new battleground 2008 xxxvi - realclearpolitics · 2012. 10. 12. · if the election for congress...
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BATTLEGROUND 2008 BATTLEGROUND 2008 XXXVIXXXVI
September 7-11, 2008
N=1,000 Registered “Likely” Voters/±3.1% M.O.E.
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If the election for President were held today, and you had to If the election for President were held today, and you had to make a choice, for which candidate would you probably vote? make a choice, for which candidate would you probably vote?
(UNAIDED BALLOT)(UNAIDED BALLOT)
46%
40%
1%
13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
McCain Obama Othercandidates
Unsure /Refused Q1
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If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate
or the Democratic candidate in your district?or the Democratic candidate in your district?
Q2
40%
11% 12%
48%
40%40%40%40%41%41% 40%41%
13%13% 14%10%
14%13%15%
47%49%46%47%49%
46%46%44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Republican 41% 41% 40% 41% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40%Undecided 15% 13% 14% 10% 13% 14% 11% 13% 12%Democrat 44% 46% 46% 49% 47% 46% 49% 47% 48%
Mar-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Sep-06 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08
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Please tell me which Please tell me which oneone issue is issue is mostmost important for Congress to important for Congress to work on? work on?
8%
4%
3%
10%
5%
8%
5%
26%
9%
6%
2%
0% 10% 20% 30%
War in Iraq
Illegal immigration
Taxes
Terrorism and homelandsecurity
Education
Health care costs
Federal budget deficit
The economy and jobs
Gas and energy prices
The mortgage crisis
Retirement security and SocialSecurity
Q3
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How would you rate the job Congress has been doing this year? How would you rate the job Congress has been doing this year?
Do you approve or disapprove of the job they are doing?Do you approve or disapprove of the job they are doing?
19%9%
72%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Approve Unsure DisapproveQ4
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Please tell me if you have heard of this person, and if so, whetPlease tell me if you have heard of this person, and if so, whether her you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person.you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person.
““John McCainJohn McCain””
Q6
58%57%54%58%54%52%
62%65%
37%36%29%39%
33%25%
29%
18%
4%6%6%8%9%8%12%
11%
1%0% 0%5%4%6%7%7%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Favorable 65% 52% 62% 54% 58% 54% 57% 58%Unfavorable 18% 29% 25% 33% 29% 39% 36% 37%No Opinion 11% 12% 8% 9% 8% 6% 6% 4%Never heard of 7% 7% 6% 4% 5% 0% 0% 1%
Feb-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08
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Please tell me if you have heard of this person, and if so, whetPlease tell me if you have heard of this person, and if so, whether her you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person.you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person.
““Barack ObamaBarack Obama””
Q5
57%57%54%
59% 57%
46%
39%37%40%
33%28%21%
6%5%6%7%8%
12% 0%0%0%3%6%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Favorable 46% 59% 57% 54% 57% 57%Unfavorable 21% 28% 33% 40% 39% 37%No Opinion 12% 8% 7% 6% 5% 6%Never heard of 21% 6% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Jan-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08
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If the election for President and Vice President were held todayIf the election for President and Vice President were held today and and you had to make a choice for whom would you vote?you had to make a choice for whom would you vote?
Undecided5%Nader-Gonzalez
1%
Obama-Biden44%
Barr-Root1%
McCain-Palin48%
Q9
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Please tell me if you have heard of this person, and if so, whetPlease tell me if you have heard of this person, and if so, whether her you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person.you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of that person.
53% 29% 10% 8%
49% 29% 13% 9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Joe Biden
Sarah Palin
Favorable Unfavorable No opinion Never heard ofQ7-8
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Overall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice oOverall, how satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the choice of f candidates for president this year candidates for president this year ---- are you very satisfied, somewhat are you very satisfied, somewhat
satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied? satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied or very dissatisfied?
Q10
18%16%
20%
31%
22%
41%35%35%
17%
28%
24%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Very Satisfied 22% 20% 31%Somewhat Satisfied 35% 35% 41%Somewhat Dissatisfied 24% 28% 17%Very Dissatisfied 18% 16% 7%
May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08
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Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how comfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would becomfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would be
voting for a Presidential candidate who is African American? voting for a Presidential candidate who is African American?
