eric boldt warning coordination meteorologist national weather service los angeles/oxnard august 20,...

Eric BoldtWarning Coordination MeteorologistNational Weather Service Los Angeles/OxnardAugust 20, 2015

EL NIÑO OUTLOOK 2015-16

• Ocean continues to reflect sustained and strengthening El Niño conditions

• Greater than 90% chance of an El Niño this winter

• Forecasters unanimously favor a “strong” category

Latest ENSO* InformationAugust 2015

El Niño Advisory in effect

* ENSO stands for El Niño Southern Oscillation

Normal Pacific Pattern

El Niño Pattern

Global Satellite on August 12, 2015

Clouds

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Last Four Weeks

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies – One Year

Latest weekly (Aug. 17) value of Niño 3.4

region is +2.0° C

Sub-Surface Temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific (0-300m)

Comparison of SSH - 1997, 2015

Pacific Decadal Oscillation

- Cool phase since 1997- Warm phase past year

ENSO Model Predictions

Neutral

Summer Winter

Weak to Moderate

Strong

Classic El Niño Winter Impacts

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

21.59

18.9320.89

33.19

20.86

30.57

Past Strong (6) El Nino Rainfall in Los Angeles CA[includes 4-year prior rainfall]

Inch

es

?

1957-58 1965-66 1982-83 1991-92 1997-98 2015-16

53-54

61-62

68-69

87-88

11-12

1972-73

78-79

average

93-94

• El Niño tilts the odds of above normal rainfall for southwest California this winter

• The strength of this El Niño is the most difficult prediction; favors a strong event

• One El Niño winter season will not end the drought (over 30” rainfall deficit in 4-years)

• Prior to the rainy season, we should be prepared for a dangerous wildfire season

Conclusions

Thank You!805-988-6623 eric.boldt@noaa.gov

weather.gov/losangeles

@NWSLosAngeles weather.gov/losangeles NWSLosAngeles