karl albrecht's presentation to the world future society conference, orlando, 2014

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Deconstructing the FutureKarl Albrecht World Future Society World Future 2014 July 12, 2014 Orlando Seeing Beyond “Magic Wand” Predictions

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Page 1: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

“Deconstructing the Future”

Karl Albrecht

World Future Society

World Future 2014July 12, 2014

Orlando

Seeing Beyond“Magic Wand” Predictions

Page 2: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

The “Oh-S***” Future

Whose “Future” Do You Believe?

The “Gee-Whiz” Future

Page 3: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

The Turning Point?

“Civilization is more

and more a race

between education

and catastrophe.”

~ H.G. Wells, 1902

Page 4: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

Do Futurists Drink Too Much Coffee?

Page 5: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

“Magic Wand” Predictions

About That Overpopulation

Problem

Page 6: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

Famous “Bad Calls”

“Forget it, Louis -

no Civil War picture

has ever

made a nickel.”

- Irving Thalberg,

business Adviser

to Louis B. Mayer,

who turned down

“Gone With the Wind,” 1937

GONE

with the

WIND

Page 7: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

Famous “Bad Calls”

“Robert Goddard’stheories about

space travel

are too far-fetched

even to be

considered.”

- Scientific American

Magazine, 1940

Page 8: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

Famous “Bad Calls”

“We will bury you.

And you capitalists

will sell us the shovels

to do it with.”

- Nikita Khrushchev,

Premier of USSR, 1962

Page 9: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

Famous “Bad Calls”

“I see no reason

why anyone

would need

a computer

in their home.”

- Ken Olsen, founder of

Digital Equipment Corp.,

1977

Page 10: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

“We stand on the threshold of rocket mail”

Page 11: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

What’s the Next “Rocket Mail”?

Page 12: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

Computers

to replace

futurists by

2025

The Final Prediction?

Page 13: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

How Do Futurists Think?

Page 14: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

Two Thinking “Systems”

“System 1”:Reflexive

“System 2”:Reflective

Page 15: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

“System 2” Thinking: What If . . .?

Page 16: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

“System 2” Thinking: a Strategy Exercise

• 5 coins, each touching 2 neighbors.• Players alternate taking way coins.• Each player can take either 1 coin, or 2 if they’re touching each other.• Cannot disturb the other coins.• Winner is the one who takes the last coin (or coins).• What strategy will always win the game?

1

2

34

5

Page 17: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

There Will Always be New Ideas

Page 18: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

Square Watermelons?

Page 19: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

Low-budget Funerals?

Page 20: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

Wine Sling?

Page 21: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

Musical Taser?

Page 22: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

New Fashions?

Page 23: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

The Digital

Outhouse?

Page 24: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

Underwater Hotels?

Page 25: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

Space Tourism?

Page 26: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

Electronic Tombstones?

Page 27: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

Customer

Competitor

Economic

Techno-

logicalSocial

Political

Legal

Geo-

physical

The Strategic Radar Model for Business

Page 28: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

The Structured Inquiry Method

1. Map out the “Strategic Context”

2. Discover the Drivers

3. Build the Road Map

Starts with Asking a “Big Question.”

Then ...

Page 29: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

1. Mind Mapping: The “Strategic Context”

Page 30: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

2. Affinity Diagramming: The “Drivers”

DRIVER 4

DRIVER 3

DRIVER 2

DRIVER 1

Page 31: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

3. Card Planning: The “Roadmap”

Time Line

Page 32: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

Better Questions => Better Predictions

A Useful Prediction Is …

• Anchored in a Context

• Time-bound [“… by the year 20xx”]

• Confidence-Rated [“+/- 5 years”] [“Conf. = 90%”]

• Testable [observable criteria…]

Page 33: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

New Thinking for a New World

“Everything should be made

as simple as possible – but

not simpler.”

~ Albert Einstein

Page 34: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

Books

Visit WFS Bookstore

Order & pay; provide shipping address

Will be shipped to you (no shipping cost)

Your Strategic Radar The Northbound Train

Page 35: Karl Albrecht's Presentation to the World Future Society Conference, Orlando, 2014

For More Information…

http://www.KarlAlbrecht.com