hanoi, january 27th 2015 rodolfo soncini sessa dei – politecnico di milano imrr project 2 –...

Hanoi, January 27th 2015

Rodolfo Soncini Sessa DEI – Politecnico di Milano

IMRR Project

2 – Framing the system/problem 

INTEGRATED AND SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT OF RED-THAI BINH RIVER SYSTEM

IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

The Design Problem

(It)

scenario

The Policy

control

informationfeasible control set

state

policy

(It)

control law

What is a policy?

h

06-15 08-21

110

101

110

u

t

w

110

t

h

u

w

t1

t1

Time = t1

flood

supply

Policy

t2

Time = t2

t2

t2

101

control law

Reservoirs policy =one cohordinated policy for the 4 reservoirs

Policy: a function mt(It) that at each day t, given the information It suggests the optimal release ut from the four strategic reservoirs.

The Design Objectives

(It)

objective

Evaluating the effects:

indicators and criteria hierarchyTo day 10:00 -11:00

The system model

(It)state exogenous input

Modeling the system 1-4To day and tomorrow

Strategic reservoirs

Hanoi

Scheme of RTBR system

Hoa Binh proper inflow

Son La (Ta Bu) and Hoa Binh proper inflows

a2t+1 = aHB

t+1- a1t

Hoa Binh proper inflow

Hoa Binh total inflow

Son La inflow = Ta Bu

Correlogram of Ta Bu and Hoa Binh recorded

flows (1961-1988)

Head water recorded data

Son La

Hoa Binh prop.

Yen Bay

Thac Ba

Ham Yen

Tuyen Quang

Historical horizon1961 - 2010

Reconstruction of Thac Ba inflow

Scheme of RTBR system

DELTA

Hoa Binh proper inflow

The Delta ModelTomorrow 9:00 -10:00

The boundary conditions of the Delta model

Water demand

Minor river flows

The tide

Tyde patterns (Son Dong station)

Diurnal

Semi-diurnal

Center of mass of the Earth-Moon system

The tide

Tide pattern (at Hon Dau)

Spring tyde

Neap tyde

The intake points

The intake points

Gravity channels

Nhue canal at the end of the wet season

Nhue canal when the irrigation demand peaks

A pump served by a suction tank

How important is the tyde?

Hystorical flows and tyde

Hystorical flows + no tyde

2.3 meters at Hanoi + tyde

2.3 meters at Hanoi + no tyde

Comparison

2.3 at Hanoi

historical flow

HistoricalFlows +tyde

HistoricalFlows +no tyde

2.3 m at Hanoi+tyde

2.3 m at Hanoi+no tyde

52 Mcm+45%

2 Mcm

The tyde c

annot be n

eglected

The scenario

(It)

exogenous inputscenario

The scenario29th January

The Design Problem

(It)

scenario

The system model in the Design Problem

Modeling the system 4Tomorrow 10:15 -11:15

The Design Problem

(It)

scenario

Design algorithmTomorrow 11:15 -12:15

Thanks for your attention

XIN CẢM ƠN

SPARCE SLIDES

ICT To

ols

yes

Final (political) decision

reasonable alternatives

2. Conceptualisation

3. Designing Alternatives

4. Estimating effectsS

takeh

old

ers

1. Reconnaissance

5. Evaluation

noMitigation, and compensation,

Agreement?

PIP procedure

Participatory and Integrated Planning procedure

6. Comparison or negotiation

Problem formulationSetting the goal and identifying the constraints

Designing alternatives/options

Selecting the best compromise alternative

How to choose?