igp forecast assumptions working group - hawaiian electric · 5/22/2019  · igp forecast...

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2 IGP Forecast Assumptions Working Group

May 22, 2019, 8:30 am to 3:00 pm

Time Perspectives Speaker Organization

Welcome and Introductions 8:30 am - 8:55 am Joanne Ide Hawaiian Electric

Paul De Martini Newport Consulting Group

Distributed Energy Resources 8:55 am - 9:45 am Customer Keith Yamanaka US Army Garrison-Hawai‘i

Tracy Tonaki DR Horton Schuler Homes Hawai‘i

Kevin Chock RHA Energy Partners

9:50 am - 10:40 am Policy/Consultancy Benjamin Sigrin NREL

Thomas Maslin IHS Markit

Marc Asano Hawaiian Electric

Dennis Lee Hawaiian Electric

10:40 am - 10:50 am

10:50 am - 11:40 am Industry Chris DeBone Hawaii Energy Connection

Marco Mangelsdorf ProVision Solar, Inc.

Robert Harris Sunrun

Break for Lunch 11:40 am - 12:10 pm

10 Minute Break

Lunch - 30 Minutes

3 IGP Forecast Assumptions Working Group May 22, 2019, 8:30 am to 3:00 pm

Time Perspectives Speaker Organization

Break for Lunch 11:40 am - 12:10 pm

Distributed Energy Resources 12:10 pm - 1:00 pm Program Administrator Ian Morikawa Hawaiian Electric

Gregg Kresge Maui Electric

Sue Lee Hawai‘i Electric Light

Electrification of Transportation1:00 pm - 1:55 pm Customer Roger Morton Oahu Transit Service

Dan Ahuna Roberts Hawaii

Rob Mora Lyft

1:55 pm - 2:05 pm

2:05 pm - 2:45 pm Industry Kurt Speas Tony Nissan

Amber Stone Aloha Charge

Wrap up 2:45 pm - 3:00 pm Joanne Ide

10 Minute Break

Lunch - 30 Minutes

Our forecast is developed in layers. 4

Energy Efficiency

Underlying Sales Forecast at Forecast Customer Level

Distributed Electrification Energy of

Resources Transportation

Forecast will be further modified by demand response (DR) and controllable DER.

Illustrative Example

FAWG – Composition 5

Core Group

DER Experts

Energy Efficiency

Experts

EoT Experts

Economy Experts

6 IGP Forecast Assumptions Working Group

May 22, 2019, 8:30 am to 3:00 pm

Time Perspectives Speaker Organization

Welcome and Introductions 8:30 am - 8:55 am Joanne Ide Hawaiian Electric

Paul De Martini Newport Consulting Group

Distributed Energy Resources 8:55 am - 9:45 am Customer Keith Yamanaka US Army Garrison-Hawai‘i

Tracy Tonaki DR Horton Schuler Homes Hawai‘i

Kevin Chock RHA Energy Partners

9:50 am - 10:40 am Policy/Consultancy Benjamin Sigrin NREL

Thomas Maslin IHS Markit

Marc Asano Hawaiian Electric

Dennis Lee Hawaiian Electric

10:40 am - 10:50 am

10:50 am - 11:40 am Industry Chris DeBone Hawaii Energy Connection

Marco Mangelsdorf ProVision Solar, Inc.

Robert Harris Sunrun

Break for Lunch 11:40 am - 12:10 pm

10 Minute Break

Lunch - 30 Minutes

7 IGP Forecast Assumptions Working Group May 22, 2019, 8:30 am to 3:00 pm

Time Perspectives Speaker Organization

Break for Lunch 11:40 am - 12:10 pm

Distributed Energy Resources 12:10 pm - 1:00 pm Program Administrator Ian Morikawa Hawaiian Electric

Gregg Kresge Maui Electric

Sue Lee Hawai‘i Electric Light

Electrification of Transportation1:00 pm - 1:55 pm Customer Roger Morton Oahu Transit Service

