karl albrecht's presentation to the world future society conference, orlando, 2014
Post on 14-Jul-2015
246 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
“Deconstructing the Future”
Karl Albrecht
World Future Society
World Future 2014July 12, 2014
Orlando
Seeing Beyond“Magic Wand” Predictions
The “Oh-S***” Future
Whose “Future” Do You Believe?
The “Gee-Whiz” Future
The Turning Point?
“Civilization is more
and more a race
between education
and catastrophe.”
~ H.G. Wells, 1902
Do Futurists Drink Too Much Coffee?
“Magic Wand” Predictions
About That Overpopulation
Problem
Famous “Bad Calls”
“Forget it, Louis -
no Civil War picture
has ever
made a nickel.”
- Irving Thalberg,
business Adviser
to Louis B. Mayer,
who turned down
“Gone With the Wind,” 1937
GONE
with the
WIND
Famous “Bad Calls”
“Robert Goddard’stheories about
space travel
are too far-fetched
even to be
considered.”
- Scientific American
Magazine, 1940
Famous “Bad Calls”
“We will bury you.
And you capitalists
will sell us the shovels
to do it with.”
- Nikita Khrushchev,
Premier of USSR, 1962
Famous “Bad Calls”
“I see no reason
why anyone
would need
a computer
in their home.”
- Ken Olsen, founder of
Digital Equipment Corp.,
1977
“We stand on the threshold of rocket mail”
What’s the Next “Rocket Mail”?
Computers
to replace
futurists by
2025
The Final Prediction?
How Do Futurists Think?
Two Thinking “Systems”
“System 1”:Reflexive
“System 2”:Reflective
“System 2” Thinking: What If . . .?
“System 2” Thinking: a Strategy Exercise
• 5 coins, each touching 2 neighbors.• Players alternate taking way coins.• Each player can take either 1 coin, or 2 if they’re touching each other.• Cannot disturb the other coins.• Winner is the one who takes the last coin (or coins).• What strategy will always win the game?
1
2
34
5
There Will Always be New Ideas
Square Watermelons?
Low-budget Funerals?
Wine Sling?
Musical Taser?
New Fashions?
The Digital
Outhouse?
Underwater Hotels?
Space Tourism?
Electronic Tombstones?
Customer
Competitor
Economic
Techno-
logicalSocial
Political
Legal
Geo-
physical
The Strategic Radar Model for Business
The Structured Inquiry Method
1. Map out the “Strategic Context”
2. Discover the Drivers
3. Build the Road Map
Starts with Asking a “Big Question.”
Then ...
1. Mind Mapping: The “Strategic Context”
2. Affinity Diagramming: The “Drivers”
DRIVER 4
DRIVER 3
DRIVER 2
DRIVER 1
3. Card Planning: The “Roadmap”
Time Line
Better Questions => Better Predictions
A Useful Prediction Is …
• Anchored in a Context
• Time-bound [“… by the year 20xx”]
• Confidence-Rated [“+/- 5 years”] [“Conf. = 90%”]
• Testable [observable criteria…]
New Thinking for a New World
“Everything should be made
as simple as possible – but
not simpler.”
~ Albert Einstein
Books
Visit WFS Bookstore
Order & pay; provide shipping address
Will be shipped to you (no shipping cost)
Your Strategic Radar The Northbound Train
top related