new battleground 2008 xxxvi - realclearpolitics · 2012. 10. 12. · if the election for congress...

BATTLEGROUND 2008 BATTLEGROUND 2008 XXXVIXXXVI

September 7-11, 2008

N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.

If the election for President were held today, and you had to If the election for President were held today, and you had to make a choice, for which candidate would you probably vote? make a choice, for which candidate would you probably vote?

(UNAIDED BALLOT)(UNAIDED BALLOT)

46%

40%

1%

13%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

McCain Obama Othercandidates

Unsure /Refused Q1

If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate

or the Democratic candidate in your district?or the Democratic candidate in your district?

Q2

40%

11% 12%

48%

40%40%40%40%41%41% 40%41%

13%13% 14%10%

14%13%15%

47%49%46%47%49%

46%46%44%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Republican 41% 41% 40% 41% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%Undecided 15% 13% 14% 10% 13% 14% 11% 13% 12%Democrat 44% 46% 46% 49% 47% 46% 49% 47% 48%

Mar-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Sep-06 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08

Please tell me which Please tell me which oneone issue is issue is mostmost important for Congress to important for Congress to work on? work on?

8%

4%

3%

10%

5%

8%

5%

26%

9%

6%

2%

0% 10% 20% 30%

War in Iraq

Illegal immigration

Taxes

Terrorism and homelandsecurity

Education

Health care costs

Federal budget deficit

The economy and jobs

Gas and energy prices

The mortgage crisis

Retirement security and SocialSecurity

Q3

How would you rate the job Congress has been doing this year? How would you rate the job Congress has been doing this year?

Do you approve or disapprove of the job they are doing?Do you approve or disapprove of the job they are doing?

19%9%

72%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Approve Unsure DisapproveQ4

Please tell me if you have heard of this person, and if so, whetPlease tell me if you have heard of this person, and if so, whether her you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person.you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person.

““John McCainJohn McCain””

Q6

58%57%54%58%54%52%

62%65%

37%36%29%39%

33%25%

29%

18%

4%6%6%8%9%8%12%

11%

1%0% 0%5%4%6%7%7%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Favorable 65% 52% 62% 54% 58% 54% 57% 58%Unfavorable 18% 29% 25% 33% 29% 39% 36% 37%No Opinion 11% 12% 8% 9% 8% 6% 6% 4%Never heard of 7% 7% 6% 4% 5% 0% 0% 1%

Feb-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08

Please tell me if you have heard of this person, and if so, whetPlease tell me if you have heard of this person, and if so, whether her you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person.you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person.

““Barack ObamaBarack Obama””

Q5

57%57%54%

59% 57%

46%

39%37%40%

33%28%21%

6%5%6%7%8%

12% 0%0%0%3%6%0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Favorable 46% 59% 57% 54% 57% 57%Unfavorable 21% 28% 33% 40% 39% 37%No Opinion 12% 8% 7% 6% 5% 6%Never heard of 21% 6% 3% 0% 0% 0%

Jan-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08

If the election for President and Vice President were held todayIf the election for President and Vice President were held today and and you had to make a choice for whom would you vote?you had to make a choice for whom would you vote?

Undecided5%Nader-Gonzalez

1%

Obama-Biden44%

Barr-Root1%

McCain-Palin48%

Q9

Please tell me if you have heard of this person, and if so, whetPlease tell me if you have heard of this person, and if so, whether her you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person.you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person.

53% 29% 10% 8%

49% 29% 13% 9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Joe Biden

Sarah Palin

Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Never heard ofQ7-8

Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice oOverall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of f candidates for president this year candidates for president this year ---- are you very satisfied, somewhat are you very satisfied, somewhat

satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied? satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?

Q10

18%16%

20%

31%

22%

41%35%35%

17%

28%

24%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Very Satisfied 22% 20% 31%Somewhat Satisfied 35% 35% 41%Somewhat Dissatisfied 24% 28% 17%Very Dissatisfied 18% 16% 7%

May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08

Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how comfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would becomfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would be

voting for a Presidential candidate who is African American? voting for a Presidential candidate who is African American?

