introduction to agile estimation & planning

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Plans are nothing; planning is everything.

Dwight D. Eisenhower

Introduction to Estimating and Planning in Agile

Natasha Hill & Amaad Qureshi

About us

Natasha Hill• Scrum Master• Agile Coach• Agile Enthusiast• Organiser – Psychology of Agile

Scrum Meet-up Group

Amaad Qureshi• Business Development Manager• Certified ScrumMaster• Certified Scrum Product Owner• Organiser – Agile Connexions

Meet-up Group• Co-organiser – Agile 101,

AppsJuction Meet-up Groups

Agenda

• Planning in Agile• Story points vs ideal days• Estimating techniques• Velocity

What is Estimation in Agile?

Estimation in Agile is a method of measuring how long it will take to complete a user story or a task.

What is a Story Point?

Story point is a relative measure of effort.

How tall are these buildings?

Great Pyramid CN Tower The Shard

Giza Paris Toronto Kuala Lumpur London Dubai

139.5m 324m 828m

553m 452m

Eiffel Tower Petronas Towers Burj Khalifa

How tall are these buildings?Relative vs absolute estimating

2

309m

Story Points

• Most popular in Agile• Relative measures of effort• Usually assigned using:

Fibonacci ( 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, ...) Modified Fibonacci ( 0, ½, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 100, ...) Powers of 2 ( 0, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, ...)

• Basic math properties apply5+5=10=5+3+2

How long?

We recommend estimating

Tasks

TasksTasks

Tasks

Tasks

Tasks

Tasks

TasksTasks

Tasks

Tasks

Tasks

Tasks

TasksTasks

Tasks

Tasks

Tasks

In T-shirt sizes In Story Points In Hours

Less detail More detail

Product Backlog

Less detail

More detail

Rowan Bunning @2013

How do we estimate?Planning Poker®- an iterative approach to estimatingSteps:• Each estimator has a deck of cards with estimates on them• A story is read and discussed briefly• Each estimator selects a card that’s his or her estimate• Cards are turned over so all can see them• Discuss differences• Re-estimate if necessary• Each card deck has: too large, break and ‘?’

Example

?

Planning poker®

Challenge: estimate the size of the animals in a zoo in story points

• Lion• Kangaroo• Rhinoceros• Bear• Giraffe• Gorilla• Hippopotamus• Tiger

Other estimation techniques• Gut feeling

• Triangulation

• Relative estimation

• Disaggregation

• Three, two, one...

42

Large = 31

2 31

2 = 12

2

When do we estimate?

Release planning

Iterationor sprint

Daily Planning

Refinement

Iteration Planning

Velocity• Units of work per iteration

• Can be planned and observed

• Takes a few iterations to stabilise

• Should not be used to measure progress or to compare teams

Iteration

1

1 3

1

3

1

2

Iterations

Velocity is measured in the units you use to estimate your user stories

Iteration planning

or iteration

Challenge: plan each iteration

1. Lion 202. Kangaroo 133. Rhinoceros 304. Koala Bear 55. Giraffe 406. Gorilla 207. Hippopotamus 308. Tiger 20

Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3

Iteration 4 Iteration 5 Iteration 6

4 zoo cleaners can do50 story points per iteration

Priority Story points

Capacity

Capacity = Number of people in the project x hours on the projecti.e. take away:

holidays, meetings,client’s issues,etc.

Iteration planning• Whole team• Look at historic velocity• Calculate capacity • Pick story by story, discuss• Commit to the right amount of work

Iteration Units of work

1 13

2 15

3 14

4 16

5 0

6 30

7 16

8 15

9 6

10 25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1005

101520253035

The more you estimate, the more accurate you will get!

velo

city

velo

city

iterations

iterations

Retrospective

Free Resources• Trello.com – Free organizing tool, great for backlogs and story boards

• Planning Poker.com• Pointingpoker.com• Mountaingoatsoftware.com• Romanpichler.com

Credits

• Images: © Mike Cohn, 2015• Mountaingoatsoftware.com• Book:

QA

Natasha_hill@hotmail.comAmaad@learningconnexions.com

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