future place - smart cities vs. smarter citizens 30 03 16

FuturePlace|SmartCi0esvs.SmarterCi0zensInsightsfromMul0pleExpertDiscussions30March2016|Dubai Theworld’sleadingopenforesightprogram

FuturePlace|SmartCi0esvs.SmarterCi0zensThistalkprovidesasummaryofwhatweheardfrommul0pleexpert

voicesaroundtheworld–onhowci0esarechanging,whatisdrivingthischange,wherewillbetheimpactsandhowandwhythesemayevolveoverthenextdecade.

FutureAgendaTheFutureAgendaistheworld’slargestopenforesightprogram

thataccessesmul0pleviewsofthenextdecadesowecanallbebeKerinformedands0mulateinnova0on.

LookingForwardsOrganisa0onsincreasinglywanttoiden0fyandunderstand

boththean0cipatedandunexpectedchangessothattheycanbebeKerpreparedforthefuture.

FutureAgendainNumbersThefirstFutureAgendaprogrammeengagedawiderangeofviewsin

25countries.FutureAgenda2.0hasdoubledtheface-to-faceinterac0onandsignificantlyraisedonlinesharing,debateanddiscussion.

FutureAgenda1.01HOST16TOPICS25COUNTRIES50WORKSHOPS1500ORGANISATIONS

FutureAgenda2.050HOSTS24TOPICS45CITIESIN35COUNTRIES120WORKSHOPS5000ORGANISATIONS

FUTUREPLACE|DRIVERSOFCHANGE

ImbalancedPopula0onGrowthAgrowingpopula0onaddsanotherbillionpeoplebutitisalsorapidlyageing:achildbornnextyearwilllive6monthslongerthanoneborntoday.Whilemigra0onhelpstorebalance,increasingdependencyra0oschallengemany.

DevelopingWorldMobilityThisyear32peopleanhourwillbemovingintoShanghai,39intoKinshasaandJakarta,42intoMumbaiandKarachi,

50intoDhakaand58intoLagos.

Accelera0ngDisplacementClimatechange,conflict,resourceshortages,inequalityandpoli0calelitesunableorunwillingtobringaboutnecessarychangealltriggerunprecedentedmigra0ontotheNorth.Overthenext50years,asmanyas1billionpeoplecouldbeonthemove.

InfrastructureDeficitInfrastructureisagainbecomingasourceofcompe00veadvantage.

Emergingeconomiesinvestinnewrailroadsandhighwaysformoreeffec0vemovementofpeopleandgoods,whiledevelopedna0onssufferfrompoorlegacy.

Built-inFlexibilityThepathtoaconnected,accessibleanddistributedinfrastructureisfraughtwithcomplex,costlyandriskyissues:Upgradingandrepurposingsystemsto

makethemmoreopenanddesigningnewbuildingstobemoreflexiblearekey.

AccesstoTransportThewidespreadneedforindividualstotravelshortdistancesbecomesakeyfeatureofurbandesignandregenera0on.Plannersusetransport

infrastructuretoinfluencesocialchangeandlowercarbonliving.

AirQualityRisingairpollu0oninmanyci0esiskillingpeopleandbecomesavisiblecatalystforchangingmind-setsandpoliciesacross

health,energy,transporta0onandurbandesign.

FloodedCi0esThevastmajorityofourci0esarenotpreparedforflooding.Manydistrictsandhouseholdscannolongergetfloodinsuranceandareinjeopardy.

It’sgoingtogetworsebeforeitgetsbeKer.

BasicSanita0onPoorsanita0oncon0nuestoimpactpublichealthandrestrictsocialprogress,

par0cularlyforwomen.Governmentsanddonororganisa0onspriori0semeasurement,educa0onandinnova0oninabidtodrivechange.

Eco-Civilisa0onOverthepast40yearsChinahasgrownapace,mostlywithoutconcernfor

long-termenvironmentalimpacts.However,nowfacedwithmajorchallenges,abrightlightofsustainabledevelopmentisemerging.

Ci0zen-CentricCi0esSuccessfulci0eswillbedesignedaroundtheneedsanddesiresofincreasinglyempoweredandenabledci0zens-whoareexpec0ngpersonalizedservicesfromtheorganisa0onsthatservethem.

IntraCityCollabora0onIncreasingcompe00onbetweenci0esoverridesna0onalboundariesanddrives

change.TheycompetetoaKractthebestbutalsocollaboratetoavoidthedownsideofsuccess–over-crowding,under-resourcingandpollu0on.

EverythingConnectedOver1trillionsensorsareconnectedtomul0plenetworks:everythingthatcanbenefitfromaconnec0onhasone.Wedeliver10,000xmoredata100xmoreeffec0velybutareconcernedaboutthesecurityoftheinforma0onthatflows.

Off-GridPeoplelivingoff-grid,byinequalityorchoice,canexacerbatesocietaldivisionorimproveprivacy,healthandwellbeing.Eitherway,doingsoprovidesfer0legroundforinnova0on.

FUTUREPLACE|SMARTCITIESvs.SMARTERCITIZENS

Paris–TheRoleModel?Formany,theblueprintforthesustainable,livablecity

isParis:ManyurbanplannersandarchitectsseethisasahighlyefficientandsocialurbanmodelthatisaKrac0vetoresidents.

FromCarsToPeopleWeareseeingashifoffocusfromci0esdesignedforcarstoci0es

designedforpeople.TheinfluenceoftheBig3carmakersandmajoroilcompaniesisgivingwaytoanewgroupofauthorita0vebodies.

