megan anaya seiji steimetz, ph.d. economics student ...€¦ · 2019 long beach regional economic...
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Seiji Steimetz, Ph.D.
Professor & Chair of Economics
Cal State Long Beach
Megan Anaya
Economics Student
Cal State Long Beach
Presented at the2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
2019
#LBREF
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
#LBREF
National Economic Update
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
#LBREF
Gross Domestic Product
$20.5 trillion
$14
$15
$16
$17
$18
$19
$20
$21
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Real GDP ($ trillions)
GDP
Component% of 2018 GDP
Consumption 68.1%
Investment 17.8%
Government 17.2%
Net Exports -3.1%
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED); Bureau of Economic Analysis
Growth Rates 2016 2017 2018
GDP 1.6% 2.2% 2.9%
Personal
Income1.7% 2.6% 2.9%
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Unemployment
3.9%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Unemployment Rate
U3 Rate U6 Rate
2018 Net Job Gains by Sector (1,000s)
Professional and Business Services 537
Education & Health Services 499
Leisure & Hospitality 410
Manufacturing 242
Construction 223
Transportation & Warehousing 194.5
Financial Activities 102
Wholesale Trade 94.9
Other Services 78
Transportation Equipment 58.6
Information 3
Utilities -0.6
Retail Trade -4.5
Net Total Job Gain 2.43 million
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); Bureau of Labor Statistics
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Inflation & Federal Funds Rate
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Inflation Rate FED Funds Rate • Current Inflation Rate:
2.14%
• Target Inflation Rate:
2.00%
• Target Unemployment:
4.00% to 4.60%
• Relaxation of “Quantitative Easing"
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED); www.federalreserve.gov
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
#LBREF
Consumer Confidence & Debt
$1 tril.
$3 tril.
$0.5
$1.5
$2.5
$3.5
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Consumer Debt ($ trillions)
Revolving Nonrevolving
Source: Conference Board/OECD; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Consumer Confidence Index
2018:
5% Debt
Increase
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Housing Starts & Durable Goods
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
Housing Starts (millions)
Source: Census Economic Indicators – Seasonally Adjusted
$190
$200
$210
$220
$230
$240
$250
$260
$270
$280
Durable Goods Orders ($ bil.)
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Financial Markets
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
S&P 500 Index
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
-0.04%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
10yr – 3mo Treasury Rate Spread
“Yield Curve
Inversion”
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Long Beach RegionalEconomic Update
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Population, Household Income, Unemployment, and Education
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Population
12.3% 13.2%
43.2%
28.1%
3.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Racial/Ethnic Composition
2016 2017
469,459
10.2 mil.
39.5 mil.
98
100
102
104
106
108
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Population Index
Long Beach LA County CA
Source: Census American Community Survey
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Household and Per-Capita Income
$60,557
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
$70,000
$75,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Median Household Income
Long Beach LA County CA
$32,006
$25,000
$27,000
$29,000
$31,000
$33,000
$35,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Median Per-Capita Income
Long Beach LA County CA
Source: Census American Community Survey
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Unemployment
4.7%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Unemployment Rate
Long Beach LA County CA
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Long Beach
Feb. 2019
4.2%
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Education
79.0%79.8%
75%
80%
85%
2016 2017
Percentage Age 25+ with at least a
High School Diploma
Long Beach LA County CA
30.1%
31.1%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
2016 2017
Percentage Age 25+ with at least a
Bachelor’s Degree
Long Beach LA County CA
Source: Census American Community Survey
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Jobs
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Job Sectors
Major Occupation SectorLong Beach
Employees
Long Beach
%
LA County
%
California
%
Management, Business,
Science, & Arts86,720 37.5% 37.0% 38.7%
Service 47,049 20.3% 19.1% 18.6%
Sales & Office 52,155 22.6% 23.5% 22.5%
Natural Resources,
Construction, & Maintenance15,613 6.8% 7.7% 9.1%
Production, Transportation,
& Material Moving29,688 12.8% 12.7% 11.0%
Total Civilian
Employed Population231,225
Source: Census American Community Survey
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Job Sector Patterns
Source: Census American Community Survey
4.1%
-3.3%
1.7%
-10.4%
