floating pv: global markets and perspectives€¦ · new installed floating pv capacity per year...
TRANSCRIPT
multiconsult.no
Floating PV: Global Markets and PerspectivesInternational Solar Day 2018May 15, Oslo
Stanislas Merlet - Solar Energy ConsultantMulticonsult Oslo
multiconsult.no
2
Credit: Multiconsult
multiconsult.no
3
Credit: Multiconsult
multiconsult.no
4
Credit: Blue Oak Energy
multiconsult.no
5
Credit: Multiconsult / Building Energy
multiconsult.no
6
Credit: Multiconsult
multiconsult.no
7
Credit: Ciel et Terre
multiconsult.no
8
Main Advantages
• Deployment of PV plants on existing reservoirs that saves land space / land acquisition / land preparation costs
• Better yield due to the cooling effect of the water
• Limited evaporation of the water under the plant
Credit: Ciel et Terre
multiconsult.no
9
multiconsult.no
10
FPV: Forecast 2018
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Total 1 185 5 521 61 890 71 872 118 218 643 100
An
nu
al In
stal
led
Cap
acit
y [k
W]
Source: Multiconsult
+ 444 %
multiconsult.no
11
Asia is Running the Market
66%
28%
3%
2% 1%
2017
China Japan South Korea Taiwan Others
44%
31%
16%
5%4%
2018 e*
China Indonesia South Korea India Others
New installed floating PV capacity per year per country
Source: Multiconsult
multiconsult.no
12
Scenarios 2025
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000
6 500
7 000
7 500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
An
nu
al In
stal
led
Cap
acit
y [M
W]
Historical data Low scenario Medium scenario High scenario
Source: Multiconsult
• High scenario: 22.4 GW cumulated
multiconsult.no
13
Estimated LCOE
• Capex: 1,13 - 1,14 USD/Wp
• LCOE base case: 10,4 USDc/kWh
• Assumptions:
- Capacity 50 MWp
- Yield 1 420 kWh/kWp.yr
- Operation 20 years
- Degradation rate 1%
- OPEX 1,3% of CAPEX
25% higher than benchmark ground-mounted
incl. O&M, insurance, replacement cost
- Debt portion 60%
- Debt cost 8%
- Debt term 10 years
- Equity cost 13%
- Discount rate 9%
- Inflation 3,5%
- Corporate tax rate 20%
Source: SERIS, summer 2017
multiconsult.no
14
Main Challenges
• Anchoring has to be designed according to extreme wind loads, water depth, water flow, water level variations, waves, etc.
• Logistics can be consequent
• Environmental impact still poorly documented
Credit: Ciel et Terre
multiconsult.no
15
Technology Race
• Ciel et Terre• 4C Solar• Sumitomo Mitsui• NRG Energia• Reservoir Solar Company• Ocean Sun• K-Water• Solaris Synergy• Ibiden Engineering• Koine• Sunfloat• Swimsol• LG CNS• Adtech Systems• Takiron Engineering• +++
Credit: Ciel et Terre
Credit: 4C Solar Credit: NRG Energia
Credit: Reservoir Solar Company
multiconsult.no
16
Offshore?
Challenges:
• Corrosion
• WavesCredit: Swimsol
Credit: Swimsol
multiconsult.no
17
Credit: Ocean Sun
multiconsult.no
18
Trend: Hydropower / Floating Solar Power
Many advantages:• Electrical infrastructure• Dry season = high solar irradiation• Support day-time peak load for evening
peaks• PV variability compensated by fast-
responding turbines• Increased generation for same water
flow
Credit: Ciel et Terre
Source: NORPLAN/Multiconsult
multiconsult.no
19
“[…] We think the potential of FPV coupled with hydro is potentially at terawatt scale. […]”
- Lu Zhao, Head of PV System Technology Group at SERIS (PV Magazine, October 2017)
multiconsult.no
20
multiconsult.no
Thank you for your attention!
Stanislas Merlet - Solar Energy ConsultantMulticonsult Oslo+47 91 13 14 [email protected]
multiconsult.no
SALT WATER FLOATING PV200 kWpENGINEERING DEMO PROJECT
CLIENT: OCEAN SUN
YIELD ASSESMENT | SYSTEM DESIGN
AND LAYOUT | INTEGRATION WITH STORAGE & DIESEL
2017 - 2018
Photo: John Alvsvåg
SELECTED REFERENCE
multiconsult.no
OPPROTUNITY ASSESSMENT, KYRGYZSTANFLOATING SOLAR / HYDRO HYBRID
CLIENT: ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK
SITE ASSESSMENT | CAPACITY BUILDING | PILOT PROJECT DESIGN
2017
Photo: John Alvsvåg
SELECTED REFERENCE
multiconsult.no
SALT WATER FLOATING PV4 MWpTENDER AGENT
CLIENT: CONFIDENTIAL
TENDER DESIGN | SITE STUDY | TECHNICAL & LEGAL ADVISORY | IPP
FRAMEWORK
2017 - ongoing
Photo: John Alvsvåg
SELECTED REFERENCE
multiconsult.no
PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDY HYBRID MT COFFEE, LIBERIAFLOATING SOLAR / HYDRO HYBRID
CLIENT: KfW
PRELIMINARY DESIGN | YIELD ASSESSMENT | HYBRIDIZATION
2018
Photo: John Alvsvåg
SELECTED REFERENCE