mobile dram market dynamics in the evolving mobile ecosystem · 2014-09-12 · in built projector...
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Mobile DRAM market dynamics Mobile DRAM market dynamics in the evolving mobile ecosystemin the evolving mobile ecosystemin the evolving mobile ecosystemin the evolving mobile ecosystem
Mobile Forum 2014 Copyright © 2014 SK hynix
Personal IT devices trendPersonal IT devices trend
ContextualDevices
1st Diversified Era
2nd Diversified Era
Human-like
Personal Computer
Convergence
Devices
DigitalDevices
IT users’ needs trendIT users’ needs trend
More intuitive User-centricAlways connected
New Technology Contents / ServicesConvergence
50TRILLIONGigabytes of Data
50TRILLIONGigabytes of Data
2TRILLION
Financial Transactions
2TRILLION
Financial Transactions
31BILLION
Connected Devices
31BILLION
Connected Devices
4BILLION
Connected People
4BILLION
Connected People
by 2020
Source : IDC, Intel
Changes in mobile ecosystemChanges in mobile ecosystem
Platform
Integrated
Valu
e Chai
n
ContentsContents creation
Platform
Emergence of a Variety of Business Models Telephone Age IP Age
Value ChainReorganization
Contents Network
Terminal
Integratedservices
by a single
independentcompany
Ver
tica
lVa
lue
Chai
n
PlatformAuthorization
NetworkTelecom services
TerminalHandset sales
St. Peter’s Square in 2005 and 2013
Source : NBC news
Mobile devices marketMobile devices market
1,500
2,000
2,500
Mobile Devices Shipment (M)
Smartphone 1,187M
Sales
PLC of Mobile Devices
CAGR
40%
0
500
1,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Smartphone 1,187M
Tablet 291M
Source : SK hynix marketing
* Including Chinese Local brand Tablet (White-Box) Shipment
Feature phone
TimeGrowth Maturity DeclineIntroduction
82%
-9%
Evolution of mobile phone functionsEvolution of mobile phone functions
In built projector Augmented reality
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s Sensors
3D screen
Hologram
Smartphone Display Resolution
DVGA/DVGA+
HVGA/HVGA+
XGA/XGA
2014 1H : WQHD phone launched2015 : UHD phone launch expected
Smartphone Application Processor
Hardware advances in Hardware advances in smartphonesmartphone
2013 2014~2015
PremiumLTE
2012 2013 2014 2015
XGA/XGA
VGA2
UHD
WQHD
FHD
gHD
WVGA/FWVGA
720HD
nHD
Source : SK hynix PPNE/Display Search
Mid to High
Mid to low
Entry
LTE64bit
Octa/Quad core
LTE32bitQuad core
3G32bitDual core
Memory requirementsMemory requirements
32bit 64bit
General App.OS+native AppHardware
300MB up typically
500MB up typically
Mem
ory
Den
sity
Mem
ory
Den
sity
64bit
11 11
14
Smartphone Gb/box
Tablet Gb/box
Memory Contents (Gb/box)
Smartphone
30%Tablet
CAGR
FHD WQHD UHD
Video/Display
FHD WQHD UHD
Display/Encoding
500MB
7GB/s
14GB/s
20GB/s
Mem
ory
Den
sity
Mem
ory
Ban
dw
idth
Hig
her
Res
olu
tion
4
9
5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source : SK hynix PPNE & marketingSource : SK hynix PPNE
Tablet
29%
Notebook
10%
High-end/Premium (>$300)
Smartphone Shipment by Segment
8%
10%
16%
24%
25%
28%
North America
Western Europe
Central & Eastern Europe
Africa Middle East
Central & Latin America
Asia Pacific
Smartphone Shipment CAGR 2011~2017
Growth in emerging marketsGrowth in emerging markets
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mid-end ($100~300)
Entry (<$100)
70%70%70%70%
Source : SK hynix marketingSource : SA
20%20%
27%27%
28%28%
45%45%
Russia
Brazil
China
India
% of Sub-$100 Smartphone in BRICs (Year 2014)
Smartphone Price (US$)
250
300
350
Rise of lowRise of low--priced priced smartphonesmartphone
Discrete CAGR
-13%
Baseband Processor by Integration
100
150
200
250
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
CAGR
-6%
Source : SA
25%36%
47%56%
63%68%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source : Gartner
Integrated CAGR
26%
Wearable devicesWearable devices
9%
17%
19%
22%
Connected TV
Mobile wallet
Everything as a service
What is the next big thing in mobile?