-4.6%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Management,
Business, Science, &
Arts
Service Sales & Office Natural Resources,
Construction, &
Maintenance
Production,
Transportation, &
Material Moving
2016-2017 Changes in Employment of Long Beach Residents
Long Beach LA County CA
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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WagesMedian Annual Wages Long Beach LA County California
Management, Business,
Science, & Arts$62,061 $61,645 $67,561
Service $21,542 $20,804 $21,330
Sales & Office $31,713 $31,046 $31,938
Natural Resources,
Construction, & Maintenance$36,945 $32,016 $35,038
Production, Transportation,
& Material Moving$29,458 $26,789 $30,207
Overall Median Wage $36,438 $35,110 $38,170
Source: Census American Community Survey
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Wage Growth by Job Sector
Source: Census American Community Survey
0.8%
6.3%
14.7%
10.7%
2.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Management,
Business, Science, &
Arts
Service Sales & Office Natural Resources,
Construction, &
Maintenance
Production,
Transportation, &
Material Moving
2016-2017 Changes in Median Wages of Long Beach ResidentsLong Beach LA County CA
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Employment Growth by Industry (2015-2017)
-24.2%
22.9%
6.0%
50.7%
0.4%
4.8%
-8.5%
-11.2%
32.6%
-2.2%
8.4%
-5.3%
Wholesale trade
Transportation, warehousing, utilities
Retail trade
Public administration
Professional, scientific, management
Other services
Manufacturing
Leisure , accommodation, food services
Information
Finance, insurance, real estate
Education, health, social assistance
Construction
Source: Census American Community Survey
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Wage Growth by Industry (2015-2017)
6.6%
-9.3%
-5.3%
-9.4%
14.0%
27.3%
21.2%
-3.8%
1.2%
13.7%
1.3%
1.3%
Wholesale trade
Transportation, warehousing, utilities
Retail trade
Public administration
Professional, scientific, management
Other services
Manufacturing
Leisure, accommodation, food services
Information
Finance, insurance, real estate
Education, health, social assistance
Construction
Source: Census American Community Survey
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Real Estate
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Home Prices
$628,900
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Median Single Family Home Value
Long Beach LA County CA
Source: Zillow Research/ZTRAX
Current Median Values
All Home Types$
1yr %
change
5yr %
change
Seal Beach $997,100 6.4% 4.4%
Huntington Beach $833,400 2.7% 3.9%
Cypress $680,500 1.3% 5.0%
Long Beach $597,400 3.3% 5.9%
Lakewood $589,600 2.5% 5.7%
Carson $548,600 5.2% 7.5%
Bellflower $527,600 3.3% 7.1%
LA-Long Beach-Anaheim
Metropolitan Area$652,200 2.5% 6.2%
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Apartment Rents
$1,800
$2,360
$1,500
$1,700
$1,900
$2,100
$2,300
2017 2018 2019
Median Rent (Multi-Unit Buildings)
Long Beach LA-LB-Anaheim
Source: Zillow Research/ZTRAX; PolicyMap
Current Median Rents
Multi-Unit Buildings$
2yr %
change
Huntington Beach $2,235 -22.8%
Carson $2,150 14.7%
Lakewood $2,030 17.2%
Whittier $1,830 3.2%
Long Beach $1,800 10.8%
Paramount $1,635 6.3%
Bellflower $1,600 10.3%
LA-Long Beach-Anaheim
Metropolitan Area$2,360 6.2%
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Residential Construction & Vacancy
128
73
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Residential Construction Permits
Single Unit Multi Unit
Source: Census Building Permits Survey; Valassis Lists
0.75%
0.60%
0.70%
0.80%
0.90%
1.00%
1.10%
1.20%
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2018
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2019
Q1
Residential Vacancy Rates
Long Beach LA County CA
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Office Market
2018 4th Quarter Office MarketTotal
Square Feet
%
Leased
Available
Square Feet
Rent per
square foot
Downtown – Class A 1,436,314 84.6% 221,280 $3.03
Downtown – Class B 2,441,612 79.5% 501,519 $2.35
Downtown – Class C 223,2948 94.2% 12,930 $1.65
Downtown LB Totals 4,101,220 82.1% 735,729 $2.35
405/710 Corridor 984,438 95.0% 49,394 $2.20
Bixby Knolls/Signal Hill 742,617 86.4% 101,182 $1.94
East Long Beach/Seal Beach 912,824 89.3% 97,410 $2.35
Long Beach Airport Area 2,383,659 94.0% 143,311 $2.58
Suburban LB Totals 5,023,538 92.2% 391,297 $2.27
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Office Market Survey Q4 18 Snapshot
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Non-Residential Construction & Vacancy
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
Non-Residential Permit Values
($ millions)
Commercial Industrial Retail
Office Hotel Alterations
$650m
Source: Construction Industry Research Board; Valassis Lists
5.60%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
2018
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2019
Q1
Business Vacancy Rates
Long Beach LA County CA
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Business Climate
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Taxable Sales
$1.19b
$1.36b
$1.1
$1.2
$1.3
$1.4
$1.5
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1
Long Beach Taxable Sales ($ bil.)