7%

37%

27%

18%

6%

31%32%

20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Extremelycomfortable

Very Comfortable SomewhatComfortable

Not at allComfortable

Aug-08 Sep-08Q23

Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how comfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would becomfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would be

voting for a Presidential candidate who is 72 years old? voting for a Presidential candidate who is 72 years old?

27%

40%

19%

11%

25%

39%

18%

9%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Extremelycomfortable

Very Comfortable SomewhatComfortable

Not at allComfortable

Aug-08 Sep-08Q23

Thinking about what you might have seen, read or heard recently Thinking about what you might have seen, read or heard recently about about John McCainJohn McCain, has it made you more likely or less likely to , has it made you more likely or less likely to

vote for him?vote for him?

Q12

43%

48%

37%

44%

47%44%

4%

8%13%

5%3%6%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

More Likely 37% 43% 48%Less Likely 44% 47% 44%No Difference 13% 8% 4%Unsure 6% 3% 5%

May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08

Thinking about what you might have seen, read or heard recently Thinking about what you might have seen, read or heard recently about about Barack ObamaBarack Obama, has it made you more likely or less likely to , has it made you more likely or less likely to

vote for him?vote for him?

Q13

42%

48%

37%

46%

46%47%

2%

7%12%

5%5%4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

More Likely 37% 42% 48%Less Likely 47% 46% 46%No Difference 12% 7% 2%Unsure 4% 5% 5%

May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08

Regardless of who you intend to vote for, which candidate Regardless of who you intend to vote for, which candidate ---- John John McCain, or Barack Obama McCain, or Barack Obama ---- do you think is running a more do you think is running a more

negative campaign?negative campaign?

21%

11%10% 9%

50%

28%

10%9%12%

42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

McCain Both Neither / Nodifference

Undecided Obama

Aug-08 Sep-08 Q14

Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?

IS A STRONG LEADERIS A STRONG LEADER

Q15

52% 51%

48%

37%37%

43%

30%

40%

50%

60%

McCain 48% 52% 51%Obama 43% 37% 37%

May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08

Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?

SHARES YOUR VALUESSHARES YOUR VALUES

Q16

46%

45%43%

46%

43%

46%

30%

40%

50%

60%

McCain 43% 46% 45%Obama 46% 43% 46%

May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08

Q17

Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?

FIGHTS FOR PEOPLE LIKE MEFIGHTS FOR PEOPLE LIKE ME

39%42%

33%

48%48%

53%

30%

40%

50%

60%

McCain 33% 39% 42%Obama 53% 48% 48%

May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08

Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?

WILL UNITE THE COUNTRYWILL UNITE THE COUNTRY

Q18

36%

39%

33%

47%

50%

53%

30%

40%

50%

60%

McCain 33% 36% 39%Obama 53% 50% 47%

May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08

Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?

34% 52%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Will bring change toWashington

McCain Obama

Q19

Q20

Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?

SAYS WHAT HE BELIEVESSAYS WHAT HE BELIEVES

42%

44%42%

40%

30%

40%

50%

60%

McCain 44% 42%Obama 40% 42%

Aug-08 Sep-08

Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?

HANDLING THE HEALTH CARE ISSUEHANDLING THE HEALTH CARE ISSUE

Q21

35% 34%

24%

52%54%61%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

McCain 24% 35% 34%Obama 61% 54% 52%

May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08

Q22

Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?

CAN REDUCE GAS AND ENERGY PRICESCAN REDUCE GAS AND ENERGY PRICES

40%

38%

31%37%

37%

50%

30%

40%

50%

60%

McCain 31% 40% 38%Obama 50% 37% 37%

May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08

Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?

WILL KEEP AMERICA PROSPEROUSWILL KEEP AMERICA PROSPEROUS

Q23

43% 43%41%

44%43%47%

30%

40%

50%

60%

McCain 41% 43% 43%Obama 47% 43% 44%

May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08

Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?

WILL CREATE JOBS AND IMPROVE THE ECONOMYWILL CREATE JOBS AND IMPROVE THE ECONOMY

Q24

39%

39%

33%

47%

48%

54%

30%

40%

50%

60%

McCain 33% 39% 39%Obama 54% 48% 47%

May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08

Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?

57% 33%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Keeping America safeand secure

McCain Obama

Q25