National Drought Mitigation Center

Overview of Drought Vulnerability Research and Planning in the North Central Region

Dr. Cody L. KnutsonNational Drought Mitigation CenterSchool of Natural ResourcesUniversity of Nebraska-Lincolncknutson1@unl.edu

“End-to-End”: research-applications-operations-outreach-service continuum working with users…

NDMC Drought and Impact Monitoring

NDMC Planning and Social Science Program AreaVulnerability Assessment and Planning

Farmers/ranchers - Communities - Watersheds - States

• Questions: sustainable farmer and holistic rancher’s definitions of sustainability; effects of 2002-2004 drought; response/adaptation strategies implemented; use of weather and climate information; barriers to drought risk reduction and use of weather/climate information

• Methods: mail survey and 48 face-to-face interviews

Knutson, C.L., T. Haigh, M. Hayes, M. Widlham, J. Nothwehr, and M. Kleinschmidt (2011) Farmer Perceptions of Sustainable Agriculture Practices and Drought Risk Reduction in Nebraska, USA, Journal of Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, 26(3): 255-266

Sustainable Adaptations to Drought and Climate Variability in Agricultural Production Systems Across Nebraska (2004-2006;UNL collaborators)

Drought Risk Management on the Ranch Great Plains focus (2006-2012)Ranchers; UNL/SDSU Extension; NRCS

Questions: effects of drought on ranch operations in the Great Plains, drought management strategies; drought plan and process, and recommendations

Methods: 21 telephone interviews with rancher/advisors involved in drought planning; deliberate dialogue (workshop); case studies, and advisor input

Managing Drought Risk on the Ranch website:http://drought.unl.edu/ranchplan/Overview.aspx

Haigh, T., and C. Knutson, Role of Perceived Control and Planning in Ranch Drought Preparedness, Great Plains Research, in press

Knutson, C. L., and T. Haigh, 2013. A Drought Planning Methodology for Ranchers in the Great Plains, Rangelands. Vol. 35 (1), pp. 27-33.

Combining Climate Science and Social Science to Develop Decision Support Tools for Corn Producers and Advisors (2011-2016)

Linda Stalker Prokopy, PhDU2U Project Director, Associate Professor

Purdue University5

U2U Team

State climatologistsCrop modelersAgronomistsEconomistsSocial scientistsRCC staffNOAA staff

U.S. CORN BELT

• Nearly one-third of global supply• Over $50B to US economy

Current Work

• Model the impact of climate and farm management on crop productivity and profits– Using past and future climate scenarios

• Understand beliefs and concerns about climate change and willingness to use climate information– Surveys and focus groups (also network analysis)

Models and Data Stakeholder InputDecision Support Tools

Crop Modeling and Data Analysis

• Develop an ensemble of crop models on a 4-km grid, Midwest– DSSAT, Hybrid-Maize, ISAM

– Range of agronomic outcomes for various climate scenarios (past & future)

• Impact of climate and management on productivity and profits– Agroclimatic trends analysis (1900-2011)

– Regional ENSO analysis

– NASS ‘field work days’ climatology – trends, patterns, future scenarios

– Effects of crop mix, climate, etc. on capital investment decisions (case studies)

Objective 1: What are the contributions of anomalous weather to crop variability and implications for future management options?

Producer Survey• CS-CAP partnership• Mail survey of +19,000 farmers• 22 HUC6 watersheds, 60% of US

corn production• Data joined to NASS Ag Census

Advisor Survey• Web-based survey of 8,000+ advisors

– All advisors in pilot states, Extension in 12 states• Crop consultants, Extension, bankers/lawyers, agro-business, state and

federal, crop associations, etc.

Climate Needs Assessment Surveys

Survey Question Topics

• Type and timing of farm management strategies• Influence and use of weather/climate information • Climate change concerns and beliefs• Risk management strategies, roles, responsibilities• Influential information sources

Arbuckle, J., L. Prokopy, T. Haigh, J. Hobs, T. Knoot, C. Knutson, A. Loy, A. Mase, J. McGuire, L. Morton, J. Tyndall, M. Widhalm. 2013. Climate change beliefs, concerns, and attitudes toward adaptation and mitigation among farmers in the Midwestern United States. Climatic Change Letters. Vol. 117 (4), pp. 943-950.

