fort collins science center
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U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Fort CollinsScience Center
Invasives Species Science Branch
Science and Management Priorities for Mitigating the Impacts of Buffelgrass Invasion
and Novel Fire Regimes in the Sonoran DesertFirst Annual Workshop, May 4-6, 2010 Tucson
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
National Park
Service
Bureau of Land
Management
Forest Service
DepartmentOf Defense
Fish & WildlifeService
ArizonaState LandsDepartment
Arizona State Parks
Arizona DOT
Pima CountyAdministrator
Pima CountyNR, Parks &Recreation
Pima CountyDOT
City ofTucson
Town ofOro Valley
Town ofMarana
Town ofSahuarita
PimaAssociationOf Gov’ts
Responsibility for Public Lands & Right-of-Ways in Pima County
Tohono O’dhamNation
U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey
Buffelgrass Scenarios for Ironwood Forest National MonumentTracy Holcombe, Leonardo Frid, Catherine Jarnevich
How can a DSS help? Resources are limited Alternative actions are expensive Lag time between actions and results How to get the highest return on investment?
$
Alternative decisions
Inventory - $$$$$Treatment - $$$$$$$$$Maintenance - $$$
Inventory - $$$$$$$$$$$Treatment - $$Maintenance - $$$$
OR? Where?
Multiple objectives
Public safetyBiodiversityTourismCost effective
Frid et al. ( in press) Invasive Plants
Science & Management
Buffelgrass SpreadRates at 11 sites
South slope Catalina Mts
Olsson, Betancourt, Marsh & Crimmins, In Review, Journal of Arid Environments
Calibrating Spread
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
1988 1998 2008
Year
Hec
tare
s
Actual (Aaryn)
Simulated (TELSA)
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1994 2000 2006
Year
Hect
ares
Actual (Aaryn)
Simulated (TELSA)
0.000.050.100.150.200.250.300.350.400.450.50
2002 2005 2008
Year
Hect
ares
Actual (Aaryn)
Simulated (TELSA)
Questions? What if control could happen in neighboring
areas? What if intensive surveys could be conducted
more frequently? What if budget could be increased? What if treatment effectiveness could be
increased? What would the cost be?
Questions?
How much buffelgrass is invading from neighboring lands?
What if volunteers were not available? What if budgets were interrupted so
treatment would only happen every two years?
Where is the biggest fire risk? Where would the most effective treatment to
reduce fire risk?
Model development process Biology of species
Growth, Spread and Mortality Management activities
Effectiveness Amount Cost
Scenarios Change management actives Change management amounts Change uncertainties
State and Transition Model
Current Buffelgrass Invasion Based on
survey data
Classified into categories listed
Ironwood Land Ownership
Remote = 1 mile from roads
Units here define management actions
Habitat suitability
Classifies landscape into three categories
Used to change max density, probability of establishment and spread
Scenarios run
No Management Current Management Double Budget
Manager allocated Manage everywhere
2022 2032 2042 2052 20620
200400600800
100012001400160018002000
CurrentManagementNoManagementDoubleBudgetManageEverywhereMortality-CurrentManagement
Year
Area
Inva
ded
(ac)
2022 2032 2042 2052 20620
200400600800
100012001400160018002000
CurrentManagementNoManagementDoubleBudgetManageEverywhereMortality-CurrentManagement
Year
Area
Inva
ded
(ac)
2022 2032 2042 2052 20620
200400600800
100012001400160018002000
CurrentManagementNoManagementDoubleBudgetManageEverywhereMortality-CurrentManagement
Year
Area
Inva
ded
(ac)
2022 2032 2042 2052 20620
200400600800
100012001400160018002000
CurrentManagementNoManagementDoubleBudgetManageEverywhereMortality-CurrentManagement
Year
Area
Inva
ded
(ac)
2022 2032 2042 2052 20620
200400600800
100012001400160018002000
CurrentManagementNoManagementDoubleBudgetManageEverywhereMortality-CurrentManagement
Year
Area
Inva
ded
(ac)
No Management
No management No mortality
Management InputManagement Activity <5% 5 to
50% >50% >50 partial
Cost Per Acre
Acres Per Yr
Incidental Inventory 1% 50% 90% $0.06 12,000
Intensive Field Surveys 90% 90% 100% $0.10 129,000
Vehicle Mounted Spraying 50%* 50%* 50%* 25% $400.00 10
Backpack Spraying (accessible) 50% 50%* 50% 25%* $125.00 200
Volunteer Hand Pulling (accessible & remote) 90% 90% 90% 9% $68.64 40
Follow-up maintenance (volunteer remote) 100% NA NA $68.64 10
Follow-up maintenance (accessible) 100% NA NA $112.00 80
Effectiveness by percent cover
*Have updated values not yet incorporated
Current Management10-yr time step2022-2062
No Management vs Current
Area Invaded
2022 2032 2042 2052 20620
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
No Management Current Management Double Budget Manage Everywhere
Year
Acre
s In
vade
d
Cost of Treatment over 50 Years
Current Management Double Budget Management Everywhere0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
Tota
l Cos
t (M
illio
ns $
) afte
r 50
Year
s
Management Efficiency
Current Management Double Budget Manage Everywhere0
20
40
60
80
100
120An
nual
Cos
t ($)
per
Acr
e Pr
even
ted
NEXT STEPS
Acceptance of DSS as common framework If yes, how do we extend to all jurisdictions? Data and research needs (e.g., suitability,
spread parameters, treatment effectiveness) Consideration of short-term risks (fire) Who will run the models? (consultant, USGS,
agency staff) Usability (software & web user interface) Adoption of spreadsheet for regional planning
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