euras-climpact- impact of climate change and related glacier hazards and mitigation strategies in...

EURAS-CLIMPACT

Impact of Climate Change and Related Glacier Hazards and Mitigation Strategies in the European Alps, Swedish Lapland

and the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia

*Hermann Häusler (hermann.haeusler@univie.ac.at), Diethard Leber, Alexander Kopecny, Matthias Bichler & Martin Reindl

**Wolfgang Schöner, Stefan Reisenhofer & Anton Neureiter

***Gerhard Bax

*Department of Environmental Geosciences, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Geography & Astronomy

University of Vienna, Austria

**Central Agency of Meteorology and Geodynamics (Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, ZAMG), Vienna, Austria

***Blekinge Institute of Technology, Karlshamn, Sweden

Barcelona, Thursday 26 of September, 2013

09.30 – 10.15

• Objectives

• Area of Investigation & Project Data

• Climatological Results

• Glacio-Geological Results

• Stakeholders & Mitigation Strategies

• Honouring Gottfried Merzbacher

• Résumé

Content

Objectives & Scope of Project

• Expeditions Tien Shan, Kirgistan: (2009) 2011, 2012

• Expeditions Central Alps, Austria: 2011, 2012

• Presentations at EGU, Vienna: 2011, 2012, 2013

• Presentations at CIRCLE 2: 2011-Chambery, 2012-Innsbruck, 2013-Barcelona

• Bishkek Workshop: 13-17.8.2012

• Presentations at Paro/Bhutan 6.12.2012; Almaty, Kazachstan 13.12.2012; Austrian

Geological Society, Vienna, 24.4.2013; Institute of Geography, University of Vienna,

28.5.2013

Time Table (2011-2013)

Areas of Investigation

www.rockspace.se/climpact

DYURGEROV & MAIER, 2005

Objectives & Scope of Project

Objectives & Scope of Project

General temperature trend on the

territory of the Kirgistan for the

entire period of instrumental

observations 1885-2005

(centigrade; Kuzmichenok, 2003;

Davletkeldiev and Takenov, 2009).

39 meteorological stations

1972

Objectives & Scope of Project

Trend Air Temperature 1960-2000

Multiyear air temperature: + 0,015°C/year

Increase summer air temperature

Decrease winter air temperature

Precipitation ± same at all altitudes

(decrease at higher altitudes)

Trend Air Temperature 1960-2000

Outer ranges: mild, temperate climate, July MAT = 17°C; 700 mm prec.; ELA at 3600-3800 m

Inner ranges: more severe, continental climate. West Terskey Ala Tau: July MAT = 7-8°C; ELA at 4000 m

Inner ranges: Khokshaal Tau: ELA at 4400-4600 m

Glacier Catalogue UdSSR (1968-1982)

Objectives & Scope of Project

The EURAS-CLIMPACT-project aimed at the empirical modelling of glacier

development from climate data for high alpine glaciers during the last fifty years.

The project linked climate modelling (reanalysis data & statistical downscaling)

with glacier modelling using hydrometeorological and remote sensing data (time

series analysis) & DEM data (ERDAS & ARC/GIS).

The study presents the combination of long-term reanalysis data (National Centre

for Environmental Prediction – NCEP) and future scenario data (European Centre

Hamburg Model - ECHAM5) to drive a spatial glacio-hydrological mass balance

model (GERM – glacier evolution runoff model) in order to assess the impacts of

future climate change on glaciers in Austria and Kirgistan.

The evaluation and downscaling of global climate models in Central Asia

contributes to a better understanding of the potential of these models to describe

present climate and future climate under IPCC scenarios.

• GERM (Glacier Evolution Runoff Model)

is a glacio-hydrological model to

calculate runoff from highly glacierized

catchments.

• The climatic input data are daily

temperature and daily precipitation.

• 3D glacier surface geometry is based on

DEM.

• GERM is run on a 25 m grid in daily

time-steps. The system model includes

components for:

Glacier surface mass balance

(accumulation and ablation)

Evaporation

Runoff routing

Changes in glacier surface

topography and glacier retreat

Glacier Modelling

Climatological Data

Additionally, to the station data above climate data from the Central Asia Database (CAD http://www.sci.uidaho.edu/cae/data/) was used for trend analysis.

Mass Balance & Runoff

Future Mass Balance

Future cumulative annual mass balance until 2050 for scenarios A1B, A2 and B1

Goldbergkees (GOK), Austria Golubina (GOL), Kirgistan

Tien Shan Glaciers

Golubine Glacier

Karabatkak Glacier

Inylchek Glacier

Location of Southern and Northern Inylchek Glacier in the east of the central Tien Shan

(base map courtesy of Kuzmichenok, 2002).

