john sargent senior policy analyst u.s. department of commerce

Remarks before the Computing Research Association

The Adequacy of the U.S. S&E Workforce:A QUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVE

Offshore Outsourcing

John SargentSenior Policy Analyst

U.S. Department of Commerce

Alarm Bells…• “… the nation may likely face severe shortages in SET workers…”

– Land of Plenty, Commission on the Advancement of Women and Minorities in Science, Engineering, and Technology Development (CAWMSET)

• “There is a quiet crisis building in the United States [that] stems from the gap between the nation’s growing need for scientists, engineers, and other technically skilled workers, and its production of them.”

– The Quiet Crisis: Falling Short in Producing American Scientific and Technical Talent, Building Engineering and Science Talent (BEST)

• “… U.S. need for the highest quality human capital in science, mathematics and engineering is not being met.”

– Hart-Rudman Commission• "Our 1998 study found a shortage of 346,000 programmers, systems analysts

and computer scientists." – ITAA president Harris Miller

• "We are not training enough American scientists and engineers to retain our prosperity ...."

– American Scientist magazine, 2001• “a serious deficit of scientists and engineers” resulting in “an evaporating

dominance.” – Dan Goldin, former NASA administrator, 2001

Demand for S&E Workers

Recent Occupational GrowthGrowth Rates

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

Electrical/Electronic

Aerospace

Engineers, n.e.c.

Industrial

Mechanical

Metallurgical/Materials

Nuclear

Petroleum

Chemical

Marine

Mining

Agricultural

EngineeringAverage Annual Employment Growth, 1996-2001

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce analysis of Department of Labor Current Population Survey data-5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Computer Sys Analysts/Scientists

Atmospheric/Space Scientists

Medical scientists

Computer Programmers

Chemists

Biological/Life Scientists

Geologists/Geodesists

Forestry/Conservation

Mathematical Scientists

Agricultural/Food Scientists

Physical Scientists, n.e.c.

Physicists/Astronomers

Physical/Life/Computer Sciences and Mathematics

Average Annual Employment Growth, 1996-2001

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce analysis of Department of Labor Current Population Survey data

Recent Occupational GrowthGrowth in Numbers

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Computer Systems Analysts & ScientistsElectrical/Electronic Engineers

Computer ProgrammersCivil Engineers

Medical ScientistsChemists

Biological/Life ScientistsAerospace Engineers

Engineers, n.e.c.Atmospheric/Space

Industrial EngineersGeologists/Geodesists

Forestry/Conservation ScientistsMathematical Scientists, n.e.c.

Agricultural EngineersNuclear Engineers

Agricultural/Food ScientistsMetallurgical/Materials Engineers

Petroleum EngineersMining Engineers

Physical Scientists, n.e.c.Physicists/Astronomers

Marine EngineersMechanical Engineer

Chemical Engineers

Employment Growth in S&E Occupations1996-2001, in thousands

Aggregate IT Employment 1999-2002

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1999 2000 2001 2002SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of data from U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Employment Survey, 2000-2002, http://www.bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm

Change, 2000-2001Number:-92,870Percent: -3.5%

Change, 2001-2002Number:-42.090Percent: -1.7%

Change, 1999-2000Number: 295,880Percent: +12.6%

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000

Computer and Information Scientists, Research

Computer Software Engineers, Applications

Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software

Computer Support Specialists

Computer Systems Analysts

Database Administrators

Network and Computer Systems Administrators

Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts

Computer Hardware Engineers

Computer and Information Systems Managers

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of data from U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Employment Survey data, 2000-2002, http://www.bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm

IT Occupational Employment 1999-2002

Change in IT Occupational EmploymentNumber, 2001-2002

(50,000) (40,000) (30,000) (20,000) (10,000) - 10,000 20,000 30,000

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Off ice of Technology Policy analysis of data from U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Employment Survey, 2000-2002, http://w w w .bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm

Change in IT Occupational EmploymentPercentage, 2001-2002

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of data from U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Employment Survey, 2000-2002, http://w w w .bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm

Salary GrowthAnnual Average Salary Increases, 1995-2000

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%

Computer Systems Analysts and Scientists

Medical Scientists

Biological/Life Scientists

Chemists

Industrial

Chemical

Engineers, n.e.c.

