metabolic transitions in portugal

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Metabolic Transitions in Portugal

Paulo FerrãoIN+ - Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy ResearchIST - Instituto Superior Técnicohttp://in3.dem.ist.utl.pt

FLAD, Innovation and Productivity for Portugal

2002, June, 26th

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MotivationMotivation

Understanding the Economy metabolism, through Materials Flows Analysis, may contribute to formulate sustainable policies at a national, regional and sectoral level.Is the Portuguese economy a transitional economy, in transition ?

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Portuguese DataPortuguese Data

Spatial boundary: Continental Portugal and Azores and Madeira ArchipelagosYears: 1960 to 1998Sources: DMI: National Statistic Institute (INE)

Geological and Mining Institute (IGM)Forestery Agency (DGF)

Population, GDP: OECD’s National Accounts publications

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Portuguese DMI: DataPortuguese DMI: Data

DMI categories: Imported

Metals and its products

Wood, cork and its products

Products from chemical industry and other industries

Food, beverage products

Vegetable products

Live animals and animal products

Other

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Non-renewable: Fuel ores Metallic ores Stone, clay, sand Non-metallic ores Marine salt

Renewable: Agricultural crops Grazing Forest (wood, cork) Fishing, Hunting Honey, Beeswax

Portuguese DMI: DataPortuguese DMI: Data

DMI categories:

Domestic

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Portuguese Economy: IMPORTSPortuguese Economy: IMPORTS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Food and agricultural products Mineral fuels. lubricantsChemical products Leather manufac.wood. cork and paperTextiles. clothing and footwear Metal ores and metals (except iron)Machinery Transport equipmentOthers

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Portuguese Economy: ExportsPortuguese Economy: Exports

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Food and agricultural products Mineral fuels, lubricantsChemical products Wood, cork and paperLeather manuf, leather and textiles Clothing and footwearMetal ores and metals (except iron) MachineryTransport equipment Others

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Source : Portuguese Environmental Report, 1999

Portuguese Economy: Imports and ExportsPortuguese Economy: Imports and Exports

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ScopeScope

Is Portugal in

transition, Why ?

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The Portuguese case studyThe Portuguese case study

Adapted from Bringezu and Schütz, 2000, Total Material Requirement of the European Union, European Environment Agency, Technical report No 55.

(1988-1997)

We are in transition!

What type?

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Portuguese DMI: EvolutionPortuguese DMI: Evolution

1998 DMI: 174 million ton, 18 ton per capitaSignificative growth 1960-1998: 483% per capita

“We need revolution, not evolution”, ...may be.

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Portuguese DMI: Domestic/ImportedPortuguese DMI: Domestic/Imported

• Almost all non-renewable domestic extraction is due to Rock, Clay and Clay extraction for construction

•Imports: mainly fossil fuels

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Domestic DMI(1000 t)

1960 1970 1980 1990 1998

Non-renewable 5298,4 14789,1 40665,3 50205,1 94109,4 Ores 1673,7 1462,9 1222,7 1825,6 1278,6

Stone, clay, sand 3357,9 13119,0 39225,0 48275,0 92751,8

Marine salt 266,8 207,2 217,6 104,5 79,0

Renewable 21700 23562,8 23566 26810,9 30725,2 Plant 21340,8 23192,5 23287,1 26492,2 30511,9

Animal 359,2 370,3 278,9 318,7 213,3

Total 26998,5 38351,9 64231,4 77015,9 124834,7

Portuguese DMI: Domestic contr.Portuguese DMI: Domestic contr.

Domestic materials: Stone, clay, sand Biomass

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IN+ Portuguese Transition, based on rock, clay and sand

Portuguese Transition, based on rock, clay and sand

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Total DMI Domestic DMI - Rock, Clay and Sand Imports Exports

Here is the impact of revolutions, and why there is transition

BAU

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Decomposition analysis: Malaska (1998)*

Material Flows InteractionsMaterial Flows Interactions

EMP

MF

POP

EMPPOPMF Sustainability and

Employment Identity

GDP

MF

POP

GDPPOPMF

Sustainability and Production Identity

* Moll, 1999, Reducing Societal Metabolism. A Sustainable Development Analysis

Sustainable development associated to MF < 0

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Contributions calculated by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Method (Chung and Rhee, 2000)*:

Residual-free DMI decompositionResidual-free DMI decomposition

* A Residual-free Decomposition of the Sources of Carbon Dioxide Emissions

000

ln)(ln)(ln)(

GDPMF

GDPMF

L

POPGDP

POPGDP

LPOP

POPLMF ttt

0

0

ln)(

MFMF

MFMFL

t

t

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DMI variation for each temporal period (%) Contributions 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-1998 POP 1,3 15,2 1,5 0,9 GDP/POP 75,3 47,0 31,6 30,2 DMI/GDP -24,5 13,4 -1,4 27,2 DMI 52,2 75,6 31,7 58,2 POP 1,3 15,2 1,5 0,9 EMP/POP 4,2 3,5 16,8 -1,4 DMI/EMP 46,6 56,9 13,3 58,7 Note: Percent variation referring to the value of DMI in the first year of each period. GDP at constant prices.