2005

Lake Merzbacher 1 & 2

Lower Lake Merzbacher

Peremitschka

Frontal SIG: Stagnation 1900 - 2005

Position of Southern

Inylchek Glacier basically

has not changed during

the last 100 years

Yearly fluctuation of of

bended Southern Inylchek

Glacier is only possible

due to flow of its front (ice-

dam) when Lower Lake

Merzbacher is filled

1903

2005

2005

Remote Sensing Analysis

Change Detection

- Oblique photos from historical

expeditions

- Aerial stereo photos (UdSSR)

- Topographic maps

- Keyhole satellite mission

- SPOT satellite system

- JERS-1 satellite (VNIR)

- IRS-satellite

- Landsat TM, ETM+, OLI/TIRS (8)

- ASTER

- Quickbird, Google Earth

- Rapid Eye

- DEM – Topo/SRTM

- ESRI Imagery Basemap

Change Detection

Upper Lake Merzbacher

Change Detection Upper Lake Merzbacher (1943-2011)

2 km

UTM 410000

Upper Lake Merzbacher

- Staircase terraces Inylchek Valley: Neotectonic vs. sedimentary origin

- Subsurface geology in Northern Inylchek Valley and at confluence (GCO)

- Paleogeographic development of Northern Inylchek Valley since LGM

- Recent surge cycle and paleo surge cycle of Northern Inylchek Glacier

Inylchek-Expeditions 2009-2011

Landsat 7 ETM+ of the Inylchek Glacier acquired August 2006; pan-sharpened; bands 1, 4, 7; ground resolution;

Häusler et al. (2011).

GCO

• Geological setting

• Geomorphological inventory

• Youger fluvial terraces

• Older kame terraces

Inylchek-Expedition 2011

Glacio-Geological Results

Glacio-Geological Results

Glacio-Geological Results

Global Change Observatory (GCO)

GCO

670.00 – 2,500.000 Ωm

Inylchek-Expedition 2009

Subsurface Geology

Inylchek-Expedition 2009

Subsurface Geology

Inylchek-Expedition 2009

Subsurface Geology

6.00 – 30.000 Ωm

Inylchek-Expedition 2009

Subsurface Geology

Inylchek-Expedition 2009

Subsurface Geology

Inylchek-Expedition 2009

Subsurface Geology

Inylchek-Expedition 2009

- The ERT-measurements allowed for distinguishing subsurface hard rock, soft

rock, and ice, respectively dead ice.

- In the Northern Inylchek Valley the ERT-profiles were interpreted as glacio-

geological profiles resulting from retreating Northern Inylchek Glacier

(Häusler et al., in preparation).

GCO

Inylchek-Expedition 2011

Glaci-lacustrine deposits between Lower and Upper Lake Merzbacher

Inylchek-Expedition 2011

HÄUSLER 2012 Sedimentary microstructures at the base of a debris flow diamicton:

laminated silt & clay with disharmonic folds.

Inylchek-Expedition 2011

Inylchek-Expedition 2011

The sedimentological profile reveals

lake deposits overlain by basal

moraine (a-b).

This moraine was deposited by a

glacier, which piled up frontal

moraines (in brown) bordering the

Peremitschka.

This glacier therefore advanced after

a very big lake (deposits c-d) existed

in the Northern Inylchek Valley

(Häusler et al., in preparation).

Inylchek-Expedition 2011

The sedimentological investigation of lake sediments of the Peremitschka (A-B) and

on top of the surged Northern Inylchek Glacier (C) allow for reconstruction of a big

paleolake, existing before the Northern Inylchek Glacier piled up the moraine walls,

separating the Peremitschka from Upper Lake Merzbacher (Häusler et al., in

preparation).

Paleolake with length of at minimum 10.000 m

(Original distance A-C)

Glacier Fluctuations

1) From process analysis of the Southern Inylchek Glacier (SIG) we conclude:

- Positive mass balance of Southern Inylchek Glacier (stable front since 1900) is

caused by both ice flow from the accumulation at 5000-7000 m altitude and

buoyancing of ice-dam and advance of bended glacier opposite GCO, as soon

as Lower Lake Merzbacher is filled.

- Regular advance of bended Southern Inylchek Glacier is depending on an

external factor, namely the daming of Lower Lake Merzbacher during summer

until the water is released through an englacial pipe system.

2) From process analysis of the Northern Inylchek Glacier (NIG) we conclude:

- In recent times the Northern Inylchek Glacier underwent a surge cycle. Positive

mass balance was also caused by both ice flow from the accumulation area, and

interaction of glacier front with Upper Lake Merzbacher. Once the glacier front

buoyanced, the friction at glacier base was drastically reduced, and the glacier

rapidly advanced (surged).

