floating pv: global markets and perspectives€¦ · new installed floating pv capacity per year...

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Floating PV: Global Markets and PerspectivesInternational Solar Day 2018May 15, Oslo

Stanislas Merlet - Solar Energy ConsultantMulticonsult Oslo

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Credit: Multiconsult

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Credit: Multiconsult

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Credit: Blue Oak Energy

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Credit: Multiconsult / Building Energy

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Credit: Multiconsult

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Credit: Ciel et Terre

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Main Advantages

• Deployment of PV plants on existing reservoirs that saves land space / land acquisition / land preparation costs

• Better yield due to the cooling effect of the water

• Limited evaporation of the water under the plant

Credit: Ciel et Terre

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FPV: Forecast 2018

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Total 1 185 5 521 61 890 71 872 118 218 643 100

An

nu

al In

stal

led

Cap

acit

y [k

W]

Source: Multiconsult

+ 444 %

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Asia is Running the Market

66%

28%

3%

2% 1%

2017

China Japan South Korea Taiwan Others

44%

31%

16%

5%4%

2018 e*

China Indonesia South Korea India Others

New installed floating PV capacity per year per country

Source: Multiconsult

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Scenarios 2025

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

6 500

7 000

7 500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

An

nu

al In

stal

led

Cap

acit

y [M

W]

Historical data Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario

Source: Multiconsult

• High scenario: 22.4 GW cumulated

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Estimated LCOE

• Capex: 1,13 - 1,14 USD/Wp

• LCOE base case: 10,4 USDc/kWh

• Assumptions:

- Capacity 50 MWp

- Yield 1 420 kWh/kWp.yr

- Operation 20 years

- Degradation rate 1%

- OPEX 1,3% of CAPEX

25% higher than benchmark ground-mounted

incl. O&M, insurance, replacement cost

- Debt portion 60%

- Debt cost 8%

- Debt term 10 years

- Equity cost 13%

- Discount rate 9%

- Inflation 3,5%

- Corporate tax rate 20%

Source: SERIS, summer 2017

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Main Challenges

• Anchoring has to be designed according to extreme wind loads, water depth, water flow, water level variations, waves, etc.

• Logistics can be consequent

• Environmental impact still poorly documented

Credit: Ciel et Terre

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Technology Race

• Ciel et Terre• 4C Solar• Sumitomo Mitsui• NRG Energia• Reservoir Solar Company• Ocean Sun• K-Water• Solaris Synergy• Ibiden Engineering• Koine• Sunfloat• Swimsol• LG CNS• Adtech Systems• Takiron Engineering• +++

Credit: Ciel et Terre

Credit: 4C Solar Credit: NRG Energia

Credit: Reservoir Solar Company

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Offshore?

Challenges:

• Corrosion

• WavesCredit: Swimsol

Credit: Swimsol

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Credit: Ocean Sun

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Trend: Hydropower / Floating Solar Power

Many advantages:• Electrical infrastructure• Dry season = high solar irradiation• Support day-time peak load for evening

peaks• PV variability compensated by fast-

responding turbines• Increased generation for same water

flow

Credit: Ciel et Terre

Source: NORPLAN/Multiconsult

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“[…] We think the potential of FPV coupled with hydro is potentially at terawatt scale. […]”

- Lu Zhao, Head of PV System Technology Group at SERIS (PV Magazine, October 2017)

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Thank you for your attention!

Stanislas Merlet - Solar Energy ConsultantMulticonsult Oslo+47 91 13 14 93stanislas.merlet@multiconsult.no

multiconsult.no

SALT WATER FLOATING PV200 kWpENGINEERING DEMO PROJECT

CLIENT: OCEAN SUN

YIELD ASSESMENT | SYSTEM DESIGN

AND LAYOUT | INTEGRATION WITH STORAGE & DIESEL

2017 - 2018

Photo: John Alvsvåg

SELECTED REFERENCE

multiconsult.no

OPPROTUNITY ASSESSMENT, KYRGYZSTANFLOATING SOLAR / HYDRO HYBRID

CLIENT: ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

SITE ASSESSMENT | CAPACITY BUILDING | PILOT PROJECT DESIGN

2017

Photo: John Alvsvåg

SELECTED REFERENCE

multiconsult.no

SALT WATER FLOATING PV4 MWpTENDER AGENT

CLIENT: CONFIDENTIAL

TENDER DESIGN | SITE STUDY | TECHNICAL & LEGAL ADVISORY | IPP

FRAMEWORK

2017 - ongoing

Photo: John Alvsvåg

SELECTED REFERENCE

multiconsult.no

PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDY HYBRID MT COFFEE, LIBERIAFLOATING SOLAR / HYDRO HYBRID

CLIENT: KfW

PRELIMINARY DESIGN | YIELD ASSESSMENT | HYBRIDIZATION

2018

Photo: John Alvsvåg

SELECTED REFERENCE