Electrical/Eelectronic

Mechanical

Aerospace

All Workers

SOURCE: Department of Commerce analysis of U.S. Department of Labor, Current Population Survey (Annual Averages) data

Salary Growth in IT Occupations 1999-2002

$- $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000

20001999

Percent Salary Growth in IT Occupations 1999-2002, 2001-2002

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%

1999-20022001-2002

Unemployment RatesAverage Annual Unemployment

Engineers, IT Workers, Professional Specialties1983-2002

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Percent

EngineersComputer system analysts and scientistsComputer programmersProfessional specialities

NOTE: The labor force and unemployed reported above include only the experienced unemployed, classif ied by the occupation of their last job. Computer system analysts and scientists includes computer analyst, computer scientist, computer-systems planning, computer-systems analyst, data processing consultant, information scientist, softw are specialist, and other occupations. Computer system analysts and scientists are classif ied w ithin professional specialty occupations and computer programmers in technicians and related support occupations. Data for 2000-2002 have been revised to incorporate population controls f rom Census 2000.

IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012

Employment, Numbers

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

5,000,000

Professional ITOccupations

Engineers Life Scientists Physical Scientists Natural SciencesManagers

Employment Growth: Rate

Employment Growth: Numbers

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

Total Job Openings

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

Occupational Distribution of Projected S&E Job Openings(new jobs plus net replacements)

2002-2012

Natural Science

Managers

Information Technology

Engineers

Physical Scientists

Life Scientists

Job Growth: 2000-2010 vs. 2002-2012

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2000-2010

2002-2012

Change in Growth: 2000-2010 vs. 2002-2012

-1,200,000

-1,000,000

-800,000

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

200,000

Projected IT Job Growth 2010 vs. 2012 Projections

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

2010 2012 2012 if previous trend of 5.2% annualgrowth had continued

A reduction of more than 1 million jobs

A reduction of 1. 6 million jobs

Change in Total Openings: 2000-2010 vs. 2002-2012

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

2000-2010

2002-2012

S&E Bachelor’s DegreesLife Sciences Up...

...Engineering, Physical Sciences, and Math Down

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000

Biological/Agricultural Sciences

Psychology

Social Sciences

Physical Sciences

Engineering

Computer Science/Mathematics

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Engineering Bachelor’s Degrees…Half Empty or Half Full?

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

1985 1990 1995 2000

A 23 percent decline

since 1985…

…or a 53 percent increase since 1976?

Both, depending on your perspective…

010,00020,000

30,00040,00050,00060,000

70,00080,00090,000

1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998

The Market PerspectiveDegree Production vs. Projected Job Openings

Annual Degrees and Job Openings in Broad S&E Fields

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Engineering Physical Sciences Mathematical/Computer Sciences

Master's

Bachelor'sProjected Job Openings

SOURCES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics; degree data from Department of Education/National Center for Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey; and NSF/S RS: Survey of Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Average Job Openings derived from Department of Commerce (Office of Technology Policy) analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2002-2012 projections

EngineeringDegrees & Projected Job Openings

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Aero-/Astronautical

Chemical Civil Electrical* Industrial Mechanical Materials/Metallurgy**

PhDMaster'sBachelor'sProjected Job Openings

* Occupations include Electrical, Electronics, Computer Hardware Engineers** There are an additional 400 jobs per year for Material Scientists (not shown here; included in the "Other Physical Sciences" category)SOURCES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics; degree data from Department of Education/National Center for Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey; and NSF/SRS: Survey of Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Average Job Openings derived from Department of Commerce (Office of Technology Policy) analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2002-2012 projections

Physical SciencesDegrees & Projected Job Openings

10,000

12,000

Physics and Astronomy Chemistry Earth, Atmosphericand Oceanographic

Other Physical Science

Mathematics and Computer ScienceDegrees & Projected Job Openings

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Mathematics Computer science