7%
37%
27%
18%
6%
31%32%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Extremelycomfortable
Very Comfortable SomewhatComfortable
Not at allComfortable
Aug-08 Sep-08Q23
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Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how Putting aside your own personal feelings for a moment, how comfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would becomfortable do you think that your friends or neighbors would be
voting for a Presidential candidate who is 72 years old? voting for a Presidential candidate who is 72 years old?
27%
40%
19%
11%
25%
39%
18%
9%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Extremelycomfortable
Very Comfortable SomewhatComfortable
Not at allComfortable
Aug-08 Sep-08Q23
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Thinking about what you might have seen, read or heard recently Thinking about what you might have seen, read or heard recently about about John McCainJohn McCain, has it made you more likely or less likely to , has it made you more likely or less likely to
vote for him?vote for him?
Q12
43%
48%
37%
44%
47%44%
4%
8%13%
5%3%6%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
More Likely 37% 43% 48%Less Likely 44% 47% 44%No Difference 13% 8% 4%Unsure 6% 3% 5%
May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08
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Thinking about what you might have seen, read or heard recently Thinking about what you might have seen, read or heard recently about about Barack ObamaBarack Obama, has it made you more likely or less likely to , has it made you more likely or less likely to
vote for him?vote for him?
Q13
42%
48%
37%
46%
46%47%
2%
7%12%
5%5%4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
More Likely 37% 42% 48%Less Likely 47% 46% 46%No Difference 12% 7% 2%Unsure 4% 5% 5%
May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08
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Regardless of who you intend to vote for, which candidate Regardless of who you intend to vote for, which candidate ---- John John McCain, or Barack Obama McCain, or Barack Obama ---- do you think is running a more do you think is running a more
negative campaign?negative campaign?
21%
11%10% 9%
50%
28%
10%9%12%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
McCain Both Neither / Nodifference
Undecided Obama
Aug-08 Sep-08 Q14
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Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?
IS A STRONG LEADERIS A STRONG LEADER
Q15
52% 51%
48%
37%37%
43%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 48% 52% 51%Obama 43% 37% 37%
May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08
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Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?
SHARES YOUR VALUESSHARES YOUR VALUES
Q16
46%
45%43%
46%
43%
46%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 43% 46% 45%Obama 46% 43% 46%
May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08
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Q17
Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?
FIGHTS FOR PEOPLE LIKE MEFIGHTS FOR PEOPLE LIKE ME
39%42%
33%
48%48%
53%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 33% 39% 42%Obama 53% 48% 48%
May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08
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Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?
WILL UNITE THE COUNTRYWILL UNITE THE COUNTRY
Q18
36%
39%
33%
47%
50%
53%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 33% 36% 39%Obama 53% 50% 47%
May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08
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Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?
34% 52%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Will bring change toWashington
McCain Obama
Q19
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Q20
Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?
SAYS WHAT HE BELIEVESSAYS WHAT HE BELIEVES
42%
44%42%
40%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 44% 42%Obama 40% 42%
Aug-08 Sep-08
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Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?
HANDLING THE HEALTH CARE ISSUEHANDLING THE HEALTH CARE ISSUE
Q21
35% 34%
24%
52%54%61%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
McCain 24% 35% 34%Obama 61% 54% 52%
May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08
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Q22
Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?
CAN REDUCE GAS AND ENERGY PRICESCAN REDUCE GAS AND ENERGY PRICES
40%
38%
31%37%
37%
50%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 31% 40% 38%Obama 50% 37% 37%
May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08
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Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?
WILL KEEP AMERICA PROSPEROUSWILL KEEP AMERICA PROSPEROUS
Q23
43% 43%41%
44%43%47%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 41% 43% 43%Obama 47% 43% 44%
May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08
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Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?
WILL CREATE JOBS AND IMPROVE THE ECONOMYWILL CREATE JOBS AND IMPROVE THE ECONOMY
Q24
39%
39%
33%
47%
48%
54%
30%
40%
50%
60%
McCain 33% 39% 39%Obama 54% 48% 47%
May-08 Aug-08 Sep-08
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Who better represents this quality: Who better represents this quality: Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?Senator John McCain or Senator Barack Obama?
57% 33%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Keeping America safeand secure
McCain Obama
Q25