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Four Things to Know In Times of Resource Constraints

Mathis Wackernagel, Ph.D. Colle di Val d'Elsa, 7 June 2010

Biocapacity per person

Ecological Footprint

4 things you need to know…

1.Global Trends (with local impacts)2.Link to Climate (2 scenarios)3.National Trends4.Fear your Eco-Deficit (or what’s your

country’s “Optimum Resource Consumption”?)

Humanity’s Ecological Footprint (1961 onwards)

Tragedy of the Commons(shrink & share)

Political suicide

Tragedy of the Commons

(shrink & share)

Tragedy of the Com

mons

(shrink & share)

Tragedy of the Comm

ons

(shrink & share)

Tragedy of the Commons

(shrink & share)

Tragedy of the Commons(shrink & share)

The Comedy of Common Sense

EITHER: 350 ppm ~ 2° C

OR: 1700 ppmYes, but…

Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors

Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors

Mathis’ life (1962 – onwards)

Annual deficit adds up to a global ecological debt

UN’s Most Moderate ScenarioMathis’ life

Bill

ion

2003

glo

bal h

ecta

res

10

Long-term waste

302050 is being built today (as a trap or an opportunity)

Biocapacity per person

Ecological Footprint

The Ecological Footprint and biocapacity (per capita) of three countries from 1961-2005. A country runs

an

if its Footprint exceeds what its ecosystems can renew. The deficit is made up through net-imports, net-carbon emissions to the global atmosphere, or local resource degradation.

Switzerland

Ecological Footprint

Ecological Footprint

Biocapacity per person

Biocapacity per person

Uganda IranBiocapacity per person

Ecological Footprint

ecological deficit

Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in AfricaEcological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005

What do these graphs show?

All 24 African countries are rapidly loosing per-capita biocapacity.

Four (blue-shaded) countries have assets that allow them to have a net-import and to burn significant quantities of fossil fuel.

Twelve (yellow-shaded) countries’development is limited by their declining biocapacity, leading to SEVERE conflicts.

Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in EuropeEcological Footprint and Biocapacity PER CAPITA,1961-2005

HU

DKATDE

ES

RO

SECH

IT

PT

NL

FR

PO

GR

RU

BE

FI

UK

IR

SK

CZ

BY

RS UA

Kenya 1961-today

From nicety to necessity…

4 Contributions4 Contributions

EyjafjallajökullEffect

350 ppm ~ 2° C

1700 ppm

The Ecological Footprint and biocapacity (per capita) of three countries from 1961-2005. A country runs

an

if its Footprint exceeds what its ecosystems can renew. The deficit is made up through net-imports, net-carbon emissions to the global atmosphere, or local resource degradation.

Switzerland

Ecological Footprint

Ecological Footprint

Biocapacity per person

Biocapacity per person

Uganda IranBiocapacity per person

Ecological Footprint

ecological deficit

Biocapacity

Ecological Footprint

Shrinking Ecological Credit

Increasing Ecological and Social Instability

Kenya, 1961 - today

Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors in Europe

HU

DKATDE

ES

RO

SECH

IT

PT

NL

FR

PO

GR

RU

BE

FI

UK

IR

Biocapacity per person

Ecological Footprint

Why

UAE?

How close are we today to attaining global sustainability?

Conventional belief

natio

nal b

ioca

paci

ty

Collapse

Sustainable path

From nicety to necessity…

Siena, ItalySiena, Italy

June 7June 7--1010

Footprint of Nations, 2005, per capita

2.1 gha

April 15th

April 16th

April 17th

April 15th April 16th April 17th April 18th April 19th

Today

Safe Level

The Eyjafjallajökull effect

April 15th April 16th April 17th April 18th April 19th

Today

Safe Level

The Eyjafjallajökull effect

April 15th April 16th April 17th April 18th April 19th

Today

Safe Level

The Eyjafjallajökull effect

April 15th April 16th April 17th April 18th April 19th

Today

?

Will we flyfor tomorrow?

Safe Level

The Eyjafjallajökull effect

April 15th April 16th April 17th April 18th April 19th

Today

Safe Level

The Eyjafjallajökull effect

?

?

Ecological Footprint compared to country's biocapacity

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

India

B business as usualH “Hopenhagen”

O ?? Optimum ??

Metabolism like a cow

Biocapacity per person

Ecological Footprint

Colonial WarMPLA / FNLA

UNITA formed

Civil war

Cease-fire

Soviet fall

Current composition of resource demand

Lisbon coup

Angola’s Footprint profile provides a kind of cross-sectional representation of the nation’s biocapacity demand for the period of record (1961-2005). Periods of relative stability are followed by a distinctreduction in reported biocapacity demand.

/ =PER CAPITA

ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT(DEMAND)

PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION

RESOURCE EFFICIENCY

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN

BIOLOGICAL DEMANDAND SUPPLY

PER CAPITABIOCAPACITY

(SUPPLY)xAREA

BIO-PRODUCTIVITY

/ POPULATION =

Five Factors

PIONEER COUNTRIES SO FARSwitzerland

JapanUnited Arab Emirates

BelgiumEcuador

LuxembourgFinland

EU

Bill

ion

2003

glo

bal h

ecta

res

10

Long-term waste

302050 is being built today (as a trap or an opportunity)

WBCSD Vision 2050 - Who’s in?