Biological and Agricultural SciencesDegrees & Projected Job Openings

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Agricultural science Biological science

IT Education & Training LandscapeHow IT Workers Get and Maintain their Skills• IT Bachelor’s Degrees• IT-Related Minors• Combined IT Bachelors/Masters Degree Programs• IT-Related Masters of Science Programs• Techno MBAs• Two-Year IT Degrees at Community Colleges• IT Certificate Programs• Private, For-Profit Education and Training Institutions• Vendor and Vendor-neutral IT Certification• Federal, State and Regional IT Training Initiatives• Boot Camps and Seminars• Employer Programs• On-Line, CD-ROM, Books• The Churn

Professional Level IT Workers Hold a Wide Array of Science, Engineering and Other Degrees

Professional Level ITWorkers

IT Degrees, including:Computer & information sciences, generalComputer scienceComputer systems analysisInformation services and systemsOther computer and information sciencesComputer and systems engineeringComputer programming

Engineeringother than Computer and Systems Engineering

Natural Sciences

Mathematics

Social Sciences

Business

Of professional level IT workers

who hold bachelor's or higher level

degrees,87.5%

hold degrees in science, math or engineering

Educational Background of Professional-level IT Workers

Possible Niche Areas of Need

• Emerging Disciplines

• Converging Disciplines

• Industries Affected by Past/Current Federal Demand

• University Professors in High Demand Disciplines

• Federal S&E Employees: Unique Challenges

• Industries with Past Workforce Shocks

Challenge to the Community:

Action• Amplify Market Signals

• Industry Feedback to Post-Secondary Institutions• Post-Secondary Institutions’ Responsiveness to Market

Demands• Preparation for industry careers• Technical skills in demand• Soft and business skills

• Career Awareness in Middle, High School• Dissemination of Occupational Data

• Demand, job characteristics, unemployment, etc.

• Improve Math and Science Education in K-12

Challenge to the Community:

Action• Math and Science Education in K-12• Image of Scientists and Engineers• S&E Career Awareness in Middle, High School• Industry Feedback to Post-Secondary

Institutions• Post-Secondary Institutions’ Responsiveness

to Market Demands• Industry Must Help Itself

Challenges to Growing Domestic S&E Workforce

• Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in S&E vs. Law, Business

Registered Time from Baccalaureate to Doctoratefor Physical Sciences, Engineering, and Life Sciences, 2001

Physical Sciences* Engineering Life Sciences Law School MBA

Median Age

30.6Median Age

31.2Median Age

• Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in S&E vs. Law, Business• Attractiveness of Careers in S&E vs. Law, Business• Strong Emphasis by Other Nations, Cultures on S&E Education

• Access to Foreign Labor in the U.S. (H-1B, L1)• Access to Foreign Labor Abroad (Offshoring—direct and through

contract)• Significantly lower salary costs• Pools of well-educated S&E talent• Improved national infrastructure, political stability

• Large Government, Industry Focus on Health R&D

Factors Supporting U.S. Ability to Grow Domestic S&E Workforce

• Premier Academic Research Institutions• Elite Students Among Best in World• Powerful Industrial Base, Potential Partners

in S&E Education and Training• Money Talks!

Contact Information

John F. SargentSenior Policy Analyst

Office of Technology Policy, Technology Administration

U.S. Department of Commerce202-482-6185

jsargent@ta.doc.govwww.ta.doc.gov

Census Bureau Projections Thru 2100U.S. Race/Ethnic Composition, numbers

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

(in th

WhiteBlackAmerican IndianAsian and Pacific IslanderHispanic

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of U.S Census Bureau Data, Population Projections, http://WWW.CENSUS.gov/population/www/projections/natsum-T5.html

Census Bureau Projections Thru 2100U.S. Race/Ethnic Composition, percent

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

WhiteBlackAmerican IndianAsian and Pacific IslanderHispanic

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of U.S Census Bureau Data, Population Projections, http://WWW.CENSUS.gov/population/www/projections/natsum-T5.html

Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded, by Gender

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

WomenMen

S&E Bachelor’s Degrees, by GenderBachelor's Degrees in Various S&E Disciplines As a Percent of

All Bachelor's Degrees Earned By That GenderBy Gender 2000

Engineering ComputerSciences

Earth, Atmos.& OceanSciences

PhysicalSciences

Mathematics SocialSciences

BiologicalSciences

Psychology

MenWomen

1.9:1 1.5:1

Women’s Share of MEPS Bachelor’s Degrees Growing, Still Comparatively Low

1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 2000

WomenMen

Share of Bachelor's Degrees in Physical Sciences, Engineering, Computer Science, Mathematics

by Gender, 1966-2000

Share of Bachelor’s Degrees in Each Field Earned by Women, 2000

Percentage of All Degrees Awarded in Each Field Earned by Women2000

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Social Sciences

Psychology

Earth, Atmos. & Ocean Sciences

Computer Science

Physical Sciences

Engineering

Total S&E

Non-S&E Fields

All Fields

Share of Total U.S. S&E Bachelor’s Degrees

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000

(Percent, Native A

mericans)

Underrepresented Minorities' Share of Total U.S. Science and Engineering Bachelor's Degrees

Citizens and Permanent Residents, 1991-2000

S&E Bachelor’s Degrees, by RaceBachelor's Degrees in Various S&E Disciplines

As a Percent of All Bachelor's Degrees Earned By That GroupBy Race, 2000

Engineering Physical Science Mathematics Computer Science Biological Science

White, non-HispanicsAsians/Pacific IslandersBlack, non-HispanicsHispanicsAmerican Indians or Alaskan Natives

IT Occupational Growth Rate 5 Times Greater Than Natural Scientists, Engineers

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

IT, Natural Scientists and EngineersAverage Annual Employment Growth, 1996-2001

IT Occupations

Natural Scientists

Engineers

Occupational Growth RatesIT vs. All Occupations

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Computer systems analysts and scientists

All Occupations

Growth Rate of Professional-level IT Occupations Outstrips Growth Rate for All Occupations

Growth Rate of IT Occupations, All Occupations Since 1991

, SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics data, Current Population Survey 1990-2000, Household Data Annual Averages, Employed Persons

S&E Occupational Growth Dominated by Information Technology Occupations

Occupational Growth, 1996-2001

EEs Counted as S&E EEs counted as IT

(in th

nds) IT Occupations

S&E Occupations

SOURCE: Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics

S&E S&E

}4:113:1}

Total Bachelor’s Degrees in Engineering, Physical Sciences, Computer Science and Mathematics Stable

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 2000

Science and Engineering, MEPS as a Share of All Bachelor’s Degrees

1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 2000

Engineering, Physical Sciences, Computer Science and Mathematics

Science and Engineering

Strong correlation between Federal R&D investments in MEPS and bachelor’s degree production in MEPS fields

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

1955 1960 1965 1975 1985 19951970 1980 1990 2000

Dollars

Students

y = 21064 + 1.029x R 2= 0.953

1953-1968

90,000

80,000

30,000

70,000

60,000

50,000

40,000

10 20 30 40 50 60

40 45 50 55 60 65 70

y = -13561 + 2.4612x R2= 0.83663

1970-199850,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

Federal R&D, Non-Biomedicalconstant (1996)B$

Share of Total S&E Degrees Earned by Non-Resident Aliens, by Degree Level

Share of U.S. Degrees Earned By Non-Resident Aliens in 2000, by Degree Level

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

BS PhD BS PhD BS PhD BS PhD BS PhD

Engineering Physical Science

Mathematics Computer Science

BiologicalScience

U.S. Lags Other Nations in Share of 24-Year-Olds With Natural Science, Engineering Degrees

Also: The United States ranks 61st out of 63 nations in the share of S&E degrees as a total of all bachelor’s degrees.

john sargent senior policy analyst u.s. department of commerce

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