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IntroductionIntroduction
CatalystsCatalysts
GAOGAO
ConclusionConclusion The Cost of Filling Up: Did the FTC Approve Too Many Petroleum Industry Mergers?
Rayola Dougher
Manager, Energy Market Issues
American Petroleum Institute
IntroductionIntroduction
CatalystsCatalysts
GAOGAO
ConclusionConclusion
Benefits of mergers
Efficiency improvements
Economies of scale
Refining and marketing margins down
Savings passed along to consumers
Market is healthy and very competitive
Introduction
IntroductionIntroduction
CatalystsCatalysts
GAOGAO
ConclusionConclusion
The cost of filling up has gone up. The question is why?
Introduction
$0.77$1.17
$0.54
$0.61
$0.44
$0.39
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
1990 March 21, 2005
(per
gal
lon
co
nst
ant
2005
$)
TaxesMfg/MktCrude
$2.15
$1.77
IntroductionIntroduction
CatalystsCatalysts
GAOGAO
ConclusionConclusion
Profits about average compared to U.S.
5.4% 5.6%
7.2% 7.0%
Last 5 Years 2004
Profit Margins (net income/sales)
All U.S. Industry Oil & Natural Gas
Introduction
IntroductionIntroduction
CatalystsCatalysts
GAOGAO
ConclusionConclusion
Overview
Catalysts for changeRegulatoryEconomic
GAO report
Causality
Crude prices
Refinery utilization rates
Inventory assumptions
Introduction
IntroductionIntroduction
CatalystsCatalysts
GAOGAO
ConclusionConclusion
From 2 gasoline formulations to 17Catalysts
IntroductionIntroduction
CatalystsCatalysts
GAOGAO
ConclusionConclusion
Return on investment(net income/net investment in place)
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
201
99
0
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
03
pe
rce
nt
Standard & Poors Industrials Refining & Marketing
20
02
Catalysts
IntroductionIntroduction
CatalystsCatalysts
GAOGAO
ConclusionConclusion
Producing more gasoline with fewer refineries
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 2000 2003
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Number of refineries
Gasoline production
Billions gallonsCatalysts
IntroductionIntroduction
CatalystsCatalysts
GAOGAO
ConclusionConclusion
Gasoline refining and marketing margins have been trending downward
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
20
05
ce
nts
pe
r g
all
on
Catalysts
IntroductionIntroduction
CatalystsCatalysts
GAOGAO
ConclusionConclusion
Problems with the GAO report
GAO report
Causality
Crude prices
Refinery utilization rates
Inventory assumptions
GAO
IntroductionIntroduction
CatalystsCatalysts
GAOGAO
ConclusionConclusion
Refiner’s costs—GAO left out 34% of equation
Before After = GAO attributes to merger impact
Refiner’s rack price less crude price
Refiner's Rack Price
Crude 66%
Energy 2%Services 6%Labor 6%Capitol 20%
GAO assumed these costs were constant. They are not.
GAO
IntroductionIntroduction
CatalystsCatalysts
GAOGAO
ConclusionConclusion
Refiner margins differ by crude price
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
2004
in
flat
ion
-ad
just
ed c
ents
per
gal
lon Domestic Imported WTI
GAO
IntroductionIntroduction
CatalystsCatalysts
GAOGAO
ConclusionConclusion
Which crude price makes a big difference
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 GAO
(infla
tion
-ad
just
ed
20
04
ce
nts
pe
r g
allo
n)
WTI-Imported WTI-Domestic GAOGAO
IntroductionIntroduction
CatalystsCatalysts
GAOGAO
ConclusionConclusion
GAO – Data problems and limitations
Correlated NATIONAL refinery utilization rates with CITY rack prices
Inventory assumptions neglect:
more costly summer blends
price of crude
decline in inventories
GAO
IntroductionIntroduction
CatalystsCatalysts
GAOGAO
ConclusionConclusion
The cost of filling up has gone up, but not because of mergers
Conclusion
$0.77$1.17
$0.54
$0.61
$0.44
$0.39
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
1990 March 21, 2005
(per
gal
lon
co
nst
ant
2005
$)
TaxesMfg/MktCrude
$2.15
$1.77
IntroductionIntroduction
CatalystsCatalysts
GAOGAO
ConclusionConclusion
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