Source: California Department of Tax and Fee Administration
$37.4b
$38.5b
$37
$38
$39
$40
$41
$42
2017 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2018 Q1
LA County Taxable Sales ($ bil.)
2.7% Increase14.3% Increase
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Downtown Retail Sales
Source: Downtown Long Beach Economic Profile
$590m
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Downtown LB Retail Sales ($mil.)
11.8%
16.6%15.5% 14.8%
18.9%
21.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Annual Growth Rates
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Long Beach Small Business Survey
Source: Long Beach Small Business Monitor 2019
55%
31%
14%
40%37%
23%
55%
29%
16%
50%
33%
17%
43%
34%
24%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Get Better? Remain the Same? Get Worse?
“Will the economy for small business in the Long Beach region…”
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Long Beach Small Business Survey
21%
29%31%
29%27%
33%30% 28%
6% 7% 7% 8%
13%
6% 7%
11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Increase Decrease
“Do you expect your hiring of new employees to increase, decrease, or be unchanged?”
Source: Long Beach Small Business Monitor 2019
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Long Beach Small Business Survey
31%28%
41%
35%
31%
35% 35%
39%
20%
14%
18% 17% 17%
13% 12% 12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Increase Decrease
“Do you expect spending on equipment & supplies to increase, decrease or be unchanged?”
Source: Long Beach Small Business Monitor 2019
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Port of Long Beach
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
Loaded TEUs
Inbound Outbound Total
Source: Port of Long Beach
• 2018 Record Volume:
5.6 million loaded TEUs
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Economic Impact
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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What is Economic Impact Analysis?D
irec
t Induced
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Analysis Region
Los Angeles County
Orange County
• Los Angeles and Orange Counties
• Population: 13.35 million
• Employment: 8.69 million
• Gross Regional Product: $1.01 trillion
Source: IMPLAN; American Community Survey Public Use Microdata
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Economic Impactof Long Beach & Signal Hill Residents
• Population: 484,061
• Employed Residents: 238,827
• Regional Economic Impact: $92.7 billion• Direct Impact (GRP): $53.3 billion
• Indirect & Induced Impact: $39.4 billion
• Additional Jobs Supported: 217,995
Source: 2017 IMPLAN Model Year
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Economic Impactof Long Beach & Signal Hill Residents
Five Most Impactful Sectors
Source: 2017 IMPLAN Model Year
Sector Employment Economic Impact% of Long Beach’s
Economic Impact
Petroleum Refineries 1,256 $8.16 billion 8.8%
Real Estate 14,797 $4.53 billion 4.9%
Wholesale Trade 16,685 $4.07 billion 4.4%
Aircraft Manufacturing 4,640 $3.80 billion 4.1%
Hospitals 15,828 $2.89 billion 3.1%
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Economic Impact of Self-EmployedLong Beach & Signal Hill Residents
• Self-Employed Residents: 25,238
• Regional Economic Impact: $6.2 billion• Direct Impact (GRP): $3.4 billion
• Indirect & Induced Impact: $2.8 billion
• Additional Jobs Supported: 16,342
Source: 2017 IMPLAN Model Year
2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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Economic Impact of Self-EmployedLong Beach & Signal Hill Residents
Five Most Impactful Sectors
Source: 2017 IMPLAN Model Year
Sector Employment Economic Impact% of Long Beach’s
Economic Impact
Real Estate 2,543 $793.2 million 0.86%
Construction of
New Commercial Structures2,935 $445.0 million 0.48%
Wholesale Trade 927 $228.1 million 0.25%
Insurance Carriers 430 $189.3 million 0.22%
Management Consulting 1,443 $181.4 million 0.20%
Seiji Steimetz, Ph.D.
Professor & Chair of Economics
Cal State Long Beach
Megan Anaya
Economics Student
Cal State Long Beach
Presented at the2019 Long Beach Regional Economic Forum
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