alternatives to agile estimation
TRANSCRIPT
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Alternatives toAgile Estimation
Neil Killick
@neil_killick #NoEstimates
neilkillick.com
$$$
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"As a software practitioner...
I want to shift focus onto delivering value to stakeholders & customers and away from estimating...
So that I am empowered to make the right decisions & build the right thing"
#NoEstimates is not refusing to estimate. It's about asking if there is a better way.
#NoEstimates
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How long will this project take?How much will it cost?Should we go ahead?
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Projects clump valuable things
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What about emergent value?Welcoming change?
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Where does value end?
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How useful is an accurate estimate? Say $400-600k?
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Let's consider a project with a real budgetary constraint
What can we build for $500k?
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Fixed team, Time = Money$500k buys us 6 months
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"Let's build something for $100k"
● Creativity
● Drip fund
● Deliver early & often
● Inspect & adapt
Small bets
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The "project"
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De-clump!
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Prioritise intosmall releases
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Release 1 (min slice thru requirements)
Release 2
Release 3+
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Take top 2 or 3 stories from R1
Iteration 1The rest
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Make stories "small" JIT
Don't get bogged down!
Natural to break down work into chunks when working in iterations
Learn how to do this effectively
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How do we knowit's "small"?
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1. Are there >1 acceptance criteria?
2. Are there >1 use cases or user scenarios?
3. What is the simplest technical solution (e.g. "hamburger method")
Slice n' DiceSmall = Simple, Unambiguous
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Why not story points?
Risky to say "not small is OK"
Shifts focus from value to estimated cost
Getting better at estimating delivers no value
Velocity metric gets abused
Release scope going up?
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Story points lull us into a
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We value empirical measurementover Guesses
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Counting storiesIn Progress DoneReady
Backlog(options) R1
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Visualise Cycle TimeIn Progress DoneReady
Backlog(options)
2 wks
3 wks
4 wks
Cycle time = 7/5 = 1.5 weeks
R1
4
3
5+
Help PO understand the devastating impact of WIP
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Constraints force DecisionsIn Progress DoneReady
Backlog(options)
2 wks
3 wks
4 wks
● Upcoming stories usually smaller● Work not done is only "options"● Until PO decides to implement, size
doesn't matter
?
?
R1
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We valueDelivering over Estimating
● Tech infrastructure must support rapid delivery
● Capability crucial, despite biz reluctance to release
● Continuous delivery reduces "need" for estimatesDevOps
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Towards #NoEstimates
● Small releases; Minimum features
● Don't accept >1 point; Slice n' Dice
● Shorten delivery cycles; Decisions
● Don't rely on estimates; Measure
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Embrace the delicious uncertainty of software design and development
Make the uncertain... certain(delivery dates & cost)
Real constraints inspirecreative solutions to problems
Ask yourself why you estimate andwhat you use the estimates for
#NoEstimates
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Hands up!Who here estimates?
Who chooses to estimate?Who doesn't estimate?
Questions?
● Portfolio level estimation● 5 potentially valuable projects,
only 1 team● How would you proceed without
estimates?● Volunteers to start