AutonomousVehiclesTheshiftofullyautonomoustransportisanevolu0onviatruckplatoonsonhighwaysandsmallurbandeliverypods.Connectedcarscreatethenetworkandtestthetechnologiesfortheeventualrevolu0onarydriverlessexperience.

Amsterdam–PeopleCentricTransportOfenseenasEurope’smostsustainablecity,Amsterdamisthegloballeaderinsuppor0ngnon-motorizedtransport.70%ofmobilityinAmsterdamiseitherwalkingorcycling.

TheSmartCityIdealManyseetheperfectsmartcitytobeonewhererenewableenergy

systems,effec0vetransportnetworksanddigitalinfrastructuresallaligntocreateasuper-efficientsustainableenvironmentforeveryone.

GlobalDriversofChangeInthepastfewyearswehaveseenclearprogressontheSmartCi0esambi0on–muchofwhichhasbeenfocused

oncollabora0onwithsomekeymul0na0onals.

Cisco|SongdoSongdoinKoreahasembracedCisco’s‘Smart+Connected’viewofthecity.

Ubiquitousdatasharing,automatedbuildings,high-speednetworksandpervasiveinterac0onareallpartoftheconnectedideal.

IBM|RiodeJaneiroIBM’sSmarterCi0es/SmarterPlanetini0a0vehasbeenembracedbymayorsinmanykeyci0es:Massivesensornetworks,cloud-basedstorageandpredic0veanaly0cshaveallbeencomingtothefore.

Intel|SanJoseIntel’scollabora0onwiththecityofSanJoseisademonstratorof

thecapabilityofthe‘InternetofThings’focusedonimprovingairquality,noisepollu0onandtrafficflowsviaamoreconnectedinfrastructure.

Siemens|MasdarAlthoughwellbehindschedule,Masdariss0llaimingtobeoneofthemostsustainable,environmentalandsmartci0esontheplanet.Keypartnerships

withSiemensarefocusedonmoreeffec0ve,lowenergysystems.

SmarterCi0zensAbigques0onhoweverconcernshowmuchci0escanbeintelligentin

themselvesvs.enablingci0zenstobemoreinformed,takebeKerdecisionsandsopar0cipatemoreinthedevelopmentandexecu0onofkeystrategies.

PervasiveSmartPhonesAtthecore,1bn‘always-connected’smartphonesandtheassociatedhighspeedwirelessnetworksareenablingafundamentalshifin

howpersonaldataisgenerated,sharedandusedglobally.

Predic0veAnaly0csTheminingand(re)combina0onofmul0pledisparatedatasourcestomodelandanalyzecurrentandhistoricalfactsisalreadyenablingmore

organisa0onstobeKeran0cipateandshareemergentneeds.

Singapore–UrbanMobilityWithitspopula0ondoubling,Singaporeseesmasstransitasacoredriverforamoreeffec0vecity–By2030,80%ofhouseholdswillbewithina10

minutewalkofatrainsta0onand75%ofjourneyswillbeonpublicsystems.

NewYork–EngagedCi0zensAsthepioneerinprovidingopenconnec0vityforall,NewYorkhasbeenahot-spotforthedevelopmentofci0zenbasednetworks:TheBryantParkRestora0onCorpora0onwasoneofthefirstcatalystsforchange.

London–OpenDataLondonhasmoreopenpublicdatasetsthananyotherEuropeancity.Itisfastbecomingaleadingcentreformoreintelligentuseofsharedinforma0onforgreatercollabora0onandbeKerdecisionmaking.

TheValueofDataAsorganisa0onstrytoretainasmuchinforma0onabouttheircustomersaspossible,databecomesacurrencywithavalueandaprice.Ittherefore

requiresamarketplacewhereanythingthatisinforma0onisrepresented.

Christchurch–SensingCityFollowingthe2011earthquake,ChristchurchinNewZealandistakingadvantage

ofanunprecedentedopportunitytorethinkthecityandisintroducingintegratedsensornetworkstoimprovedatasharing.

Floa0ngCi0esThetenmost‘atriskci0es’fromclimatechangegloballyalreadyhaveacombinedpopula0onofover150mandareprojectedtohavegrownbya

further50%by2025–Few,ifany,willbeinsured.

DifferentCi0es–DifferentSolu0onsInseekingnewmodels,organisa0onssuchasShellhaverecognisedthatglobalchallengesrequirelocalsolu0ons-butdifferentcitytypescan

alsoadoptsimilarapproachestoimprovingefficiency.

FUTUREPLACE|IMPLICATIONS

Data-ConsciousCi0zensTheneedforci0zenstounderstandhowdataisusedwillgrow.Educa0onwillbeneededtocombatnewinequali0es,andenablepeopletofullytakepartinsociety:

understandingdatawillbecomepartofcivicself-consciousness.

DeeperCollabora0onPartnershipsshiftobecomemoredynamic,long-term,democra0sed,

mul0-partycollabora0ons.Compe0toralliancesandwiderpublicpar0cipa0ondriveregulatorstocreatenewlegalframeworksforopen,empathe0ccollabora0on.

“Ci0eshavethecapabilityofprovidingsomethingforeverybody,onlybecause,andonlywhen,theyarecreatedbyeverybody.”JaneJacobs-TheDeathandLifeofGreatAmericanCi9es

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