D5.3:Reconstructed SSI data

for 120-680 nm SOTERIA: Th. Dudok de Wit

and L. E. A. Viera

WP5 D5.3:Reconstructed SSI data

for 120-680 nm SOTERIA: Th. Dudok de Wit

and L. E. A. Viera

Nowcast of anomalies of neutraland charged species

with free running CICM SOCOLi

Nowcast of anomalies of neutraland charged species

with free running CICM SOCOLi

WP5 D5.4: Nowcasting results available

online every 6 hours

WP5 D5.4: Nowcasting results available

online every 6 hours

Output validation to improve the model and

experimental set-up

Output validation to improve the model and

experimental set-up

WP5 D5.4: CICM SOCOLi with SSI data

from D5.3

WP5 D5.4: CICM SOCOLi with SSI data

from D5.3

WP6 D6.5: Online publishing of the

middle atmospherechemical composition

WP6 D6.5: Online publishing of the

middle atmospherechemical composition

Egorova et al. 2005; Schraner et al. 2008; Egorova et al. 2010

CTM:Model for Evaluation of oZONe trends

Rozanov et al. 1999, 2001Egorova et al. 2001, 2003

t = 15 min for dynamicst = 2 h for radiation horizontal resolution: T30 (3.75°) vertical resolution: 39 levels to 0.01 hPa

MEZON

MA-ECHAM4

GCM:Middle Atmosphere version of the European Center/Hamburg Model 4

Manzini and McFarlane, 1998t = 2 h for radiation and chemistry 41 chemical species Electrons, 17 negative ions, 31 positive ions Reactions: 118 gas-phase,

33 photolysis, 16 het, 500 ionic GCM-CTM coupling by O3 , H2O, CH4,

N2O, CFCs

Chemistry-Ionosphere Climate model SOCOLi

Model validation:

1. HEPPA comparison (High Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere)

Case-study SPE October-November 2003 O3 : MIPAS observations

2. Case-study June-August 2004 OH : MLS observations

1. HEPPA comparison (High Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere)

Case-study SPE October-November 2003 O3 : MIPAS observations

2. Case-study June-August 2004 OH : MLS observations

Relative deviation of the solar irradiance in Lyman-Relative deviation of the solar irradiance in Lyman- line line from the 2-month mean. from the 2-month mean.

Compiled by J. Lean

Electron density in the tropics

Tropical mean time evolution (10-11.2003) of the electron concentration (cmTropical mean time evolution (10-11.2003) of the electron concentration (cm -3-3) )

Solar UV

SPE

GCR

IR provided by J.-M. Wissing, AIMOS model

km

Ozone changes due to Haloween storm SPE

Funke et al.,2011

SSI at 205 nm since 1.06.2004

Case study with CICM SOCOLi: Increase SSI by ~5%

The sensitivity of the OH,O3 and electrons for 2004-5 can be estimated using any of availble data sets

Comparison with observations:Hydroxyl (tropical mean)

June, July and August 2004

75 km

CCM SOCOLi output

Mixing ratio of the chosen neutral species and electrons, negative and positive ions density

for the 6 hour period after the last reconstructed SSI data

Mixing ratio of the chosen neutral species and electrons, negative and positive ions density

for the 6 hour period after the last reconstructed SSI data

Charged components:Charged components:

OO+,+, O O22++, O, O44

++, N, N++, NO, NO++, N, N22++, H, H22OO22

++, H, H33OO++,O,O22++ N∙N∙ 22, O, O22

++ H∙H∙ 22O, HO, H33OO++ OH, NO∙OH, NO∙ ++ H∙H∙ 22O, NOO, NO++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22, NO, NO++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)33, NO, NO++ CO∙CO∙ 22, ,

NONO++ N∙N∙ 22, NO, NO++ H∙H∙ 22O CO∙O CO∙ 22, NO, NO++ H∙H∙ 22O N∙O N∙ 22, NO, NO++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22 CO∙CO∙ 22, NO, NO++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22 N∙N∙ 22, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)33, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)44, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)55, ,

HH++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)66, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)77, H, H33OO++ CO∙CO∙ 22, H, H33OO++ N∙N∙ 22, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22 CO∙CO∙ 22, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22 N∙N∙ 22

e¯,O¯, Oe¯,O¯, O22¯, O¯, O33¯, O¯, O44¯, OH¯, CO¯, OH¯, CO33¯, CO¯, CO44¯, NO¯, NO22¯, NO¯, NO33¯, HCO¯, HCO33¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH33¯,O¯,O22¯ H∙¯ H∙ 22O, NOO, NO33¯ H∙¯ H∙ 22O, COO, CO33¯ H∙¯ H∙ 22OO