DMI DecompositionDMI Decomposition

• DMI increases in each periodProduction equation:

Main effect: GDP/POP increases

DMI/GDP decreases in 1960 and 1980 decades

Employment equation: Main effect: DMI/EMP increases

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1985-1996

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Denmark Finland France Greece Irland Italy Portugal Spain Sw eden UK

DMI/GDP

DMI

DMI/EMP

International disaggregationInternational disaggregation

Employment in construction

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Is Portugal transitional

?

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IN+ International ComparisonsImports and Exports vs. DMIInternational Comparisons

Imports and Exports vs. DMI

Source: Fischer-Kowalski, M. & Amann, C. (2001) in Population and Environment, Vol. 23, n.1

Portugal

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

GDP per capita

(%, s

hare

DM

I)

Imports (% DMI) Exports (% DMI)

No ?

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DMI vs. GDPDMI vs. GDP

Source: Fischer-Kowalski, M. & Amann, C. (2001) in Population and Environment, Vol. 23, n.1

Well, coherently growing...

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IN+A transitional economy: Material IntensityA transitional economy: Material IntensityPortugal

050

100150200250300350400450500

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

(196

0=10

0)

DMI GDP (US$, 1990) Material intensity (DMI/GDP)

Source: Fischer-Kowalski, M. & Amann, C. (2001) in Population and Environment, Vol. 23, n.1

Yes ?

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Sectoral transition

in environmen

t, GWP ?

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CO2 originCO2 origin

• The fuel consumption in Portugal is especially made by petroleum derivates

• In 1997, natural gas was introduced

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Input-Output AnalysisDirect and indirect costs of the most important sectors to fulfil the total demand in 1993 and 1995

Input-Output AnalysisDirect and indirect costs of the most important sectors to fulfil the total demand in 1993 and 1995

1. Textile & clothing industry

2. Construction

3. Transport vehicles and equipment

4. Agriculture & hunting

5. Chemical products

6. Non-commercial services of Public Administration

7. Financial services

8. Services rendered for companies

9. Petroleum

10.Restaurants & Hotels

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Econom ic Sectors

0

4000

8000

12000

10

6 E

uro

s

Ind irect 93D irect 93

Ind irect 95D irect 95

20

2123

19

22

24

3030

68

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GNP and GWP per economic sector for the years of 1993 and 1995

GNP and GWP per economic sector for the years of 1993 and 1995

1. Textile & clothing industry

2. Construction

3. Transport vehicles and equipment

4. Agriculture & hunting

5. Chemical products

6. Non-commercial services of Public Administration

7. Financial services

8. Services rendered for companies

9. Petroleum

10.Restaurants & Hotels

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Econom ic Sector

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Pe

rcen

tage

G NP & G W P x SectorG N PG W P

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Environmental sustainability of the sectors (increase of GNP versus increase of GWP)

Environmental sustainability of the sectors (increase of GNP versus increase of GWP)

1. Textile & clothing industry

2. Construction

3. Transport vehicles and equipment

4. Agriculture & hunting

5. Chemical products

6. Financial services

7. Services rendered for companies

8. Petroleum

9. Restaurants & Hotels

-40 -20 0 20 40% G NP

-40

-20

0

20

40

% G

WP

1

23

4

5

6

7

8

9

Total

Strong Sustainability

Non-sustainable

W eak Sustainability

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Scales and tools to measure

transition ?

GAMC – 5th Course: Global Automotive Technology

IN+ FLAME MORPHOLOGY

r

V~

V~

x

V~

U~

r

p-

x

)v"u" (

r

"w~ -

r

)"v~ (r

r

1

22

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IN+ From Turbulence to MFAFrom Turbulence to MFA

The large scales transport energy.Stretching promotes faster, smaller and dissipative eddies.Stretching occurs in shear layers, detemined by velocity gradients.

The large scales transport materials, promote stocks().Market promotes local, faster flows where materials dispersion occurs.Dissipation and recyclability is determined by price, regulatory and cultural gradients.

more complex!