- We term this rapid advancing process as special type of glacier surge, namely

the „Northern Inylchek“ type of glacier surge. The entire recent surge cycle lasted

for at least 100 years.

SIG

NIG

Glacio-Geological Results: Austria

Mapping the geology of moraines and mass movements, and dating geologic events by cosmogenic nuclides.

(Mathias Bichler, Martin Reindl, Hermann Häusler, Jürgen Reitner, Susan Ivy-Ochs, 2011- 2013)

Dynamics of a Younger-Dryas Glacier System in the Sonnblick Region

(Austrian Central Alps) framed by Bølling-Allerød and Preboreal Landslides

Durchgangwald Landslide

Glacio-Geological Results: Austria

Glacio-Geological Results: Austria

Glacio-Geological Results: Austria

Stakeholders & Mitigation Strategies

Two weeks before our workshop an outburst of glacier lake Tez Tor in Ala Archa National

Park south of Bishkek occurred. The Kyrgyz Ministry of Emergency Situations informed

the local population in time.

Bishkek Workshop 13-17 August, 2012

Askar Kutanov (CAREN)

Bolot Moldobekov (CAIAG)

Michal Černý (Geomin)

Stefan Reisenhofer (ZAMG)

Stefan Reisenhofer & Anton Neureiter

Martin Hölzle (Fribourg)

Kanayim Teshebaeva (CAIAG)

Diethard Leber (UNIVIE)

Rahima Adieva (Bishkek)

Helicopter Excursion

Field Work

HÄUSLER & LEBER (University of Vienna):

Bishkek-Workshop 2012: Manual for field mapping of geohazards

Manual for geohazard-mapping

HÄUSLER & LEBER (University of Vienna):

Bishkek-Workshop 2012: Manual for field mapping of geohazards

Manual for geohazard-mapping

HÄUSLER & LEBER (University of Vienna):

Bishkek-Workshop 2012: Manual for field mapping of geohazards

Manual for geohazard-mapping

Glacio-Geological Results: Sweden

Mass balance diagram of Storglaciären

Glacio-Geological Results: Sweden

Stakeholder

Arabaev-University, Institute of Geography, Bishkek (Dr. Rahima Adieva)

Central Asian Institute of Applied Geosciences, Bishkek (CAIAG; Dr. Bolot

Moldobekov)

Geoforschungszentrum Potsdam (Dr. Jörn Lauterjung)

Geomin, Ilhava, Czech Republic (Dr. Michal Cerny)

Kyrgyz National University, Bishkek (Dr. Murataly Duishinakunov)

Kyrgyz-Russian-Slavic University, Bishkek (Department of Meteorology, Ecology

& Environment Protection: Dr. Inna Brusenskaja)

Ministry of Emergency Situations, Bishkek

Ministry of Natural Resources, Bishkek (Dr. Sergei Erokhin)

National Academy of Sciences, Bishkek (Central Asian Research and Education

Network; Dr. Askar Kutanov)

National Information Center, Bishkek (Almaz Bakenov)

Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Department of Gegraphy, Dr. Bulat

Mavlyudov)

State Agency of Hydrometeorology, Bishkek (Itibaev Sagyndykovich)

United Nations Development Programme, Bishkek (UNDP: Environment and

Disaster Risk Management)

University of Idaho, Moscow, Idaho (Department of Geography: Dr. Vladimr

Aizen)

University of Tashkent, Uzbekistan (Dr. Gleb Glazirin)

World Glacier Monitoring, University of Fribourg (Department of Geosciences: Dr.

Martin Hölzle)

New Paper on Gottfried Merzbacher

20.3.1907

Résumé of EURAS-CLIMPACT

Impact of climate change and related glacier hazards and mitigation

strategies in the European Alps and in the Tien Shan Mountains, Central Asia

- Modelling the climate–glacier behaviour in the Austrian Alps and in the Tien

Shan for 1950-2010 & calculation of future scenarios until 2050 based on

climatological data, reanalysis data (NCEP), future scenario data (ECHAM5), remote

sensing data & DEM data.

- Detailed field investigations on glacier change in the Northern and Central Tien Shan

(Kirgistan), and in the Central Austrian Alps.

- Risk assessment of glacier lake outburst floods, of glacier surges, of mass movements

following glacier retreat as well as neotectonic processes in the Northern and Central

Tien Shan, and design of mitigation strategies in the Kyrgyz Republic.

- Strong stakeholder involvement in the Kyrgyz Republic as well as in the Central Austrian

Alps.

Stakeholder

Austrian Ministry of Science & Research

(37.590/0001-II/4/2010)

Acknowledgements

We thank you for your attention!

EURAS-CLIMPACT

Impact of Climate Change and Related Glacier Hazards and Mitigation Strategies in the European Alps, Swedish Lapland and the Tien Shan

Mountains, Central Asia