56WBCSD Vision 2050

15

What to do? Sustainability Wedges and an End to Overshoot (WBCSD)

Winning together

Navigating the rapids of

“peak everything”

susan@footprintnetwork.org

Global Footprint Network: Strategy and Operating Model

● Our Goal: To secure lasting human well-being by establishing the Ecological Footprint as a prominent, globally accepted metric on par with Gross Domestic Product.

● Our Data: We continue to improve the science of Ecological Footprint accounting, making our methods more transparent and robust, and publishing key supporting resources so the tool can be used widely.

● Our Partners: We are working with a rapidly-expanding network of partners (now numbering more than 90) from the grassroots to national governments, to support innovation and visionary thinking as we work together toward a sustainable human future.

● Our Role: By convening and challenging key thought leaders and decision makers, we are sparking a global conversation about how ecological limits will shape our economic future. Together, we evaluate the options cities, countries and companies have for securing long-term well-being. Emerging from this ongoing conversation, Global Footprint Network anticipates a shift of private and public investments into building a sustainable future for all.

Initiatives and Campaigns: Earth Overshoot DayEarth Overshoot Day 2009 fell on September 25. This was the day in the year by which humanity, in net-terms, had used all the resources and services nature was able to regenerate in 2009. For the rest of the year, humanity was living beyond its ecological means.

In 2009, humanity used 40 percent more ecological

services than the Earth renewed in that year.

This line represents 100% of the Earth’s regenerative capacity.

Initiatives and Campaigns: Human Development

● Goal: For all to live fulfilling lives, within the means of our planet.

● Tools: Two leading indicators have identified how we can get there:

- Ecological Footprint data tell us that, given the earth’s current population and available biocapacity, an Ecological Footprint of less than 2.1 global hectares per person indicates that a country’s resource demands globally replicable.

- The United Nations’ Human Development Index (HDI) measures a country’s average achievements in longevity, literacy and income. An HDI higher than 0.8 is considered “high human development”.

Mid-term goal: Ten-In-TenGoal: In 2005, we set ourselves the goal of institutionalizing the Ecological Footprint in at least 10 key

national governments by 2015. We are on track to surpassing our target. Currently, eight nations have adopted the Footprint in some capacity:● Switzerland● Wales and Scotland● United Arab Emirates● Japan ● Belgium● Ecuador● France● Luxembourg

The Ecological Footprint has been tested by: ● European Commission● Ireland● Germany● Finland● Canada

Our Advisory Council● David T. Suzuki ● Wangari Maathai ● E.O. Wilson ● James Gustave Speth ● Daniel Pauly ● Oscar Arias ● Julia Marton-Lefèvre● William Rees ● Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker ● Lester Brown ● M.S. Swaminathan ● Manfred Max-Neef● Herman E. Daly

● Rhodri Morgan ● Emil Salim ● Norman Myers ● Fabio Feldmann ● Jorgen Randers ● Terry A’Hearn● Dominique Voynet ● Michael Meacher ● Karl-Henrik Robèrt● Will Steffen ● Peter Raven ● Eric Garcetti

Global Footprint Network: Changing Humanity’s Course

We invite you to become part of our global effort to create a world where we can all live well, within the means of one planet.

More on the accounting method: www.footprintnetwork.or/atlas

visit www.footprintnetwork.orgemail mathis@footprintnetwork.orgcall +1 510-839-8879 x 305 (Mathis Wackernagel)fax: +1 510-251-2410

Oakland, CA, USA ● Brussels, Belgium ● Zürich, Switzerland

CARBON footprint

What is the Ecological Footprint?The Ecological Footprint is a measurement and decision tool that computes how much land and water area a human population requires to produce the resources it consumes and to absorb its CO2 emissions, using prevailing technology.

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Summary

In this era of climate change and emerging resource constraints, a country that does not know how much biocapacity it has and how much it uses will not be able to operate effectively. Companies need to understand this context as well.

Ecological Footprints track biocapacity – non-speculative accounting for countries, companies & projects.

Global Footprint Network wants 10 (and then 100) nations to adopt this accounting approach – like GDP or unemployment figures. Then countries will reduce their ecological deficit.

The Ecological Footprint

CARBON footprint

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PAST FUTURE

GDP

World GDP in Trillion $ per year

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

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PAST FUTURE

GDP

BAU

World GDP in Trillion $ per year

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

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PAST FUTURE

GDP

BAU

STERN

World GDP in Trillion $ per year

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

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PAST FUTURE

GDP

BAU

STERN

COLLAPSE

World GDP in Trillion $ per year

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

PAST FUTURE

GDP

BAU

STERN

COLLAPSE

STABILISATION

~ 600 tri $

World GDP in Trillion $ per year