Prokopy, L., T. Haigh, A. Mase, J. Angel, C. Hart, C. Knutson, M. Lemos, Y. Lo, J. McGuire, L. Morton, J. Perron, D. Todey, M. Widhalm. 2013. Agricultural Advisors: A Receptive Audience for Weather and Climate Information? Weather, Climate, and Society, Vol. 5 (2): 162-167.

• Linking oceanic indices to multiple-year droughts and wet periods; effects on ag production and water systems

• Center for Research on the Changing Earth System (Maryland); U.S. Army Corp or Engineers; NOAA Climate Services; State of Montana

Questions: impacts of multiple-year drought and wet periods on ag production and water systems; potential use of seasonal to multiple-year climate outlooks for management activities (based on oceanic indices)

Methods: face to face interviews; 7 deliberate dialogue (workshops); case studies (Kansas City; Great Falls, and Lincoln), basin-wide survey of community water systems, and expert advisory panel

Mehta, V.M., N.J. Rosenberg, C.L. Knutson, J. R. Olsen, N.A. Wall, T.K. Bernadt, M.J. Hayes, 2013: Decadal Climate Information Needs of Stakeholders for Decision Support in Water and Agriculture Production Sectors: A Case Study in the Missouri River Basin. Weather, Climate, and Society, 5, 27-42.

Mehta, V.M., N.J. Rosenberg, and K. Mendoza, 2012: Simulated impacts of three decadal climate variability phenomena on dryland corn and wheat yields in the Missouri River Basin. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 152, 109-124.

Mehta, V.M., N.J. Rosenberg, and K. Mendoza, 2011: Simulated impacts of three decadal climate variability phenomena on water yields in the Missouri River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47, 126-135.

Decadal climate variability impacts, management, and information needs in the Missouri River Basin (2006-current)

Specific Tasks:(1) develop retrospective drought and wet period scenarios

using statistical modeling of DCV indices and their associations with hydro-meteorological variables in the Basin

(2) conduct sectoral impact evaluations through use of the Hydrologic Unit Model of the United States (HUMUS) and the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) driven by the retrospective scenarios

(3) Gather impact information on recent drought and wet periods and explore potential for developing future decadal climate outlooks with stakeholders during three regional workshops in Kansas City, MO; Helena, MT; and Lincoln, NE

Potential Applications of Decadal Climate Predictionsin Water and Agriculture Sectors in the Missouri River Basin

Cody L. Knutson1, Vikram M. Mehta2, Norman J. Rosenberg2, J. Rolf Olsen3, Nicole A. Wall1, Tonya K. Bernadt1, and Michael J. Hayes1 1 National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska – Lincoln, Nebraska

2 Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Maryland3 U. S. Army Corps of Engineers – Institute for Water Resources, Virginia

IntroductionAt least three decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena -- the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient oscillation, and the west Pacific Warm Pool SST variability -- significantly impact the hydro-meteorology of the Missouri River Basin.

From 2008-2010, the team assessed the effects of these long-term sea surface temperature phenomena on water supplies and crop yields in the Basin, along with the perceptions of stakeholders about their DCV information needs and the potential applications of DCV outlooks in the basin’s water and agriculture sectors.

Financial assistance for the study was provided by the Sectoral Applications Research Program, Climate Program Office , U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Dr. Cody L. KnutsonNDMC, SNR, UNL

402-472-6718 / cknutson1@unl.edu

Gathering input from 90 representatives from agriculture, water and electric power utility, transportation, natural resources and government sectors

Modeling Results:

Association of positive and negative phases of DCV phenomena with streamflow in three sub-basins in the northern Missouri River Basin.

EPIC simulation of DCV impacton spring wheat yields in the MRB

HUMUS-SWAT simulation of DCV impact on water yield in the basin

Potential Applications of DCV Outlooks:

Agriculture: Guidance for future crop selection and cattle stocking rates, appropriate land-use, irrigation development, pesticide and fertilizer applications, and insurance coverage

Municipal water: Guidance for water infrastructure investments, water uses and pricing, land use planning, and flood protection

River Management: Guidance for reservoir operations, barge transportation viability, recreation and fisheries management

Energy (hydropower, coal, and nuclear): Guidance for infrastructure development, fuel purchases, marketing, and effluent requirements

Summary of Findings:• Substantial associations between hydro-meteorological anomalies and PDO, TAG, and WPWP DCV patterns in the basin

• Need for climate and societal impacts information about decadal droughts and wet periods

• Users beginning to think how they would use decadal climate and impacts information, even the current phases of major DCV phenomena

• Many potential barriers to producing and using decadal climate outlooks, but users eager to work with climate scientists