Wearables
Tech. executives think it’s the next big thing
6%
2%
4%
7%
7%
7%
Others
Indoor location
Distance learning
Mobile advertising
Mobile health
Connected car
Source : Open Mobile Media
(Top-level mobile executives attending the Open Mobile Summit)
Wearable devices marketWearable devices market
Per
form
ance
Feature-rich Smart Watchw/ Mid/Low Density mDRAM/Flash
Smart Glassw/ High Density mDRAM/Flash
Hardware Landscape of Wearable Devices
218 260%
CAGR
Wearable Devices Market (M)
Power
Basic Smart Watchw/ Less or Small Density of mDRAM/Flash
w/ Mid/Low Density mDRAM/Flash
Small form factor isthe common requirement
for wearable devices
15
55
65%60%
49%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Others
Smart glasses
Smart watch
Wrist band
YoY
CAGR 95%
Source : SK hynix PPNE & marketingOthers : The other form of devices like necklaces and clips
Good for PCB area saving!
Form Factor Restriction Memory Package Option
<eMMC-POP>
DRAMeMMC
PCB
Mobile AP
Memory solutions for wearable devicesMemory solutions for wearable devices
eMMC-PoP
eMMC-PoP
<eMMC MCP>
Mobile AP DRAMeMMC
PCBPCB
<KGD>
eMMC or micro SD
PCB
Mobile APDRAM
PCB
Much flexibility on memory configurations
PCB space saving with DRAM SiP
and flexible storage with external storage
Source : SK hynix PPNE
DRAM Market Overview
74%
48%
61%
75%
33%29%
30
35
40
45
50
Three Key factors
Changes in DRAM marketChanges in DRAM market
3 major vendors
-38%
-29%
-61%
-23% -25%
-
5
10
15
20
25
'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14
DRAM Revenue ($B)
YoY
Source : WSTS, IDC
1. Conservative capital investment2. Delay of Tech. migration 3. Capacity mix change to mobile DRAM
67%
91%
48%
Conservative Conservative capExcapEx
DRAM industry CapEx/ Revenue trend ($B)
26%20% 19% 19%
48%
27% 28%24%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
DRAM bit growth
Source : iSuppli
CapEx/revenue
40%
50%
60%
70%
DRAM tech migration by generations (wafer output portion)
0%
20%
40%
60%
Net die increase (%)
Tech. migration hurdleTech. migration hurdle
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 5Q 6Q 7Q 8Q 9Q 10Q
4xnm
3xnm
2ynm
4xnm
3xnm
2ynm
Source : Company Data, BNP Paribas estimates
4x 3x 2x 2y 2z
4x 3x 2x 2y 2z
Process steps
Source : SK hynix marketing
PC
27%Consumer & Graphics
Consumer & Graphics
PC
20%Mobile2017
Consumer & Graphics
Shift from PC to mobile DRAMShift from PC to mobile DRAM
DRAM demand by application
Source : SK hynix marketing
PC
57%Mobile
15%
Server
14%
27%
Mobile
35%
Server
25%
2011 2014& Graphics
20%Mobile
40%
Server
27%
2017
SpecialtySpecialty
CommodityCommodityPerformance
Memory paradigm shiftMemory paradigm shift
Cost Down
Value Up
CommodityCommodityPerformance
Quality
Customization
Mobile DRAM life cycle trendMobile DRAM life cycle trend
LPDDR1
LPDDR2
LPDDR2
LPDDR3
1Q10 3Q 1Q11 3Q 1Q12 3Q 1Q13 3Q 1Q14 3Q 1Q15 3Q 1Q16 3Q 1Q17 3Q
LPDDR2
LPDDR3
LPDDR4
WIO2
LPDDR1
Mobile DRAM Demand (B/1Gb EQ) Mobile DRAM Mode Transition (1Gb EQ)
27
31
CAGR
46%
Mobile DRAM demand forecastMobile DRAM demand forecast
LPDDR4
WIO2
LPDDR2
3 6
11
16
21
27
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Source : SK hynix marketing
LPDDR1
LPDDR2
LPDDR3
Demand
Better Performance
Lower Power Consumption
More Cost Effective
Smaller form factor
Mobile memory solution in the futureMobile memory solution in the future
Supply
Lower Power Consumption Smaller form factor
Conservative CapEx Technology Hurdle
Optimal Solutionfor each segment
Thank you
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