Dan Ahuna Roberts Hawaii

Rob Mora Lyft

1:55 pm - 2:05 pm

2:05 pm - 2:45 pm Industry Kurt Speas Tony Nissan

Amber Stone Aloha Charge

Wrap up 2:45 pm - 3:00 pm Joanne Ide

10 Minute Break

Lunch - 30 Minutes

Next Steps 9

Economic Outlook Meetings

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2019 2020

Assemble Working Group

Kick-Off Meeting March 13

Panel Discussion on DER, EE, EoT

May 22 and 23

Forecast Methods

Assumptions, Sensitivities & Scenarios Review

Preliminary Forecast

Finalize Forecast

Update Forecast as Needed

10 IGP Forecast Assumptions Working Group

May 23, 2019, 8:30 am to 2:00 pm

Time Perspectives Speaker Organization

Welcome and Introductions 8:30 am - 8:55 am Joanne Ide Hawaiian Electric

Paul De Martini Newport Consulting Group

Electrification of Transportation 8:55 am - 9:55 am Policy/Consultancy Matteo Muratori National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Thomas Maslin IHS Markit

Jimmy Yao Hawaiian Electric

Energy Efficiency 9:55 am - 10:45 am Customer Keith Yamanaka US Army Garrison-Hawaii

Richard Chinen KTA Super Stores

Grant Chun Hale Mahaolu

10:45 am - 10:55 am

10:55 am - 12:00 pm Program Admin/Design Caroline Carl Hawai‘i Energy

Ramsey Brown Hawai‘i Energy

Ted Pope 2050 Partners

Gwen Yamamoto-Lau Hawai‘i Green Infrastructure Authority

Break for Lunch 12:00 pm - 12:30 pm

10 Minute Break

Lunch - 30 Minutes

11 IGP Forecast Assumptions Working Group May 23, 2019, 8:30 am to 2:00 pm

Time Perspectives Speaker Organization

Break for Lunch 12:00 pm - 12:30 pm

Energy Efficiency / Demand Response 12:30 pm - 1:30 pm Policy/Consultancy Yoh Kawanami Hawaiian Electric

Yvette Maskrey Honeywell Smart Grid Solutions

Ingrid Rohmund Applied Energy Group

Q&A

Electrification of Transportation 1:35 pm - 1:50 pm Policy/Consultancy Matteo Muratori National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Wrap up 1:50 pm - 2:00 pm Joanne Ide Hawaiian Electric

Lunch - 30 Minutes

12

Trends and Barriers to DER Deployments

Ben Sigrin, Paritosh Das, Sam Koebrich,Kevin McCabe, Ashwin Ramdas

5/22/19

NREL | 2

NREL at a Glance

1,700 $40National economic 0impact M annually

Approximate Operating

Budget

Employees, plus

early-ca4 m

0ore

0 than

reer researchers and visiting scientists

750nearly

\

Partnerships with industry, academia, and

government

National econom ic im pact

World-class facilities, renowned technology experts

Campus campus operates

as a living laboratory

What role do DERs play in a modern power system?

Our group’s research focuses on understanding the role of DERs in the power system, forecasting their adoption, and understanding customer behavior.

We develop the dGen model, a capacity expansion model for DERs. We have been involved in several institutional resource planning and renewable integration studies.

dGen is a spatial agent-based model that develops a unique profile for each customer in the territory to simulate their behavior. NREL | 3

Long-Term Trends in Renewable Energy

NREL forecasts that wind, solar, and storage prices will continue to decline, resulting in substantial deployment by 2050.

The forecasts are uncertain and sensitive to several factors, including RE costs, natural gas prices, and enacted policies. In particular, RE deployment is enabled by continued storage cost declines.

Sources: NREL 2018 Annual Technology Baseline, NREL 2018 Standard Scenarios, SunShot 2030 report NREL | 4

What motivates adoption of DERs?

Favorable economics appear to be the primary factor influencing consumer adoption of DERs. 78% of PV adopters said that lowering electricity costs was “extremely important” in their adoption decision.

Other factors that influence adoption include:

• Social influence from peers • Values and beliefs about tech. • Electrification of new loads

Sources: Sigrin et al 2014; Moezzi et al. 2016 NREL | 5

Barriers to high renewable penetration

• Curtailment of renewable generation

• System inertia

• Distribution grid limits and associated costs

• Modernizing rate design

• Land use and social acceptance

• Ensuring equitable access for all Increased system flexibility is key to reaching high levels of RE

penetration, and still may result in curtailment Denholm et al. 2016 NREL | 6

Thank you

Benjamin.Sigrin@NREL.gov

http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/dgen/ https://www.nrel.gov/solar/seeds/

www.nrel.gov

Rate Design

May 22, 2019

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Factors Considered in Rate Design

Provision of fair and equitable rates Simplicity, ease of understanding, and ease of implementation Encouragement of customer load management Among other factors