• Missouri River Basin a very important and ‘fertile’ region to sow seeds of climate services, but sustained efforts required to build credibility of climate science and scientists

Contact Information:

Predictability and Prediction of Decadal Climate and its Societal Impacts in the Missouri River Basin: A Regional Study Integrating Earth System, Hydrologic, Agricultural, Economic and Land Use Models

• 2011-2014• Center for Research on the Changing Earth System, Texas A&M University

Specific Objectives:(1) assess simulations and hindcasts of two decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena

(PDO and TAG) and their effects on the Basin's hydro-meteorology by global EaSMs (GEaSMs)

(2) downscale simulated and hindcast data from relatively coarse resolution GEaSMs to relatively high resolution as input to water and crop yield models

(3) quantify decadal predictability of water and crop yields in the Basin, using downscaled GEaSM data and HM observations-based DCV scenarios in HUMUS-SWAT model

(4) quantify value of adaptive actions given decadal predictions of water and crop yields in terms of potential economic and other impacts, using FASOM and RIVERSIM models

(5) develop an experimental decadal climate and impacts prediction system for the Basin using hydrologic, crop, and economic models; and downscaled data from GEaSMs, along with DCV scenarios based on observed HM data; and assess their effectiveness via interactions with stakeholders and policymakers.

Participatory modeling – Stakeholder advisory team/watershed stakeholders

Missouri sub-basin “Golden Triangle” (north-central Montana)

Proposed: selection of 1 or 2 watersheds for detailed analysis todevelop credible scenarios of future DCV events for use incontingency planning (if-then scenarios)

Status of State Drought Planning in the U.S.

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URL: http://www.drought.unl.edu/Planning/PlanningProcesses.aspx

NDMC 10-Step Drought Planning Process

• Created in 1990

• Revised in 2005

• Increased emphasis on drought mitigation

• Monitoring and early warning system– assess, communicate, and trigger action– foundation of a drought mitigation plan

• Vulnerability assessment – who and what is at risk and why?

• Mitigation and response actions– actions/programs that reduce risk and impacts

and enhance recovery

Most processes and plans in the past focused on monitoring and response

Essential Drought Plan Components

Ex) Nebraska Municipal Water Supply, Health, and Energy Subcommittee

Drought Impact Ranking1. Municipal water supply shortages2. Rural water district mechanical problems3. Private well water quantity and quality problems4. Excessive irrigation pumping/aquifer conflicts5. Mental anguish6. Industrial users drawing down aquifers7. Health problems from blowing dust8. Temperature extremes/increased electrical

usage

Colorado Drought Mitigation and Response Plan2010-2011Prepared as Drought Annex to:Colorado Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan and Emergency Operations Plan

Vulnerability Assessment

Inspiration: Fontaine, M., and A.C. Steinemann. 2009. Assessing vulnerability to natural hazards: An impact-based method and application to drought in Washington State. Natural Hazards Review 10(1):11-18.

- Instream flows and hatcheries - highest impact scores are counties with most junior water rights

Concluding thoughts…

• Our assessments are largely project-based; few basin-wide

• Several studies qualitative / some quantitative (or both)

• Progression toward more quantitative/integrated assessments

• Integration can be challenging• Integrating models and perspectives• obtaining data; identifying meaingful vulnerability metrics

• Some local resistance to climate change funding and adaptation (e.g. grant proposals and farmer/advisor survey)

Cody Knutson cknutson1@unl.edu

National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources

University of Nebraska-Lincoln

Contact Information:

Risk Assessment Committee

Task 1: Conduct a Drought Impact Assessment

Task 2: Rank the Most Pressing Impacts

Task 3: Conduct a Vulnerability Assessment - understand where and why impacts occur?

Task 4. Identify Risk Management Options - actions to implement before, during, and after drought

Task 4. Prioritize Risk Management Options - recommended actions based on criteria agreed to

Hawaii Water Supply Sector Vulnerability Colorado Agricultural Vulnerability

Takle et al., in prep.

Climate-based decision calendar for corn

Drought Risk Atlas (DRA): • Coming Soon!

• Set to launch in spring 2012

• ~3000 stations archived

• 139 clusters/regions developed and analyzed

• SPI, SPEI, PDSI, sc-PDSI and Deciles through 2010

• Weekly gridded maps for all parameters back to early 1900s

• Created to answer questions about the characteristics of drought:

• Frequency/return periods• Duration• Trends• Intensity• Spatial extent