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IN+ Identification of large-scale motionsIdentification of materials motion (e.g. copper)

(metabolism length scales)

Identification of large-scale motionsIdentification of materials motion (e.g. copper)

(metabolism length scales)

-12000

-8000

-4000

0

4000

8000

12000

2D

3D

4D

r/d

-3 0 3

Uconv=36.5m/s

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IN+ Time series analysisPhysical Trade Balance (PTB)

Time series analysisPhysical Trade Balance (PTB)

• Physical Trade Balance (PTB) = Imports - Exports

• The Mineral products imported are essentially fuels

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Domestic Material Consumption (DMC)Domestic Material Consumption (DMC)

• Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) = DMI - Exports

• Almost all the material inputs in the Portuguese economy are for domestic consumption

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DPO to air (CO2) and to land (MSW) compared to DMI

DPO to air (CO2) and to land (MSW) compared to DMI

DMI ~DMC, is substantially bigger than DPO to air (CO2) and to land (MSW), and since CO2 emissions are normally the major part of the total DPO, probably a great part of the material inputs are accumulating in stocks (in this case, infrastructures)

Addition to stock

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IN+ Dynamic analysis, auto and cross correlations in time seriesDynamic analysis, auto and cross correlations in time series

Metabolism time scale, from infraestructure to use

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The contribution of eco-design,a case-study in the auto-industry.

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LCALCA

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12G

reen

hous

e

Ozo

ne

Aci

dific

atio

n

Eutr

ophi

catio

n

Hea

vy m

etal

s

Car

cino

geny

Win

ter

smog

Sum

mer

sm

og

Pest

icid

es

Ener

gy

Sol

id w

aste

Use

End of life

Production

LCA MPV Case Study (IST data)

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Design-Environment InteractionsDesign-Environment Interactions

Design

Production

Elv Processing

Use

TechnologicalSolutions

MaterialsSelection

Recyclability

Power TrainTechnology

Pollutants Emissions

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EU DIRECTIVE PROPOSAL ON ELVEU DIRECTIVE PROPOSAL ON ELV

Recovery

Disposal

VEHICLE M1, N1

Re-use

ELV Treatment

ELV Collection

ELV

USE

Recycling

85% (2006) 95% (2015)

80% (2006)85% (2015)

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ELV processing infrastructureELV processing infrastructure

Dismantler

Hulk

Shredder

Landfill

Manufacturer

Raw material producers

Re-use

Siderurgy

Foundry

Steel

Non-ferr met..ASR

Energy recovery

Fluids

Glass

Plastics

Rubber

Cables

RecyclingComponents

Component suppliers

Raw material producers

Component suppliers

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Current recycling effectivenessCurrent recycling effectiveness

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%C

hass

is

Bod

y C

ompl

ete

Pow

er tr

ain

Ele

ctric

Sea

ts &

Trim

s

% t

ota

l ca

r w

eig

ht Lead

Copper

Aluminum

Glass

Rubber

Plastics

SteelRR R RR

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Steel11%

Plastics47%

Rubber9%

Glass33%

Contributions to LandfillContributions to Landfill

Steel4%Rubber

26%

Plastics70%

Chassis16%

Body Complete

35%Electric

7%

Seats & Trims35%

Power train7%

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Construção de Produtos Optimizando a Reciclagem.Caixa do filtro de ar do BMW Z3.

Construção de Produtos Optimizando a Reciclagem.Caixa do filtro de ar do BMW Z3.

Pesquisa & Desenvolvimento

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IN+ Reciclagem na Produção.Consola Central do BMW Série 5.

Reciclagem na Produção.Consola Central do BMW Série 5.

- Material: ABS + PC.

- Quota de Reciclados: 100% mat. moído ou 20% mat. reciclado sem laca.

- Quantidade: aprox. 200 t/a.

Pesquisa & Desenvolvimento

O plástico é injectado e recebe uma película sobre a superfície.

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End-of-life

Use

Software de ecodesign para componentes

automóveis

Production

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forRecycling

FragmentadorCarcaçaVFV

Iner

tes

pesa

dos

Mat

eria

ls p

ara

reci

clag

em

Peç

as p

ara

reut

iliza

ção

Desmantelador

Separador metais não ferrosos

Met

ais

ferr

osos

Iner

tes

“lev

es”

Iner

tes

Metais não ferrosos

Plá

stic

os

Separador de ASR

Vid

ros

ResíduosAterro

Incineração

Subs

tânc

ias

tóxi

cas

ABCD

BCD

BDBC

ABCD

P1 = -7

c1 = 2

P2 = -6

P3 = -3 P4 = -1.5

P5 = -3.5 P6 = -1.5 P7 = 2.5 P8 = 4

c2 = 1.5 c3 = 1.5

c4 = 1 c5 = 1.5

ABCD

BCD

BDBC

ABCD

P1 = -7

c1 = 2

P2 = -6

P3 = -3 P4 = -1.5

P5 = -3.5 P6 = -1.5 P7 = 2.5 P8 = 4

c2 = 1.5 c3 = 1.5

c4 = 1 c5 = 1.5

ELV processing infra-estrutucture

Optimization model for ELV processing

Minimum cost fulfilling regulatory requirements

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ConclusionsConclusions

1960-1998: Significative DMI growth, no absolute dematerialization.DMI originated mainly from domestic environmentStrong dependence on Stone, clay and sand, associated to infrastructures development.Transitional Economy in some indicators, material intensity.Two complementary approaches to analyze time and length scales of the economy metabolism.Ecodesign may contribute to this aim, either environmentally and economically