history and the 21st century

History and the 21st Century

Legacies of the 20th century and the lost decade

Announcements Course is open for evaluations. Final lecture on Wed; sections DO meet this week Access to all lectures, open from this week for

review Review session, pre exam: May 12, 6:00 pm,

Maxwell Dworkin, G125 Final exam: May 15 (Sat), 2pm,

A-14: Emerson 104. E1851: Emerson 305

Japan and Asia/non-West

•Attractive idea of solidarity with Asia •prewar roots: Okakura Tenshin, others•Postwar efforts:

•Normalization with Korea, China•Aid to SE Asia, Africa

•Ongoing legacies of mistrust

•Comfort women•Nanjing massacre•POWs •textbooks

Asian relations today Good neighbors?

Economic integration, unprecedentedCultural connections, likewisePolitical cooperation on key issues: N.

Korea Yet, shadow of past present

Textbook revisions: downplaying wartime acts

Visiting the Yasukuni shrine A dangerous game of domestic, int’l

politics, among Korea, China, Japan

Political issues: the 1990s in haiku

クリントン

一人の間に

七総理 During the time

Of just one Clinton

Seven Prime Ministers

Politics of 1990s-00s: Toward 2 parties LDP loses majority, 1993, briefly to coalition Breakaway elements coalesce with portions of

JSP, others, to Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) LDP rebuilds, in alliance to Komeito (CGP),

under Koizumi’s leadership “Neo-liberal” agenda: financial deregulation (1995

“big bang” 1996; 2005 postal privatization”) Labor deregulation from 1999 Education deregulation Neo-nationalism, as well: Yasukuni visits

Politics of 1990s-00s: Toward 2 parties Post Koizumi floundering of LDP (in a

sense destroyed by Koizumi) Liberal Democrats vs. Democratic Party of

Japan (DPJ) Will DPJ popularity persist?

Hatoyama on defensive, backing off of promises

Social trends, issues: 1990s21st century New vocabulary: “divided society” (kakusa

shakai); “new poor” (nyuu pua): produces political backlash

Growing socio-economic inequality: winners/losers Income: ambiguous evidence

Soaring “poverty index”: proportion with income <50% of national average

Very low ratio of income of wealthiest 20% to poorest 20%, and not changing rapidly.

Contradiction of high “poverty index” and low ratio of rich/poor incomes

Top 20%Bottom 20%Japan: incomeratio

US Incomeratio

Top 20%Bottom 20%

Japan Povertyindex

13.5%

13.7%US Povertyindex

Aging Society

Economy: Japan’s “Lost Decade” and lessons for America

Prelude: The bubble era, 1985-90

•Strong GNP: up 55% over the decade

•Gold leaf sushi wrap

•Land prices boom

Economy: Japan’s “Lost Decade” and lessons for America

The bubble bursts: 1991-->

Economy, 2003-2008•Relatively strong GDP growth:

2003-2007 annual growth

averages over 2%•Unemployment falls under 4%•Exports rise

•Especially to China

Explaining Japan’s “Lost Decade” (ver. 1)

1. Systemic crisis:the bankrupt “1940ssystem”

•system that once worked,-developmental state-interfirm networks as dynamic-long-term labor commitments

•Stopped working? -rigid state role-ineffective finance system-inflexible corporate organization

Explaining Japan’s “Lost Decade” (ver. 2)

2. Policy failures drag down a gradually changing but still-viable system

•Slow response to financial crisis•Tax increase choked off recovery in ‘98•Eventually, through trial and error, got it right

Lost decade lessons for America?

negative

Lost decade lessonsfor America?

positive

Robert Feldman, Morgan StanleyResearch report, 11/27/2008