joint risk assessment in south america

Joint Risk Assessment in South America

Catalina Yepes Estrada

GEM Foundation, Pavia - Italy

The “South America integrated Risk Assessment” (SARA) project

South America Regional program

• 13 countries

• Total population > 402 Million

• Developing countries

– Big cities

– Informal construction

The “South America integrated Risk Assessment” (SARA) project

South America Regional program

Magnitude

Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalogue (GCMT)1976 - 2014

• 13 countries

• Total population ~ 402 Million

• Developing countries

– Big cities

– Informal construction

Population in 2012 ~ 191 million • Colombia 47’704.427 (25%)• Argentina 40’117.096 (21%)• Peru 29’987.800 (16%)• Venezuel

a 29’954.782 (16%)

• Chile 17’464.814 (9%)• Ecuador 15’492.264 (8%)• Bolivia 10’496.285 (5%)

The “South America integrated Risk Assessment” (SARA) project

South America Regional program

Workshop in Medellin (Colombia)

Special focus on exposure and vulnerability

– Training on the Inventory Data Capture tools

– Introduction to the GEM taxonomy

– Derivation of Exposure Models

An initial attempt for a unified South American risk model

hazard map – 475 years Loss map – 475 years

Colombia, a regional study for Antioquia (Univ. of EAFIT)

• The second largest city (after Bogota)

• >13% of the population of the country

• The Metropolitan area has around 3.5 million of inhabitants (~60%)

• The region is divided in:

– 9 sub-regions

– 125 municipalities

EXPOSURE

• Number of stories

• Socio-economical strata

• Virtual visual inspection (when needed)

Antioquia, the second most populated region in Colombia

Medellin (Zone 1) Medellin (Zone 2) Medellin (Zone 3)

Medellin (outskirts) Sonson (South-East) Caucasia (Bajo cauca - North)

Cisneros (North-East) Yondo (Magdalena medio - East) Apartado (Uraba, North–East)

Antioquia, the second most populated region in Colombia

Antioquia, the second most populated region in Colombia

• Chile has a population around 17 million Around 40% of the population is concentrated in Santiago

• Detail exposure models for:– Iquique– Talca– Osorno

A national model for Chile+ detailed models for 3 cities (CIGIDEN)

EXPOSURE

• Census

• Data from the Chamber of Construction

• Visual inspection in the selected cities

• Virtual visual inspection in other regions

A national model for Chile+ detailed models for 3 cities

Built area (m2) between 2002 a 2011

Reinforced concrete < 1972 Reinforced concrete21-30 storeys, < 1972

Reinforced concrete4-9 storeys, < 1972

Wood, 1 storey

Confined masonry3-5 storeys

Confined masonry1 storey + a 2nd light storey

Confined masonry1 storey

Reinforced masonry1 storey

Reinforced masonry3-5 storeys

Adobe1 storey

Adobe2storeys

Data collection after Iquique earthquake (April, 2014)

A national model for Chile+ detailed models for 3 cities (CIGIDEN)

Ecuador, a city scenario for Quito

Universidad San Francisco de Quito+

Quito Municipality

What is the plan?• Create exposure model for the city

• Developing of new fragility functions

• Use microzonation study for hazard

• Damage scenarios and risk (using OQ-engine)

• Analysis of results and development of seismic risk mitigation program proposal

• Communication strategy

Quito and the Metropolitan Areahave around 2.5 million inhabitants

(~20%)

Peru, a city scenario for Lima (CISMID)

What is the plan?• Create a detailed exposure model for a

significant area in the region

• Create the exposure model for the metropolitan area

• Develop fragility and vulnerability functions

• Perform damage scenarios and classical probabilistic risk using OQ-engine

Lima and the Metropolitan Areahave around 8.7 million inhabitants

(~30%)

Country level model for Venezuela

What is the plan?• Description of building typologies

• Create exposure model at municipality level

• Review of existing vulnerability models

• Develop fragility and vulnerability functions

• Perform damage scenarios and classical probabilistic risk using OQ-engine

• Socio-economic indicators and social risk

• Analysis of results and development of seismic risk mitigation program proposal

Title of slide image can go here

Title of slide image can go here

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Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to -www.globalearthquakemodel.org