Neutral components:Neutral components:

OO33 , O , O** , O , O , O , O22**, NO, HO, NO, HO22, ClO, NO, ClO, NO22 , OH, NO , OH, NO33, N, N22OO55, , HNOHNO33,HONO,HONO33, ClONO, ClONO22, Cl, N, N, Cl, N, N**, H, H22OO22, H, HOCl, Cl, H, HOCl, Cl22, Cl, Cl22OO22, HCl , , HCl ,

Br, CHBr, CH22O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNOO, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO33, BrCl, CH, BrCl, CH33, CH, CH33OO22, CH, CH33O, HCO, CHO, HCO, CH33OO22H, HH, H22O, CFC-11, CFC-12, NO, CFC-11, CFC-12, N22O, CHO, CH44, CO, H, CO, H22, CBrF, CBrF33

Charged components:Charged components:

OO+,+, O O22++, O, O44

++, N, N++, NO, NO++, N, N22++, H, H22OO22

++, H, H33OO++,O,O22++ N∙N∙ 22, O, O22

++ H∙H∙ 22O, HO, H33OO++ OH, NO∙OH, NO∙ ++ H∙H∙ 22O, NOO, NO++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22, NO, NO++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)33, NO, NO++ CO∙CO∙ 22, ,

NONO++ N∙N∙ 22, NO, NO++ H∙H∙ 22O CO∙O CO∙ 22, NO, NO++ H∙H∙ 22O N∙O N∙ 22, NO, NO++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22 CO∙CO∙ 22, NO, NO++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22 N∙N∙ 22, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)33, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)44, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)55, ,

HH++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)66, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)77, H, H33OO++ CO∙CO∙ 22, H, H33OO++ N∙N∙ 22, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22 CO∙CO∙ 22, H, H++ (H∙(H∙ 22O)O)22 N∙N∙ 22

e¯,O¯, Oe¯,O¯, O22¯, O¯, O33¯, O¯, O44¯, OH¯, CO¯, OH¯, CO33¯, CO¯, CO44¯, NO¯, NO22¯, NO¯, NO33¯, HCO¯, HCO33¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH¯, ClO¯, Cl¯, CH33¯,O¯,O22¯ H∙¯ H∙ 22O, NOO, NO33¯ H∙¯ H∙ 22O, COO, CO33¯ H∙¯ H∙ 22OO

Neutral components:Neutral components:

OO33 , O , O** , O , O , O , O22**, NO, HO, NO, HO22, ClO, NO, ClO, NO22 , OH, NO , OH, NO33, N, N22OO55, , HNOHNO33,HONO,HONO33, ClONO, ClONO22, Cl, N, N, Cl, N, N**, H, H22OO22, H, HOCl, Cl, H, HOCl, Cl22, Cl, Cl22OO22, HCl , , HCl ,

Br, CHBr, CH22O, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNOO, BrO, HBr, HOBr, BrNO33, BrCl, CH, BrCl, CH33, CH, CH33OO22, CH, CH33O, HCO, CHO, HCO, CH33OO22H, HH, H22O, CFC-11, CFC-12, NO, CFC-11, CFC-12, N22O, CHO, CH44, CO, H, CO, H22, CBrF, CBrF33

4D:latitude, longitude, altitude, time

4D:latitude, longitude, altitude, time

Output parameters:

Neutral: O3, NO, NO2, OH, H2O

Charged: e-, e*, total p+

Thermo-dyn.: T, den, GPH

Homepage:

http://projects.pmodwrc.ch/lyra/

Snap-shot of visualization package

Snap-shot of visualization package

Conclusions and outlook • Model has been developed and validated, it reasonably reproduces the

resposnse of the middle atmosphere to the variability of SSI and particles

• Visualization software has been developed

• Online publishing of chemical composition of the middle atmosphere from nowcasting CCM with input from reconstrustions of SSI (D6.5)

• Online operational nowcast of the chemical composition of the middle atmosphere (D5.4)

• Some things left to polish: homepage, visualization package

PMOD/WRC, Davos

End of the presentation…Thank you!!!

What has been done?

1)Development CCM with ion chemistry: CICM SOCOLi

2)Model validation has been performed (e.g. HEPPA)

3)Visualization software has been developed

4)CICM SOCOLi working with reconstructed SSI from WP5 D5.3

5)On-line publishing of the model data (D5.3)

6)On-line nowcasting of the middle atmosphere parameters