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Rate Design Guidance

“Unbundled” rate structures Capacity-based, fixed cost-based pricing Time-of-use and dynamic pricing structures New incentives to reduce curtailment of renewable energy Supplemental power supply pricing structure

4 4

Recent Activity

Separation of fuel and purchased energy from base rates Demand Charges Customer Charges Minimum Charges Commercial Time-of-Use Rates – Encourage mid-day usage – Discourage on-peak usage

5 5

Advanced Rate Design Strategy

Grid Modernization will enable more responsive time-variant rate designs and more practical widespread adoption of advanced rate designs Commission order: File by September 25, 2019 Minimum requirements: Summary of rate design efforts to date, including best practices; low income; enrollment mechanism; implementation; monitoring and validation; complement to the data access & privacy policy

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Takeaways

AMI will enable advanced rate designs Advanced Rate Design Strategy that will include stakeholder engagement

Hawaii’s EV Charging Experts

HECO Forecast Working GroupMay 2019Amber StoneVP of Business Development

WHO IS ALOHA CHARGE?

Our goal is simple.Going green is critical to Hawaii’s future. We want to do our part. Therefore, our goal is making the transition to electric vehicles as easy possible for both EV car buyers and station owners.

WHO IS ALOHA CHARGE?

Our goal is simple.Going green is critical to Hawaii’s future. We want to do our part. Therefore, our goal is making the transition to electric vehicles as easy possible for both EV car buyers and station owners.

We achieve this by offering top quality EV charging products at reasonable prices with unparalleled LOCAL service. Aloha Charge is the Hawaii's leading distributor of electric vehicle charging equipment and installation services.

SO HOW IS THE EV INDUSTRY REALLY DOING?

U.S. ELECTRIC VEHICLE SALES INCREASED BY 81% IN 2018

THERE WERE 361,307 ELECTRIC CARS SOLID IN THE U.S. IN 2018.

THERE ARE OVER 50 DIFFERENT EV CARS CURRENTLY AVAILABLE.

EVERY AUTOMAKER HAS AT LEAST ONE EV IN THE WORKS.

AND SEVERAL NEW CAR COMPANIES HAVE LAUNCHED –EXCLUSIVELY WITH ELECTRIC VEHICLES.

BUT WHAT ABOUT HAWAI’I?

HAWAI’I HAS THE HIGHEST DEPENDENCY ON FOSSIL FUELS IN THE NATION.

POLLUTION CONTINUES TO BE A HUGE CHALLENGE.

HAWAI’I HAS THE SECOND HIGHEST PER CAPITA EV ADOPTION RATE IN THE UNITED STATES – AND GROWING FAST.

HAWAI’I HAS ~9,100 EVS ON THE ROAD

HOWEVER, THERE ARE ONLY 516 PUBLIC CHARGING STATIONS.

OUR GOAL: To close the gap.

OUR GOAL: To close the gap.

… and help the entire state run on 100% renewable energy by 2045.

OUR GOAL: To close the gap.

… and help the entire staterun on 100% renewable energy by 2045.

But how do we do that?

EV CHARGING SOLUTIONS FOR EVERY

APPLICATION

• Level 1, Level 2 or DC Fast Charging

• Residential or Commercial

• Offices, Retail, Parking, Multi-family

GOVERNMENT ASSITANCE

•HB 1585: Established a rebate program for installation of EV Charging systems.○ $300k in 2019-2020 & $500K in 2020-2021○ PUC 3rd party designation - cover hardware, cover

infrastructure upgrade?• SB 1000: Requiring any new development (MFD more than

10 stalls, Commercial more than 20 stalls) to be pre-wired for EV Install○ Really important for future proofing

PRIVATE FUNDING DRIVERES

•HAWAII ENERGY AND ULUPONO REBATE PROGRAM○ Workplace & MFD○ $5k new install, $1,500 R&R single to dual port

• RETAIL○ Aloha Charge poll: over 700 people polled, 81% said

they were more loyal to businesses with EV Charging• MFD

○ Increase in overall property value

HOW HAWAII ELECTRIC COMPANIES HELP?

MFD Biggest Challenge Infrastructure Upgrade- Load Studies- Assistance setting up dedicated EV Charging panels

Commercial- Best location- Infrastructure upgrade

MOST IMPORTANTLY... KEEP THE CONVERSATION GOING

Hawaii’s EV Charging Experts

Mahalo!