f.j. dentener, c. cuvelier, m.g. schultz, o. wild, t.j. keating, a. zuber, s. wu ,
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F.J. Dentener, C. Cuvelier, M.G. Schultz, O. Wild, T.J. Keating, A. Zuber, S. Wu, C. Textor, M. Schulz, C. Atherton, D.Bergmann, I. Bey, G. Carmichael, R. Doherty, B. Duncan, G. Faluvegi, G. Folberth, M.G. Vivanco, M. Gauss, S. Gong, D. Hauglustaine, P. Hess, T. Holloway, L. Horowitz, I. Isaksen, D. Jacob, J. Jonson, J. Kaminski, A. Lupu, I. MacKenzie, E. Marmer, V. Montanaro, R. Park, K. Pringle, J. Pyle, M. Sanderson, S. Schroeder, D. Shindell, D. Stevenson, S. Szopa, R. Van Dingenen, P. Wind, G. Wojcik, G. Zeng
North America as a Source and Receptor North America as a Source and Receptor of Hemispheric Ozone Pollution: of Hemispheric Ozone Pollution:
Seasonal Variability, Uncertainties, Seasonal Variability, Uncertainties, and Policy Implications and Policy Implications
Joint Assembly, Fort Lauderdale, FL, May 28, 2008
Arlene M. FioreA33-E01
Wide range in prior estimates of intercontinentalsurface ozone source-receptor (S-R) relationships
Assessment hindered by different (1) methods, (2) reported metrics, (3) meteorological years, (4) regional definitions
Few studies examined all seasons
ASIA NORTH AMERICA NORTH AMERICA EUROPE
annual mean
events
seasonal mean
Studies in TF HTAP [2007] + Holloway et al., 2008; Duncan et al., 2008; Lin et al., 2008
events
seasonal mean
annual mean
Surf
ace
O3 c
ontr
ibut
ion
from
fore
ign
regi
on (p
pbv)
A.M. Fiore
Objective: Quantify & assess uncertainties in N. mid-latitude S-R relationships for ozone
BASE SIMULATION (21 models): horizontal resolution of 5°x5° or finer 2001 meteorology each group’s best estimate for 2001 emissions methane set to 1760 ppb
SENSITIVITY SIMULATIONS (13-18 models): -20% regional anthrop. NOx, CO, NMVOC emissions,
individually + all together (=16 simulations) -20% global methane (to 1408 ppb)
TF HTAP REGIONS
A.M. Fiore
Simulated vs. observed monthly mean surface O3
CENTRAL EUROPE
Surf
ace
Ozo
ne (p
pb)
High bias over EUS in summer and early fall
EASTERN USA
OBS (CASTNet)
MODELS MODEL ENS. MEAN
Month of 2001 Seasonal cyclecaptured over Europe
Greater uncertainty in results for summertime NA
OBS (EMEP)
A.M. Fiore
North America as a receptor of ozone pollution: Annual mean foreign vs. domestic influences
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
NA
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
NA
NA EU EA SA EU+EA+SASource region:(1.64)
Full range of 15 individual models
Annual mean surface O3 decrease from -20% NOx+CO+NMVOC regional anthrop. emissions
domestic= 0.45
∑ 3 foreign
“Sum 3 foreign”“domestic”
ppbv
“import sensitivity”
Seasonality?
A.M. Fiore
North America as a receptor of ozone pollution: Seasonality of response to -20% foreign anthrop. emissions
SAEUEA
SUM OF 3 FOREIGN REGIONSSpring max
Similar response to
EU & EAemissions
Apr-Nov(varies by
model)
15- M
OD
EL M
EAN
SU
RFA
CE
O3 D
ECR
EASE
(PPB
V)
Spring (fall) max due to longer O3 lifetime, efficient transport [e.g., Wang et al., 1998; Wild and Akimoto, 2001; Stohl et al., 2002; TF HTAP 2007] A.M. Fiore
North America as a receptor of ozone pollution:Seasonality of response to -20% foreign anthrop. emissions
CONOx
NMVOC
NOx+NMVOC+CO
MO
DEL
EN
SEM
BLE
MEA
N S
UR
FAC
EO
3 DEC
REA
SE (P
PBV)
Wide range in EU anthrop. NMVOC inventories large uncertainty in the estimated response of NA O3
Comparable response to NOx & NMVOC emissions(but varies by model)
A.M. Fiore
North America as a receptor of ozone pollution: Seasonality in “import sensitivity”
IMPORT SENSITIVITY:
-20% domestic
∑ (-20% 3 foreign)
Surface O3 response to -20% domestic(NA NOx+NMVOC+CO) anthrop. emis.
PPB
VR
ATI
O
0.4-0.8 during spring “high transport season”
~0.2 when domestic O3 production peaks in summer
Response to -20% Foreign > Domestic
(winter)
A.M. Fiore
North America as a source of ozone pollution
Source region:
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.4
NA EU EA SA
ppb
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.4
NA EU EA SA
NA EU EA SA sum3sum of 3 foreign regions
Receptor region: NA EU E Asia S Asia
Full range of 15 individual models
Similar impactfrom 3 foreignregions
Annual mean surface O3 decrease from -20% NOx+CO+NMVOC regional anthrop. emissions
Largest foreign S-R pair
Import sensitivity: 0.45 0.75 0.65 0.45
A.M. Fiore
Surface ozone response to -20% global [CH4]:similar decrease over all regions
Full range of 18 models
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
EU NA EA SA
ppb
EU NA E Asia S Asia
1 ppbv O3 decrease over all regions [Dentener et al.,2005; Fiore et al., 2002, 2008; West et al., 2007]
Estimate O3 response to -20% regional CH4 anthrop. emissions to compare with O3 response to NOx+NMVOC+CO:
(1) -20% global [CH4] ≈ -25% global anthrop. CH4 emissions (2) Anthrop. CH4 emis. inventory [Olivier et al., 2005] for regional emissions (3) Scale O3 response (linear with anthrop. CH4 emissions [Fiore et al., 2008])
A.M. Fiore
Comparable annual mean surface O3 response to -20% foreign anthropogenic emissions of CH4 vs. NOx+NMVOC+CO
ppb
(Uses CH4 simulation + anthrop. CH4 emission inventory [Olivier et al., 2005]to estimate O3 response to -20% regional anthrop. CH4 emissions)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
NA EU EA SA
NOx+NMVOC+CO CH4
Sum of annual mean ozone decreases from 20% reductions of anthropogenic emissions in the 3 foreign regions
Receptor: NA EU E Asia S Asia
A.M. Fiore
Conclusions: S-R relationships for O3 pollution
• Benchmark for future: Robust estimates + key uncertaintiesRobust: NAEU largest; SAothers smallest Uncertainties: Model transport, emissions, chemistry particularly NA in summer, EU/EA -> NA, NOx/NMVOC -> NA
• NA response to foreign anthrop. emissions 40-80% that to domestic anthrop. emissions in spring and late fall
• Reducing equivalent % of CH4 yields an O3 decrease similar to that achieved with NOx+NMVOC+CO over foreign regions (0.4-0.6 ppb for 20% reductions)
www.htap.org for 2007 TF HTAP Interim Reportand information about TF HTAP activities
A.M. Fiore
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